NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 2/8/13

1. Greg

   With trade deadline approaching, which player(s) that haven’t been mentioned in reports could you see being dealt?

   • Larry Coon

     There could be a surprise in store before the deadline, but I think everyone I’m aware of has already been discussed ad nauseam.

2. David

   Assuming the Lakers re-sign Dwight Howard this summer, with the cost of Pau Gasol in 2013-14 expected to be as much as $80-90 MILLION (salary and highest marginal luxury tax), what are the odds that (a) the Lakers trade Pau at that point; and (b) if Pau is to be traded, that Jim Buss dictates luxury tax avoidance be one of the primary goals of such a trade?

   • Larry Coon

     Yes — besides his current injury, one of the reasons I think Pau doesn’t get moved before the deadline is because he’s insurance in case Dwight leaves this summer. But if they manage to re-sign Howard, that makes Pau tradeable — especially if D’Antoni is still around and still can’t figure out how to use him.

     If we’re going to project tax consequences next season, let’s see if we can construct a realistic model. The Lakers are currently committed to $79.6 million, and if they re=sign Dwight they’ll be at $100.4 million. We have to add at least $3 million or so for them to fill-out the roster, so let’s put them at $104 million, just to round it out. If the tax level is $72 million, that equates to a $94.5 million tax.

     I think it’s pretty likely they’d amnesty MWP, so let’s drop $7 million off their payroll (his salary minus replacement player cost), and their tax drops to $63.75 million (total savings from amnestying MWP is over $30 million! Pack your bags, Ron-Ron).

     At that point if they want to trade Pau they’d likely be looking for further salary savings. Let’s say they can flip him for acceptable talent and save $5 million in the process. Their tax bill drops to $45 million, so total savings (salary + tax) would be an additional $24 million or so. I think the tax consequence are absolutely going to factor into their decision making.

     I think the Lakers are a team that would be willing to face the tax consequences in order to keep a winning team together. But the current team isn’t a winning team.

3. Kyland Heuvel

   Since the Bulls and the Raptors are discussing a Boozer-Bargnani swap how do they make the trade work? Because doing the trade straight up doesn’t work salary cap wise because of Boozer’s enormous contract. What other players might be added to make the trade work?

   • Larry Coon

     Here’s a fact that may surprise you — Boozer for Bargnani works straight-up.

     If a team is trading away $9.6 million to $18.2 million, they can take back the outgoing salary plus $5 million. Bargnani makes $10 million. Boozer makes $15 million. Fits like a glove.

4. Dave

   What is the chance percentage wise that boozer gets moved for bargnani?

   • Larry Coon

     31.

5. bigkennykane

   good day Larry, lakers question for you: la will pay a huge penalty and clearly they are not good this year; does la can dtoni, eat dtonis contact, retool in the offseason, and amnesty kobe along with trading gasol to create a roster around d12? pickup cp3?

   • Larry Coon

     I think canning D’Antoni is a realistic possibility after the season if he shows no signs of turning the ship around (pun intended, although most probably don’t realize that a Laker is actually a ship). This will be especially true if Dwight makes clear that he doesn’t want to play for D’Antoni. Will the Lakers want to pay $8.5 million to two ex-coaches while shelling out for a third? It certainly wouldn’t be their preference, but it’s disastrous for them if they don’t win in the short term while they’re spending so much money and Kobe’s window is so short.

     They’re not going to amnesty Kobe, although a Gasol trade might be a realistic possibility if they are able to re-sign Howard. Their plans seem to be centered around 2014, when nobody is currently on the roster except Nash (and at 40, Nash will be a candidate to be waived so the Lakers can utilize the stretch provision and cut his cap hit to around $3 million). Assuming they re-sign Dwight, they’ll have plenty of money to go shopping. Until then, they do what they can to tweak their current lineup into a winner, and eat the big luxury tax penalty for a year.

6. Ben

   Could you see the Rockets making a realistic play for Love if/when he’s available? This current core needs time to grow and Love would be a perfect fit

   • Larry Coon

     Daryl Morey has been collecting assets that he could either build around or flip if a big-time talent became available (as happened with Harden, and almost happened with Howard). If Love is available, he’d take a serious look.

7. George

   The big rumour of the day is Bargnani for Boozer. Personally i hate the idea of this trade. I’m not saying it’s a bad trade as far as value of the trade but more that the player doesn’t fit their system, address any of their needs and puts them so close to the luxury tax that they will not be able to sign anyone to fill out their lineup next year. This doesn’t make them a top level team so why do it. Wouldn’t Gortat be a better option? Thoughts?

   • Larry Coon

     I haven’t heard any corroboration of the trade, but Marc Stein absolutely does his due diligence. That said — yeah, I agree about the financial implications, but putting Boozer on the court with Kowry, DeRozan & Gay certainly has some potential.

     I know Phoenix is asking for a lot for Gortat, and Toronto isn’t exactly in “sell high” mode with Bargs.

8. Ashley

   If Lakers amnesty Kobe, shouldn’t his trade exception keep him from having to go to any other team? At the time the exception was agreed upon, there was no such thing as amnesty, and the essence of the exception is to keep him from having to go to a team which he doesn’t choose.

   • Larry Coon

     Well, first of all — short of a catastrophic injury, there’s no way the Lakers are going to amnesty Kobe. None. If he blows out a knee and his career is over, then that’s something different. But it would take something like that.

     That said, the league has always maintained that trades and waivers are two totally different beasts. In fact, that’s why they were so chagrined last year when the arbitration decision said guys like Jeremy Lin retained their Bird status through the amnesty process (which utilizes waivers). But the decision was carefully worded enough to extend only to Bird rights, and not any other feature like no-trade clauses.

9. Jake

   How do you feel about the chances the Lakers re-sign Dwight Howard?

   • Larry Coon

     I think the Lakers are in the driver’s seat. Part of it is the extra money and the extra year the Lakers will be able to provide — if Dwight was 100% healthy he might be more willing to take a risk with that fifth year, but given his recent health issues he will likely want to lock-in that additional year while he can.

     Part of it is that he knows he wants to win, and knows teams like the Lakers and guys like Kobe are what he needs — they know how to win, and do what it takes to get there.

     I also think he will be in a position to some extent to insist in changes, and the Lakers will likely cave to his demands. For example, if Dwight decides that he and D’Antoni are incompatible, that may seal D’Antoni’s fate.

10. SatBchMagicer

    Hi Larry, let’s use ORL’s Hedo Turkoglu in 13/14 as an example. His guaranteed salary is $12M/ non-guaranteed is $6M; if Magic waive him prior to regular season start- do they only owe him the $6M, with that amount ‘cap’ counted? What if ORL waits until say Jan. 4, 2014 to waive him- would same $6M, ‘cap’ count still apply?

    • Larry Coon

      Yep, he has a $12 million salary and $6 million in compensation protection, and there are no conditions to that protection (i.e., it doesn’t change to full on any given date, except the league-wide Jan 10 cut-down date).

      As long as Hedo is on the Magic’s roster he will continue to count $12 million against their team salary. If the waive him, then his salary goes away and his compensation protection counts against their team salary. His $6 million compensation protection means he will count AT LEAST $6 million against their team salary, because he is guaranteed to make at least that amount. For example, if he is waived after he has already earned $6.5 million, then $6.5 million will count against their team salary. If he is waived before he has earned $6 million, then $6 million will count. And if he is waived after Jan 10 (or not waived at all), $12 million will count.

11. Tyreke

    Are you impressed with how things are going in Brooklyn? Home sellouts? Fans? Revenue? Arena?

    • Larry Coon

      I haven’t been there yet to check out the arena or see a game (hint..hint…), but I’ve been hearing it’s great. I’ve also heard that per-game revenues are much higher than expected.

12. Zlatko

    Pau for Caron Butler and Deandre Jordan. Who says no?

    • Larry Coon

      For one thing, DeAndre’s salary extends past 2014, which is a non-starter for the Lakers.

13. Andrew

    What would Brooklyn have to do to be eligible for a S&T deal after this season?

    • Larry Coon

      They would have to be under the apron, which is the point $4 million above the tax line. We don’t know what the tax level will be next season, but let’s use $72 million as a projection. The Nets would have to be below $76 million. Right now they’re committed to $85.6 million for next season, so they’d have to shed at least $10.4 million.

      But keep in mind that they team has to finish below the apron AFTER the trade, so if the sign-and-trade adds salary, they’d have to be further under.

      So hypothetically, let’s say the Lakers and Nets wanted to do a Dwight sign-and-trade. Dwight will make $20.5 million in his next contract, so they’d have to trade away $30 million. That would require some combination of Kris Humphries ($12 million), Joe Johnson ($21 million), Brook Lopez ($15 million) and Gerald Wallace $10 million) adding up to $30 million — and they couldn’t all go to the Lakers, since LA could only take back about $25 million for Dwight.

      Sp while Brooklyn receiving a player in a sign-and-trade is theoretically possible, it doesn’t seem likely.

14. Josh

    Hi Larry- Love your chats! Question about front office strategy: the Suns have the lakers’ first round pick if it’s in the Lottery, but it turns into Miami’s if they make the playoffs. Would the Suns send some of their bench guys to Portland for pennies knowing that it would help them make the playoffs and, thus, make it more difficult for the Lakers to get the 8th seed, therby increasing the odds that the Lakers pick is in the lottery?

    • Larry Coon

      Interesting strategy! While something like this would certainly occur to any good front office executive, few would actually try something with so many variables and therefore so much risk of failure.

15. Varun

    Why do you think Howard is delaying his decision and can’t the Lakers just force him to make up his mind at the earliest so atleast they can plan trades based on that? Is this too much player power?

    • Larry Coon

      They’re not allowed to have discussions regarding a future contract, and Dwight can’t make any kind of commitments now.

      Dwight has many more options in free agency, and won’t make any decisions until he gets there. He could sign an extension with the Lakers, but an extension doesn’t work to his advantage so he won’t.

16. Jermaine

    When can players/owners opt out of the CBA deal? Do you think games will be missed again?

    • Larry Coon

      Either side can opt out by giving notice by Dec 15, 2016. If they do, the CBA terminates following the 2016-17 season.

      I think they will definitely opt out. The owners definitely will, and the players, while they shouldn’t, will probably want to as well.

      A lot depends on the new union leadership, but I think it’s a pretty realistic possibility we’ll miss games again.

17. LanceNYC

    can you do a sign and trade with a RFA?

    • Larry Coon

      Yes.

18. MICHAEL

    Is there any team that has the cap space and players to blow away the Lakers for D12 before the trade deadline? Does he really have the heart and maturity to lead a team to the promised land without Stan Van Gundy?

    • Larry Coon

      I don’t think the Lakers are going to make a deal for Dwight before the deadline unless they’re completely blown-away by a deal. I don’t think that will happen.

      I -do- think Dwight needs more drive & focus, and I think he needs a strong coach on the sideline. Stronger than D’Antoni, anyway. Stan’s not the only coach out there who could work with him, though.