NBA Rumors Chat With Steve Kyler 11/3/11

HOOPSWORLD Publisher Steve Kyler will hold his weekly chat at 3:30pm EST on Thursdays. Drop in your questions regarding NBA trades, the NBA Draft, roster moves or questions about your team.

  1. derek

    Hey Steve, Can you write a full article about what 1-2 ways the Magic may use amnesty/stretch and move to cap space. It looks like in the end trading Jameer (or PO off), Bass, Duhon might make CP3/Deron happen in Orlando.

    • Steve Kyler

      I covered this in Twitter a couple of days ago (shameless plug for why you should follow me @stevekylerNBA)

      The smartest move for the Magic would be to use the Amnesty on Hedo Turkoglu; however I wouldn’t use it this year… I’d wait until next year.

      Gilbert Arenas has an Opt-out in his contract next year, so using the Amnesty on him would be a waste.
      There is no scenario in which Orlando can be a real free agent player this year, whenever that starts… The smarter play would be to bring back the guys you have, add what you can add with an exception and see what this team looks like.

      The Magic believed in Gilbert when they traded for him, I just don’t see them cutting him.

      You play out this season and see what Gilbert has left, you’ll also get a better feel for where Dwight’s head is at.

      Using the Amnesty on Hedo next year costs the Magic $23.815 million. 75% of his remaining two years comes off the tax and the salary cap based on what’s been talked about in the ongoing CBA talks.

      Using the Amnesty on Hedo leaves $2.95 million next year and a final year worth $3 million.

      I let Gilbert Arenas play out this season and let him know that if he does not Opt-Out of his deal, I would use the new Stretch provision on his remaining two contracts years. The Stretch rule would allow the Magic to spread out the salary cap and tax hit and payments on his remaining $43.15 million over five years (the number of years left on the deal, times two plus one year). The math on this is his annual payment would be $8.63 million. If he has played well this year, I’d make it clear in the press that re-signing Gilbert would be a serious consideration if he Opt-outs.

      The Message… you can make $8.63 a year at home… or you can sign a new deal worth $8.63 and retire in Orlando… Given Gilbert’s history… not sure there is a free agent market for him and at 30 years of age is he finished living the NBA life?…. Either way, his $20.807 million drops to $8.63 going forward.

      If Daniel Orton doesn’t show a pulse in camp, I do not exercise his third years clearing another $1.18 off the books.

      These three moves bring the Magic from $80.694 million including a Qualifying Offer for Ryan Anderson and the $19.536 owed to Dwight in his final year – down to $58.47 million.

      That number includes the ending deal of Jameer Nelson, the Partial guaranteed deal of JJ Reddick and the final year of Brandon Bass – which combined work out to $17.999 million in tradable assets.

      If Dwight walks or demands a trade, Orlando moves into the driver’s seat the following summer with less than $20 million on the books.

      Player   2011-2012   2012-2013   2013-2014
      Gilbert Arenas    8,630,000  8,630,000
      Dwight Howard  18,091,770  19,536,360  
      Hedo Turkoglu    2,953,963  3,000,000
      Jameer Nelson  7,800,000  7,800,000  
      J.J. Redick  6,750,000  6,190,000  
      Brandon Bass  4,000,000  4,000,000  
      Chris Duhon  3,500,000  3,500,000  3,750,000
      Quentin Richardson  2,446,200  2,627,400  2,808,600
      Ryan Anderson  2,244,601  3,234,470  
      Daniel Orton  1,097,520    2,134,593
         45,930,091  58,472,193  18,188,600

  2. turin55555

    Hi Steve. I have always believed that this lockout can be labeled as a success once a provision(s) limits/denies big market teams (i.e. LAL and Miami in particular) in their ability of buying and accumulating superstars in their fold. What these 2 teams did the past decade somehow defeated whatever competition there is to be fought. Do you in anyway agree?

    • Steve Kyler

      Not sure that the primary goal, but its on the list of things the NBA wants to change or at least curb.

      The Primary goal is to get the NBA back in line economically. The concept that gets lost in all of this is that under the old deal, if every team played at or near the salary cap line, every team would be profitable.But go back and look at last year… you had less than 10 tens near the salary cap, most were over with many way over.

      Thats where this problem originated, the $300 million the NBA says its losing is related the the $300 to $400 more NBA teams are spending versus what the league as a whole can generate.

      When that is fixed, the lockout will be deemed a success.

  3. David

    Who do you think the Pistons will amnesty if that is in the new CBA? Also who will they target in free agency perhaps Gasol or Nene (He prob will resgin in Denver)

    • Steve Kyler

      My candidates would be Richard Hamilton, Charlie Villanueva or Jason Maxiell for Amnesty… Rip is owed $24 million for two years so it may be smarter to stretch him than Amnesty him… $24 over five years is an easier nut for a new owner that shelled out almost $400 million to buy the team.

      Charlie V is owed $24.18 over the next three years… Amnesty him and you knock his $7.4 million down to a cap hit of $1.8 million… combine that with dropping Rip down from $12 million to $4.8 million the Pistons end up at roughly $34.8 million in salary commits and a serious free agent player.

      The Pistons can target Nene and Gasol, but with so many teams with cap space Detroit isn’t landing either of those guys. Keep in mind they have been singing the Greg Monroe is our future song too loudly for an agent to beleive his guys gets the limelight, they’d have to over pay and I am not sure thats going to happen.

      That is how they got into this mess.

  4. dyrese

    should the knicks trade for a young vet pg like devin harris,or pg tht may be underrated like bayless

    • Steve Kyler

      They won’t… They have Chauncey who they believe in completely. They have Toney Douglas who was solid last year and they drafted Iman Shumpert to be in the point guard mix. I don’t see either guy, who are really scoring-guards making the Knicks better. Chauncey is a true playmaker… its would be smarter to target Steve Nash than Devin Harris or Bayless.

  5. Chris

    If David Stern wants to end the lockout, he should just threaten to cancel the entire season immediately unless the players accept the current offer. He can claim it’s fairer to the arenas by giving them closure so they can book other activities instead of this week-to-week limbo. The players will fold, and they’ll be back playing within a month. Can Stern make the decision to cancel at any time?

    • Steve Kyler

      No one wants to set fire to $3 billion in revenue yet… both sides are too close.

      Despite how this gets played in the media, there is a very workable deal on the table for both sides and I think your going to hear the Players say they want to make a deal after their meeting today if the NBA will give in on some other outstanding system issues.

      These venues would rather have NBA games than the things that can cobble together, even if that means being dark for a few more weeks… If Saturday’s meeting is more chest thumping, then maybe its time for napalm, but right now this is exactly where it needs to be… the ball is on the 5 yard line… unless we’re talking Colts football, this things is too call to call off the season or derail the process with an empty threat.

  6. Jeremy

    is this a good idea?
    by the end of the 2 season of contract (ignore rookies & 2yr contracts), owners/players can decide to terminate the contract, but with the follow rule:
    Owner: must pay out in full original next coming season salary. and 25% of each original remaining salary will count against the cap.
    Player: first season of next contract cannot be higher than the original next yr salary. and terminate option only exist 1 per 2 contract (other than resigning after 1st contract after rookie deal with same team)
    Owners can benefit from cutting bad contract out, and players get to excape from situation they dont want to be in.
    Good idea?

    • Steve Kyler

      The stretch provision being worked into the labor deal is a better solution… at anytime a team can invoke the provision and payoff a guy for the amount remaining on his contract, stretched out over the number of years left times two plus one.

      The new number counts against the cap and the tax, and thats a fair tool for bad decisions or nasty injuries.

  7. Eric P

    Hi Steve, if the trade the Pacers almost made for OJ Mayo last year went through, would they still have went after George Hill? Who do you think has the better potnetial of the 2?

    • Steve Kyler

      I don’t think so on the trade.

      As for who’s better?… eye of the beholder really… both are solid players. I think OJ has more dynamic ability, meaning he can give a 30 point night where George Hill is a steady producer.

      I still think OJ has the ability to be a top flight NBA player if he were in another situation, but if I had either I wouldn’t be unhappy. Both are solid players.

  8. Eric P

    Steve, why cant Fisher go to the players and have them vote on a 50/50 BRI split on secret ballet? I bet majority would take it

    • Steve Kyler

      Not completely his decision.

      There is an Executive Committee that would have to agree with Derek.. while he carries the title of President, he is not the end all authority… There are rules and a process that he has to follow as outlined in the Players Association charter.

      Equally, the Players Associations feels they have the pulse of the players based on their meetings and I’d say in an almost arrogant way the thought process is if you don;t show up to meetings and voice your concern, then we’ll lead as we were elected.

      How frequently has your Congressman or Senator reached out to gauge your thoughts on a piece of legislation he’s working on… not often, because the arrogant belief is you elected me to make hard decisions for you.

      Players have access to Derek Fisher and Billy Hunter any time they want, so with that in mind the Players Association feels like they know what the rank and file want.

  9. Eric P

    If you were GM of the Pacers would you sign D West and J Crawford, sign one of the two, or save your money for the great FA class of 2012?

    • Steve Kyler

      David West – yes, depending on the total price. I am not maxing out David West, but a four years $40 million deal… I’d do that.

      Jamal Crawford – No, he still thinks he should be a starter and he’ll want more money than Indiana should pay for a sixth man.

  10. Eric P

    Why cant the owners and players agree to a “sliding scale” of BRI? Meaning the split is decided by pre determined goals, if they exceed the revenue goal, players get more, if they dont reach the goal owners get a bigger split. seems fair no?

    • Steve Kyler

      The owners don’t feel like they need to.

      The Players have offered this, but from the Owners side of things they feel like they brought this thing this far, lets finish the job and get a labor deal that solves the problems for everyone.

      Its not that they “can’t” make a deal, they absolutely could… the Owners just won’t budge. There is a reason everyone with a pen has heard that the small market teams won;t ratify a 50/50 labor deal… thats designed to put the onus on the Players to agree now.

      As for fair… Fair goes out the window when talking about how to SHARE $4 billion… each side is trying to get as much as they can, because this deal is going to govern at least the next 6 to 10 years of basketball… every concession point now, is compounded tomorrow.

  11. Eric P

    Do you believe Greg Oden will ever be healty enough to fulfil the lofty expecttions he had coming into the draft? Why or why not?

    • Steve Kyler

      He’ll never meet expectations, but will he return and play basketball at a high level… I think so.

      There is something to consider about Oden and guys who face crazy injuries and I learned this from Grant Hill in Orlando.

      Athletes get their bodies into a cyclic routine… how can a player survive an 82 game NBA schedule, its about routine… you get up at this time, you shoot around at this time… you play at this time… you recover at this time… rinse and repeat.

      Over time you body adapts to that stress calendar – when players get injuries, especially season ending injuries like Greg has had he breaks that cycle and more importantly he breaks that endurance building window not to mention development time.

      Greg’s body is older and its going to be harder for him to adjust to the NBA grind – his window is much smaller and his propensity for injury is greater because of all the breaks in the cycle.

      This is oft why older players go from one injury to the next and can;t get and stay healthy. Greg is at that point where if he can’t get going, his body may never allow him to.

  12. Eric P

    How did TJ Ford fall so far so fast? I personally believe he wass unjustly cast aside by Coach O’Brien, whose system wants PG’s to function as SG’s. Am I off in this assesment?

    • Steve Kyler

      I consider TJ a good friend and I’ve said this to him… when things got tough in Indiana he quit… he quit caring and working because there was no point. He was gonna be in the doghouse regardless.

      Its hard for competitive players to endure losing and everywhere TJ has been its been one losing situation after the other.

      I saw TJ in Vegas this summer at Impact Basketball and he was in great shape and is really looking forward to free agency. I think he likes the idea of choosing his next situation so he can be part of a winner for a change.

      I wouldn’t say your wrong on the assessment… but TJ is responsible for a lot of what happened to him and he’s ready for a fresh start.

  13. Shad

    Steve will the new CBA finally help small market teams compete?

  14. Eric P

    Stev, who has displayed more talent Blake Griffin in his first two years or a young Amare Stoudamire in his first couple years? I still remember Stoudamire destroying the Spurs and exting up Tim Duncan in the playoffs a few years ago

    • Steve Kyler

      Blake… no disrespect to Amar’e, but Blake has more tools than Amar’e had coming in, and if Blake continue to develop he’ll be a better all around player than Amar’e mainly because Blake is a better rebounder and defender.

      If we’re on a playground and I got either I’d be pretty damn happy, but if I were picking, I’d pick Blake.

  15. Dave

    What do you think of the HEAT trading Bosh for a star on a rookie contract (curry, Jennings, wall) and then either amnesty or trade Miller, House and Joel. And with the money saved we sign gasol to a $12m/yr deal. (this is assuming the cap is still around $58m and gasol giving riley a verbal commitment)

    I respect your opinion but I think the Warriors would be absolutely crazy not to at least consider a deal around Bosh & Curry. First of all, Bosh is a top 3 or 4 PF (in most ppls minds) and Curry is at best, top 6. Then you gotta factor in Ellis’ ability to take over the point… All in all, I think your letting Bosh’s last season (playing next to 2 ball dominant guys) overshadow his first 7 years (routinely 22/11).

    • Steve Kyler

      I keep saying this… Miami got to the NBA Finals in the first year with Wade, Bosh and LeBron… they had no real center, a less than passable point guard and a second year head coach.

      Not sure I am breaking that up when everyone who doesn’t get a max deal is going to consider the HEAT’s exception?

      I also think Wade and LeBron would go nuts if Bosh were traded and it did not return a STAR point guard in his prime… they were a package deal and Pat Riley and Mickey Arison agreed to it.

  16. Jack

    Hey Steve. Is there any chance the new CBA addresses the disparity in TV revenue sharing? Lakers and Celtics make well over 20 million a season in local TV deals. Charlotte is lucky to make 10 million. Shouldn’t the NBA eliminate these disparities and move toward the NFL/NHL “all-for-one” DiectTV deal?

    • Steve Kyler

      No… there will be revenue sharing for smaller market or low revenue teams, but no… the TV deals are market based deals, thats not going to change in the CBA, thats not governed by the CBA.

      The NBA has a solid national TV deal with ESPN and Turner thats get their teams on national TV and as the product in smaller markets gets better because of the new CBA the Charlotte deal will be worth more because they’ll have a chance to compete with the Lakers and Knicks.

      The easiest way to command more TV money is to have a good product… I get paid to watch basketball games and would give up money not to have to watch some NBA teams because of how bad they are… when that changes the value of local TV deals will improve.

  17. John L

    Steve, Do you think the Fisher issue will be the demise of the CBA benefiting the players with the BRI split.

    • Steve Kyler

      Much ado about nothing… clearly someone had an agenda and when to the right source to get it out there.

      I can tell you I have had people inside this process ask me why someone like Fisher is controlling or steering this process long before Fox Sports wrote about it.

      The Players voted Fisher in, and obviously we’re at the point where checks are missed and everyone is pointing fingers.

      I think the Derek will be fine… I think Saturday’s meeting will clear a lot of a deal is reached.

      The media is used in this process, thats all thats occurred… A warning shot was fired, everyone gets back in line from here.

      Thanks for all the questions. I am out of time. Make sure you are following me on Twitter (@stevekylerNBA). I’ll catch you all at the same time next week.