NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 5/23/12

1. Efren

   What do you think of this? im only saying this because i heard chris paul would be the main recruiter this offseason
   Orlando trade with clippers
   orlando gets
   gomes exp contract
   bledsoe 3 year contract very low value great outbreak playoff player that everyone might want on their team and very young
   deandre jordan solid center with potential still because he still young and freak of nature
   butler (shoot first player) 2 years left but shorter and better player than richardson gives way to amnesty hedo
   also nola two second round picks
   for
   clippers get
   dwight howard
   either glen davis or jason richardson long term contract
   salaries match orlando get rid of dwight get good pieces and gets rid of one long contract preferably richardson two 2nd round draft picks from clippers belonging to nola

   • Larry Coon

     Unless Howard signs a long-term contract, the Magic are going to trade him to the team making the best offer. Teams will decide on their own whether to make their offer better or worse on the basis of risk — if they’re risking Howard as a one-year rental, then their offers will likely go down. But a team like the Clippers could decide to assume the risk and field a competitive offer, because they have Chris Paul signed for only one more year and need to convince CP3 & Blake Griffin that they’re serious about winning a title.

     If that’s the case, then a Jordan/Bledsoe offer would be in the running — however, Jordan’s a little too raw and one-dimensional to justify his remaining $33 million over three years, and his contract might scare the Magic away. I’m also not sure the Magic would want Butler, and remember, the Clips signed Butler because CP3 wanted to play with him.

2. Jahrell

   In your opinion do the Brooklyn Nets have to get a top 3 pick in the draft in order for Orlando to trade Dwight there and as of right now are they in the lead to get him ?

   • Larry Coon

     If Dwight is still committed to playing in Brooklyn, then they’re still the front-runners, and the draft pick (if it’s in the top three) would certainly help.

     If he’s waffling about teams, then Brooklyn’s chances drop significantly, especially if they have to convey the pick this year.

3. Papa Legba

   Best value for the money: Who would be your starting five from each conference making less than 9 million per year?

   • Larry Coon

     It’s hard to answer questions like this in a chat, since I’m sure to miss people unless I take a look at all 30 rosters…which I’m not going to do in a chat.

     Just winging it, I can come up with a few names, but interestingly, most of them are in the West. A top-5 in the West might be Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and maybe Serge Ibaka or Kyle Lowry. East would be Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, Roy Hibbert, and here’s where I’d need to start looking at rosters to see who I’ve missed that makes less than $9 million.

     Of course, some of the players I named above (Griffin, Love, Westbrook) are on the last year of their rookie deals, and their salaries will be above $9 million next season.

4. Alex in Burbank

   Larry, do you think the Lakers would entertain the idea of sending Pau Gasol to Minny for Derrick Williams and Michael Beasly? Can that trade even be made? Also would they trade Bynum for Howard? And if they did all that, can they compete for the title with Kobe still a Laker? Thanks!

   • Larry Coon

     I think the Lakers are going to shop Gasol, and send him to the highest bidder. Minnesota would obviously be interested in him, but I’m not sure Derrick Williams would be the best offer they’d receive (Beasley can’t be traded, since he’s about to be a free agent).

     Given Bynum’s performance, personality, and ending contract, they just might roll the dice on a Dwight Howard trade. Remember, they need to be in “win now” mode since Kobe is 33 (which is why I think the idea of trading Gasol for draft picks doesn’t make a lot of sense, unless they can get an immediate impact player). If they do that trade, then whether they still compete depends on what they get for Gasol. If it’s something along the lines of what Houston was going to send for him in December — Martin, Scola and Dragic — they could be right back in the mix.

5. Alex in Burbank

   Larry one more question. Help me understand why “Home Court” helps the home team a whole lot. I know the crowd is pumping you up and makes you play that much better but how come there’s no such advantage when it comes to Baseball or Hockey or Football? I noticed in Basketball HCA could be the difference where as in the other sports, it doesn’t mean squat!! Example #1, The L.A. Kings are 8-0 on the road this postseason. Why is it different in Basketball?

   • Larry Coon

     I don’t remember where I read it, but someone used to keep regular stats on the value of home court advantage, and it came out to about three points per game. That’s enough to sway the outcome, but not make a huge impact. I haven’t seen similar numbers quantified for other sports.

     One reason it could mean more for basketball than baseball or football is that basketball is a high-scoring sport. If an average team scores 100 points (just to use round numbers), then HCA influences 3% of the outcome. A 3% sway in baseball, football or hockey may not be enough to change the score at all.

6. Gregory

   If Mo Williams exercises his option, could the Clippers amnesty him? New team would probably claim at a significant portion of his 8.5 million salary. Clippers then have room to resign Billups and Young. Is he more valuable to trade with expiring contract and could Sterling stand to pay someone who is not playing for him?

   • Larry Coon

     He can always change his mind at the last minute, but I believe Williams said he WILL pick up his option and stay with the team for 2012-13 (and at $8.5 million, who can blame him?). The Clippers could amnesty him, but I have a hard time believing they’d do that — I think he still has enough trade value (on an expiring contract), and there’s no reason to amnesty a player if you can trade him. One idea — given Ramon Sessions’ uneven playoff performance (or if Sessions opts-out), should the Lakers consider trading for Williams (into the Lamar Odom trade exception), reuniting the point guard with Mike Brown?

     If they’re going to amnesty someone, I think Ryan Gomes makes more sense.

7. Will

   Is there any way Brooklyn can trade for Dwight on draft night,considering Lopez/Wallace are free agents?

   • Larry Coon

     The Dwight Howard saga will continue to dominate the NBA headlines this offseason. By now everyone knows that SVG and Otis Smith are out, and Dwight still wants to be traded. Unless he has (another) change of heart and decides to extend in Orlando, there’s no way the team is going to entertain a repeat of last season — they’ll trade him. In fact, their mutual agreement to pick up the option for 2012-13 was precisely to buy the team enough time to make a careful deal, rather than the rush job they were facing at the trade deadline.

     The big question is whether Dwight still has his heart set on Brooklyn. If he does, then that leaves the Nets in the driver’s seat. If not, then other teams are capable of fielding a better offer, especially if the Nets’ draft pick isn’t among the top three (and they lose it).

     If the Nets ARE going to make a deal, I don’t think it’ll be on draft night. As you said, Brook Lopez is entering free agency and can’t be traded, and Gerald Wallace has an unexercised option. If he picks up the option, the team can include him in a deal. Given those logistics, and given the fact that the Magic will want to move deliberately, I think a deal will wait until after July 1.

     The other factor at play here is that some teams may be more willing to acquire Howard without a long-term commitment. The Lakers, for one, might be willing to deal Andrew Bynum (a deal that was pretty close at the trade deadline, and probably would have been completed if Howard didn’t void his option), given that both players’ contracts are ending next summer and the Lakers need to make changes to remain competitive before Kobe’s window closes. The Clippers are another team that could have all their chips on the table at this point — they have one more year to convince Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to extend long-term.

     So if other teams are willing to field competitive offers without a long-term commitment, then the Nets could be on the outside looking in — even if Brooklyn IS Dwight’s preferred destination.

8. Aj Vic

   Will the Heat have enough room under the cap to sign Nash? and will nash sign for less money for a chance to win a champion ship?

   • Larry Coon

     I guess the answer to the first question depends on the answer to the second question. The Heat are going be way over the salary cap, over the tax level, and over the “apron” where teams start losing exceptions. They will have just the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, which will be worth about $3 million. If Nash wants to sign for that amount, then he can join the Heat. I may be wrong here, but I don’t see him signing for $3 million to chase a ring somewhere.

9. Frank

   why do people keep calling amares contract untradable?? he has two yeears left before his contract becomes an “expiring” deal and he CAN still contribute. Maybe he has lost a step or two but he could still avg 20 and 8 esp with a decent PG. Whenever espn mentions him they say he has a 100mil contract that no one will take because its uninsured but if he gets through this season even avg 18 and 8 doesnt it become easier to move? please explain this to me. because it frustrates me ppl would rather boozer then stat

   • Larry Coon

     Amare`e is excluded from the league’s insurance policy. Any team that assumes his contract is doing so without any sort of protection. It’s not just “people” — I’ve heard people in team front offices refer to him as virtually untradeable, or at least, “the least tradeable player in the league.”

10. Hans

    Why don’t more NBA teams offered front-loaded contracts (ala Nick Collison’s)? If it is still legal under the present CBA, it seems bizarre to me why teams needing to get to the salary floor anyway don’t pry interesting prospects from other teams with contracts like these.

    • Larry Coon

      Collison’s was a rare situation (Andray Blatche was another player in the same situation). He got an extension with a signing bonus, but since the team was under the cap at the time, the Thunder were allowed to pay the signing bonus right away (instead of when the extension took effect), and the league treated it like a renegotiation. I talk about this situation in the FAQ .

      Collison’s and Blatche’s cases aside, there are two ways to front-load a contract — with signing bonuses, and with salary decreases in subsequent years. Both these alternatives suffer from the same problem — the player gets less money in total. Unless a team has a ton of cap room, including a signing bonus means that they will have to drop the regular salary in the contract — I talk about this , but it’s pretty technical and hasn’t been updated for the 2011 CBA yet.

      As for front-loading a contract with salary decreases instead of increases, any player would say, “why are you going to pay me less when you can pay me more?” That leaves signing bonuses as the most viable option for doing this. Contracts DO contain singing bonuses, but as I said, they have downsides as well.

11. Devon

    Hey Larry. Do you think the NBA should include the ability to restructure contracts in the next CBA similar to that of the NFL? Do you think the idea will work?

    • Larry Coon

      NBA teams used to have greater freedom to restructure contracts, but that was taken away. The union doesn’t want players to give salary back (restructuring downward), and the league doesn’t like restructuring to spread it out (which lets teams sign more players, which increases total player costs). I’d be surprised to see this change.