NBA Draft: Primed To Tumble
The 2011 NBA Draft is just hours away from kicking off at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. This is a time of hope and optimism for teams that failed to make the playoffs this past season, a chance to add a player that could change the direction of their franchise.
These same players are about to hear their names called and have the opportunity to live out their dreams of playing in the NBA. However, this can also be a very stressful time for potential draft picks. Will they hear their name called? Will they be a lottery pick? Are they slipping further down the draft then they expected?
Every year there are risers and fallers in the draft and this year is unlikely to be any different. Here is a look at several players that are primed to tumble lower than many expect.
Bismack Biyombo
A year ago no one had heard of Biyombo. Six months ago he was thought of as someone who one day might play in the NBA. A month ago he was slated as a top-ten pick in the draft.
That is a meteoric rise, so if Biyombo does happen to fall out of the lottery, it will still be impressive. Biyombo’s stock has fallen recently because of a one-on-none workout where he failed to impress scouts and executives. Biyombo’s strength is in his defense and rebounding, skills that don’t translate very well during individual shooting workouts.
For weeks Biyombo has been penciled in to the Detroit Pistons with the number eight pick, but since that ill-fated workout they have soured on him some. If the Pistons pass on Biyombo he most likely will fall out of the top ten and possibly out the lottery altogether; his floor seems to be the New York Knicks at 17.
Jonas Valanciunas
Most scouts and executives regard Valanciunas as the best European prospect in the draft; the problem is complications with a buyout with his European team may force him to remain in Europe for one more year. This means he won’t be able to come to the NBA until the 2012-13 season.
Teams looking for immediate help are going to have to pass on Valanciunas, despite his considerable upside. Recently, Valanciunas has been projected to go as high as third to the Utah Jazz, but more likely fourth to the Cavaliers, fifth to the Raptors, or sixth to the Wizards.
With the conditions of his possible buyout, he could drop out of the top ten or the lottery altogether. Most likely, he lands somewhere in between the Wizards at six and the Houston Rockets with the last pick in the lottery at 14. Whichever team has the patience to wait for Valanciunas, may end up with the steal of the draft.
Kemba Walker
The UCONN standout and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player was thought to be a lock in the first seven picks, but now there is a growing concern he could slip into the late lottery or fall out of it altogether.
Walker hasn’t done anything wrong, but he hasn’t blown any team away with his workouts either. For weeks the Raptors at five and Kings at seven have been linked to Walker, though now it appears both teams may take a pass.
The Raptors just named defensive minded Dwane Casey as head coach. It’s possible the Raptors may opt for a bigger, defense first point guard, instead of an offensive playmaker like Walker. Kings’ management is said to like Walker, but owners Joe and Gavin Maloof are said to be leaning towards taking BYU’s Jimmer Fredette.
For a franchise in need of some buzz and ticket revenue, it’s quite possible the Maloofs overrule their basketball people and force the team to take Fredette. If this happens, where Walker lands is anyone’s guess.
{AUTHOR_BOX}The Pistons at eight are a possibility, but they are said to be looking for a frontcourt partner to pair with Greg Monroe and they recently tendered a qualifying offer to Rodney Stuckey. The Bobcats at nine have D.J. Augustin, the Bucks at ten have Brandon Jennings, the Warriors are loaded with small guards, and the Jazz are likely to take Brandon Knight with the third overall pick.
If Walker does slip past the Kings, it may come down to whether or not the Suns or Rockets are interested. If neither team is, this past season’s college basketball hero may find himself outside of the lottery.
Reggie Jackson
The point guard from Boston College is one of the biggest enigmas in the draft. He shut down his workouts early in the process due to a knee injury prompting many to believe he has a promise from someone in the first round.
While he is a first-round talent, he is taking an awfully big risk not interviewing or sharing his medical records with teams that might have an interest in him. If Jackson didn’t get a promise, or if for some reason that promise doesn’t work out, Jackson could find himself out of the first round.
Why would a team draft a player in the first round guaranteeing him a contract when they aren’t allowed to talk to the player? Wouldn’t most teams take a player like Darius Morris from Michigan, who is willing to workout for just about anyone?
Jackson’s floor seems to be the Miami HEAT with the first pick in the second round, but that would be a big fall for a player of his talent, and could cost him a lot of guaranteed money.
Enes Kanter
An honorable mention needs to go to Kanter because he has been talked about as a possible number one overall pick. However, it’s quite possible he could fall all the way to the Wizards at six.
That’s not a huge drop, but anytime a potential top pick can fall out of the top five, it’s worth mentioning. The closer teams get to draft night, the less risk teams want to have at the top of the draft. That means players like Biyombo, Valanciunas, and Kanter could slip behind so called safer picks like Kawhi Leonard of San Diego State University, Klay Thompson of Washington State University, or Marcus Morris of Kansas.
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