NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 3/15/13

1. Jonathan

   Who does Bynum play for next season?

   • Larry Coon

     The answer to your question — although probably not the answer you were looking for — is “the highest bidder.” I think Bynum’s next deal will be a bellwether for the new agreement. If the new salary restraints are truly effective, then Bynum won’t command a max contract. But he’s a great player (at a value position) when healthy — so will some team take a chance and offer him the max?

     There are three ways a team can limit its exposure here:

     1) Lower salary and/or fewer years.

     2) Performance incentives, such as making a large chunk of his salary based on achieving some minutes-played threshold.

     3) An Exhibit 3 (prior injury exclusion) that lets his team waive him if he’s unable to play as a result of his (specific) prior injuries. (This is what the T-Wolves have with Brandon Roy.)

     Maybe a team will pony up with the full maximum if they also get an Exhibit 3, or maybe (if Bynum wants the security of guaranteed salary) he will have to take a lower base salary or fewer years.

     The ultimate answer to your question is which team will guarantee him the most.

2. Albert

   You’ve mentioned that some teams are preparing for a tax level as low as $71.5M for next season (vs. the league’s $73M projection). Do you have any update on where BRI is tracking (relative to what I assume was a projection near the $4.3B forecast)? With player salaries perhaps rising well above $2.0B, plus another $106M or so in set-off adjusted amnesty payouts, plus another $196M or so in benefits, could the problem that some teams are foreseeing not be so much with revenues but rather that salaries and benefits are so high that it could cause a downward adjustment? Or are they simply being cautious given the harsher tax implications?

   • Larry Coon

     I’ve talked to different teams about what they’re hearing, and $71.5 million to $73 million is the range of answers I received. This was some time ago, however, and I need to poll teams again to see where they are. I don’t have BRI estimates at this point either, except for David Sterns (probably dismissible) claim of $5 billion in revenues.

     At some point closer to the end of the regular season I’ll try to put everything together and see if I can work out the trends and their root causes.

3. Kevin Smith

   Have we seen the best of Tyreke Evans? Does his potential warrant a larger contract?

   • Larry Coon

     I think a change of scenery could help him.

4. SatBchMagicer

   Hi Larry, good to have you back hosting; As comedian Ron White would lead in-’Let’s just say…’, ORL’s Turkoglu is final year contracted for $12M in 13/14(only $6M guaranteed); If Magic waive him prior to regular season games start: If no team signs him for 13/14, ORL just pays the $6M? If team then does sign him, before regular season start, is ORL completely ‘free’ of any $ obligation? What if he then waived by ‘new’ team prior to Jan. 5, 2014? What if he not signed until after Jan. 10, 2014?

   • Larry Coon

     No, since Turkoglu has $6 million in compensation protection, if the Magic waive him then that’s the extent of the money they owe him. If he plays the full season (or at least past January 10) he gets his full $12 million. But if the Magic waive him prior to January 10 and prior to his having earned half his salary, then they owe him just $6 million.

     If another team signs him, then Orlando MAY be able to deduct some of the money they owe him due to set-off (see ).

5. Thegreat

   I know it’s far fetched anyway we see a clippers vs heat nba finals or some dark horse team reach the finals?

   • Larry Coon

     I don’t see the Clippers beating the Spurs or the Thunder in a seven-game series at this point (just look at the head-to-head records). And if the Lakers climb to the sixth seed and face the Clippers in the first round, I’d lean toward the Lakers taking the series as well (note that if the Lakers DO make the sixth seed it will be as a result of playing really well for the remainder of the season, indicating that they’ve made further progress in putting it all together, and that Kobe’s injury didn’t keep him out of action for very long).

     Right now I have the Heat and Thunder in the Finals, although I’ve learned never to count the Spurs out. While a dark horse conference champion is always possible, I’d have to stick with the favorites.

6. Josh Michaels

   If a player is traded on draft night this year, which salary is used for cap matching purposes? His 12-13 salary number or his 13-14 salary?

   • Larry Coon

     The 2012-13 salaries are in effect through June 30. If a draft day trade happens, they will use 2012-13 salaries.

     Note that many times in the past teams have agreed to deals around the draft, but waited until July to execute them because they depended on the new salaries.

7. Harri

   You usually don’t answer warriors question. Can you tell how warriors can retain Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry without going over salary cap. Can they buyout Jefferson or Biedrins to get under cap ?

   • Larry Coon

     Of course I do. It may seem that way, but realize: 1) There are 30 teams, so on average you’d expect only about 3% of the questions to be Warriors questions — actually less since a large percentage of questions aren’t team specific; and 2) There are a disproportionate number of questions representing various teams. I.E., the Lakers and Knicks generate lots of questions, the Warriors not so much. 3) I’m in LA and am therefore closer to the Lakers & Clippers, so tend to get more relating to those teams for that reason alone.

     That said, Jefferson & Biedrins can both opt out (Jefferson has a player option and Biedrins has an ETO). I expect both to opt-in, and neither would be likely to take a buyout. And even if they did, or if the Warriors waive them at their full salary, they would continue to count against the cap.

     Right now the Warriors have about $73.8 million signed for next season. I don’t see that changing without a really favorable trade.

8. Kyle Davidson

   I’m in a fantasy league that is seeking to mimic the CBA’s Salary Cap as closely as possible. We understand the method of computation (CBA FAQ #14) but we’re unclear on WHEN a team’s total salary is calculated. Specifically to determine whether they lose their Bi-Annual and Mid-Level Exceptions. Can you shine some light on how this will work using this coming off-season as a guideline?

   • Larry Coon

     If a team’s team salary ever drops (in any instant) so far that the sum of their contracts plus all their cap holds is less than the cap, then they lose their exceptions. It’s not just a one-time calculation — it’s a continuous thing.

9. John

   Do you think that the Thomas Robinson/Donatas Motiejunas platoon is HOU long-term PF solution?

   • Larry Coon

     I think Daryl Morey will be much more patient with Robinson than the Kings were.

10. Peter

    A saw that if Bynum doesn’t play 76ers wouldn’t have to pay cuz insurance would kick in and pick it up. Is this the case for all players? Or is this just with Bynum?

    • Larry Coon

      Insurance helps, but it doesn’t pay for everything. It pays for 80% of the player’s guaranteed base salary after a 41-game waiting period. So the team still pays more than half, even if the player misses the entire season.

11. Billal Herbawi

    IS it even financially feasible for the Cavs to get Lebron if he opts out after next season(sans Lebron taking a massive paycut.)

    • Larry Coon

      The Cavs have $35 million committed for 2014-15 right now. If they don’t sign anyone for more than one season this summer (other than first round draft picks, of course) they could generate a lot of cap room — just about enough to give LeBron the full max, if he chooses to return to Cleveland.

12. Rich L

    What year will the Knicks get cap relief from Amare’s salary. Does Chandler, Melo come off together 1 year later?

    • Larry Coon

      Amare has an ETO for 2014-15 which he will surely not invoke (i.e., he will stay with the team), so the earliest you can expect to see his salary come off the Knicks’ books (barring a trade) is 2015. Chandler comes off that same year. Melo is in the same situation as Amare, with an ETO for 2014-15.

13. Slade

    Is the cap hold the same as the max a player can get on the open market? I’m looking at Earl Clark and wondering what kind of offers he can get this summer??

    • Larry Coon

      The cap hold for a free agent depends on the type of free agent and the player’s previous salary — see . It’s just an approximation that is based on known attributes of the player’s situation and avoids value judgments.

      Since Clark will be a Larry Bird free agent and his salary is below the average, his cap hold will be 190 percent of his current $1.24 million salary, or about $2.36 million. Note that this is just a placeholder on the Lakers’ cap, and says nothing about the amount he might actually get from the Lakers or any other team. A team is free to offer Clark the full maximum, if they choose to (not that any team will).

14. Brandon

    How much value, in terms of strength of free agency, do the Hawks have with their upcoming cap room? Do they have enough to make a huge splash?

    • Larry Coon

      The Hawks currently have about $21.6 million committed to six players, and Mike Scott & DeShawn Stevenson aren’t fully guaranteed. If they walk away from all their free agents — including Josh Smith — they’ll have a significant amount of cap room. If there are about $5 million in cap holds and there is a $60 million cap, then that’ll give then about $33.4 million in spending power.

15. David

    Hey Larry,

    I’m a little confused about the sign & trade provision now that the taxpayer limitations are set to take effect. Can a tax team perform a sign and trade and send a player out but not be a recipient of one. Or can they take back players but they have to be a certain amount below the tax-line? I dunno, I’ve become confused, can you simplify this sign & trade mess?

    • Larry Coon

      A team cannot receive a player who is signed-and-traded if at the conclusion of the trade the team will be $4 million or more above the tax line.

      There is no restriction on teams signing-and-trading their own players.

      There is no restriction on teams receiving a player in trade who is not signed-and-traded (even if that trade includes another team receiving a signed-and-traded player).

      There is no restriction on teams receiving a player who was signed-and-traded in a previous trade.

16. Albert

    “Right now I have the Heat and Thunder in the Finals, although I’ve learned never to count the Spurs out.”

    Who do you pick to win this Finals? (I want to see if you can bring yourself to write it.)

    • Larry Coon

      You win.

17. David

    Is it fair to say expiring contracts are not as valuable as they once were? If it is, why is that the case?

    • Larry Coon

      I think they still have value, especially this year since the progressive luxury tax is starting up. Would you want to pay TWO years of a supertax, or get out in just one by making a trade?

      But in general, with shorter contracts, smaller raises, and a trend toward lower salaries, fewer contracts will be the kind of salary albatrosses that teams are anxious to dump.

18. shy yosef

    when is Kobe up for an extension, It is possible he aggress to something similar to what shaq signed with miami ( lower cost per year but longer contract) to allow them more flexibility going forward?

    • Larry Coon

      Kobe signed an extension in April 2010, making him eligible to sign another one in April 2013. He can’t really do what Shaq did, due to limitations in the new CBA. If he signs an extension next month (the earliest he could do it), he could only add two additional seasons, and the first one can’t be for less than 60% of what he’s making in 2013-14.