NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 3/22/13

1. Deven

   Do you think the Celtics will guarantee Pierce’s contract next season, or will they let’em go and start rebuilding?

   • Larry Coon

     KG has another two years (his last year isn’t fully guaranteed either). I think the two make the most sense as staying or going together — if one stays then both stay, and if one goes than both go (not necessarily in the same deal).

2. Deven

   Larry, have you filled out your bracket? Who’s your pick to win the NCAA National title?

   • Larry Coon

     They play basketball in college? Imagine that.

3. Deven

   Why are some teams reluctant to use the trade exception?

   • Larry Coon

     I don’t think it’s that teams are reluctant to use their trade exceptions. I think it’s that teams won’t use a trade exception just to use it. It’s a great tool for facilitating a trade, provided it’s a trade the team wants to make and would make the team better.

4. Deven

   With Manu being an unrestricted free agent this summer, what’s the most the Spurs will offer him?

   • Larry Coon

     They CAN offer him the maximum salary, but I’m pretty sure they won’t. Tim Duncan took a big pay cut, and I’m guessing they’ll look for Manu to do the same.

5. Deven

   Instead of trading Pau Gasol, why can’t the Lakers just amnesty him this summer?

   • Larry Coon

     Instead of selling your car or trading it in, why not just throw it away (and continue making the payments)?

6. Deven

   Should the Wolves trade Kevin Love this offseason. He’s clearly not happy there?

   • Larry Coon

     I think they should hold onto him for at least a little longer.

     Phil Jackson told a story at Jerry Buss’ memorial service about Kobe’s trade demand back in 2007. He said Buss told Kobe, “If I have a diamond of great value — three, four carats — would I trade it for four one-carat diamonds? Of course not. I can’t make a trade that would replace what you bring to the court.”

7. Deven

   Does the harsher luxury tax kick in on July 1 or sometime later in July?

   • Larry Coon

     July doesn’t matter at all when it comes to the luxury tax. It kicks-in for the 2013-14 SEASON so technically it kicks in July 1, but it isn’t actually measured until the last regular season game of the 2013-14 season — sometime in April 2014. Teams can do what they want in July, and as long as they can get their payroll down by the end of the regular season, they won’t be taxed.

8. Mark

   If LeBron opts out of his contract after next season and Wade and Bosh don’t, could Miami still resign LeBron?

   • Larry Coon

     Yes — the Heat would retain LeBron’s Bird rights. He might have to take a slight pay cut to re-sign — he’s currently signed for $20,590,000 in 2014-15 and couldn’t make more than the 10-year vet maximum or $20,020,875 (whichever is greater) in the first year of a new deal. However, that should be more than made up by the fact that he could lock in an additional two seasons.

9. Dushyant

   hey Larry!
   Im a big lakers fan, and I was wondering do u think realistically, the lakers will be better of amnestying Gasol after this season, or flipping on draft day to get a young college star player ( do u think the lakers have any chance of getting Shabbaz), i know that is wishful thinking, but that would be awesome.

   • Larry Coon

     Why would a team amnesty someone who has trade value? The team has to continue to pay the portion of the salary that’s not picked-up by a new team, and the team doesn’t get anything in return. Do you think Gasol’s stock has fallen so far that he has no trade value left, even at $19 million as an ending contract? I disagree. I think he’d make a great starting center on half the teams in the league.

     But due to the Lakers having Dwight Howard at center (assuming they can re-sign him), the half of the teams on which Gasol would make a great starting center doesn’t include his current team, and Mike D’Antoni hasn’t shown any indication that he can figure out how to make the two play together effectively (of course, Gasol’s injuries haven’t made it any easier). Given the Lakers’ situation and payroll concerns (looming progressive luxury tax) I can easily see the team flipping Gasol for a younger & cheaper player or two — probably a stretch four.

10. Ricardo Vaz

    Concerning Iguodala’s player option for next season, what do you think makes more sense for him? On one hand, opting out may allow him to guarantee a long-term deal right away, and with the risk of injury and so on, this is the safest option. On the other hand, teams will clear cap space in 2014 to make another run at LeBron James, meaning that a lot of teams will be left with cap room and empty hands, leading to Stoudemire, Boozer, David Lee-type deals. What’s your take?

    • Larry Coon

      He’s 29 and still has a few good years left in him. If he plays out the season he’ll enter free agency in 2014 at 30 in — as you say — a good year to be a free agent.

      I expect his agent to start exploring the market before he has to make a decision in order to gauge his value. There’s also the possibility of signing an extension with the Nuggets.

11. Ray

    Probably the biggest question going into the 2013-14 season…

    Will MIA NEED to get rid of one of the huge contract guys, or can they get by by using the amnesty clause on a player like Haslem?

    • Larry Coon

      Miami is committed to about $86.5 million for next season. Let’s assume they stay there, and that the tax level will be $73 million. That’d give them a tax bill of around $25 million.

      If they amnesty Haslem it will lower their payroll to $14.85 million. As long as they are fine with a $14.85 million tax bill, they don’t need to do anything else.

      And I’ll repeat what I’ve said elsewhere in this chat — amnesty is a last resort, not a first choice. I don’t think there’s any way Miami amnesties one of the big three, unless one has a catastrophic knee injury or something.

12. Steve

    Do you see some of the teams that are already in the Tax next year moving their first round picks for Cleveland’s second rounders so they don’t have to pay the gaurenteed money.

    • Larry Coon

      That’s a strategy teams have explored in the past, even before the luxury tax was progressive.

      Just as an example, the scale salary for the 30th pick in the 2013 draft is $880,600, which means the player would typically sign for $1,056,720 (120 percent of that amount). If the player’s team had a payroll of $93 million (about $20 million over the tax line), the player would cost a total of $5,019,420! And remember, it’s the better teams (typically with high payrolls) that draft late in the first round.

13. Deyan

    Hello Larry, any idea why Big Al and Paul Milsap are still in Utah ?

    • Larry Coon

      I’m sure Dennis Lindesy explored the market for both players. I’d say he just didn’t find a deal to his liking.

14. Jim C

    How much money is Prokhorov going to owe in 2016? I ran some rough calculations and came up with roughly eighty three trillion dollars.

    • Larry Coon

      Sounds about right. In preparation for that extra money going out, he’s going to scale back on two or three lunches.

15. tim

    Asked you on twitter no response. Is it mathematically possible for rockets to work 2 sign and trades for CP3 and DH12 the way heat did? Must have threat of signing out right to force SNT. (trade lin/asiK for cap space, refuse option on delfin?)

    • Larry Coon

      Sorry — I’ve been mostly off Twitter (and off the NBA) for the last week or so while dealing with flood damage from a burst pipe in my house.

      Is it mathematically possible, and permissible under the rules of the CBA? Yes. Is there a realistic chance it will happen? I don’t think so. Stamp Daryl’s name on the executive of the year award if he pulls it off.

16. Flip

    For somebody not living in the USA:
    Read an interesting article about salary regarding incoming taxes and living costs. The author said Dwight has to earn 1.6 Dollar in California for every Dollar he can get in Texas (Maybe Dallas). So mathematically it seems that the 80 million / 4 years have a lot more value than the 110 million / 5 years. Do I miss something?

    • Larry Coon

      Yeah, I think that’s overblown. For one, the player plays only 41 games in his home arena, with the other 41 played elsewhere and potentially subject to another state’s jock tax.

      Plus, if you’re going to compare a player’s net income in different states, you can’t look at just income tax. You have to look at other forms of taxes (like property tax), cost of living, differences in endorsement opportunities, and a lot of other things. It’s much more complicated than what the article you read suggests.

17. chris

    In the future what do you for see as far as Pittsburgh getting an NBA Franchise?

    • Larry Coon

      I think they’re pretty far down the list. I think the league’s top priority right now is Seattle, and they have also talked about places like Las Vegas, Kansas City and Anaheim. Plus there’s Stern’s idea about expanding to Europe.

18. abdi

    Can a team offer a 5 year deal to more than one player?

    • Larry Coon

      Yes if you’re talking about re-signing Bird free agents.

      No if you’re talking about extending rookie scale contracts. Only one player (the team’s designated player) pay receive a five-year extension.

19. Thegreatone

    Do you seed any higher seeds being upsetted in this years playoffs?

    • Larry Coon

      Yes, in the West I think the Lakers stand a good chance against whichever team they play, and I think the Clippers are vulnerable to Memphis or Denver even if they get HCA against one of those teams in the first round.

20. Jim A

    Larry,

    Can the Rockets potentially void the remaining years of Royce White’s contract?

    • Larry Coon

      That’s a tricky question — a REALLY tricky question. In addition to being a CBA issue we’re getting into the Americans with Disabilities act and other Federal law. There’s a lot of nuance here, and I think the best answer that anyone can give at this point is “I don’t know.” But you can be sure that if the Rockets try to void his contract White and the NBPA will litigate.

      Mike McCann has written about White with a lot more expertise than I could ever hope to provide. If you’re interested, you should look up what he’s written.