NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 5/9/12

1. Lucky

   Larry: After your 5/2/12 forum closed I presented a proposal and expressed it. Since in all likihood it won’t be transferred here,allow me to paraphrase and repeat it. I’m attempting to be creative here so here goes. As a Knicks fan,I am of the opinion it may behoove them to move Amare and his contract since he is now a questionable fit and the Knicks would require the Cap space necessary to reconfigure the roster abit.
   We both know as it stands,uninsured,Stat’s contract is virtually immovable unless it brings back a contract equally as bad if not worse. Hence it is conceivable the only thing that stands in the way of Amare and a new team willing to reasonably satisfy the Knicks needs is INSURANCE against a career debilitating and ending injury.
   Suppose the Knicks self insure and become the insurer of his contract in lieu of a Lloyds of London or any other conventional firm and do so on a sliding scale,excuted at the time permanent disability occurs and prorated accordingly,how would that sit with the League in your opinion?
   Keep in mind,the intention of providing insurance would be intended to make a reasonable trade possible not a direct attempt to circumvent the Salary Cap rules. If there is no provision in the wording of the new CBA for an instance such as this,how can the League frown upon it? In my view it does not mock the spirit of League rules. Providing insurance may be the only way for the Knicks to reasonable value for Amare,be it draft and Cap Space compensation or a player who is a better complement. Is there anything concrete in the CBA that would not allow this? I believe there is a 3mil limit on cash transferring in any trade,but in this case it is not a direct supplement,but rather intended as protection for the new owner of a contract should the player be unable to perform his services for its duration.
   No doubt the Knicks would be taking a high cost risk,but then again they were willing to do so signing Stat in the first place. Thoughts?????

   • Larry Coon

     For one thing, such an insurance policy would be for the team’s benefit, and not the player’s benefit. If the team procures an insurance policy for it’s own benefit, then I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be transferable to a new team.

     That said, I don’t think the Knicks are going to try to get rid of Stoudemire. They’d rather find a way to make what they have work.

2. Eddy

   Some people have argued that there may be legal issues with raising age limits to play in the NBA. Why don’t they try rewarding players who play college ball…at least for the next CBA, would the following proposal be feasible? Offer the standard contract (may start several $100K less than current) to incoming players, according to their draft order…in addition, add, say $100,000 (or other negotiated amount) to that if they take finish 1 year of college, $200K for 2 years, etc.?

   • Larry Coon

     One thing is that the NCAA may see it as an underhanded form of compensation of college athletes.

     That said, the sides are going to meet this year to discuss things like changes to the age limit. I’m sure they’ll be examining “out-of-the-box” alternatives designed to promote players staying in college longer.

3. Wil

   Hi Mr. Coon, how can the Thunder continue their run after next year? I think the small market teams missed their chance to have true competitive balance (by lowering the maximum and making re-signing more lucrative). What to do with Ibaka and Harden?

   • Larry Coon

     The new, sledgehammer-like luxury tax and revenue sharing system are going to fundamentally alter the NBA landscape. They are a mixed bag for OKC — the revenue sharing will help them, but the luxury tax will continue to penalize teams with stacked rosters.

     The model for a successful franchise may no longer be to acquire as much top-level talent as you can, and fill-out the roster with role players. It may turn out to be that teams can no longer thrive with more than, say, two highly-paid players. This may not apply to the Lakers and Knicks (teams with such high revenues that they will be able to take advantage of salary shed by other teams), but it’ll apply to the rest of the league. We’ve already seen signs of teams making strategic moves for the new economy, such as the Mavs letting Tyson Chandler walk away.

4. Deven

   Hi Mr. Coon. What’s the realistic chance Dwight Howard gets traded this summer?

   • Larry Coon

     I think pretty high, but the way Dwight has been flip=flopping, who knows what he’s ultimately going to decide.

     I think the Magic asking Howard to lock in through next season gives them the opportunity to get a deal done on their own schedule. Last year was a crazy pre-season, and they weren’t able to find a satisfactory deal during the trade season — thanks in part to Dwight not knowing what he wanted to do. By having him lock in, they can now trade him, either after the season (for instance, on draft night) or during the offseason. They’ll have plenty of time to negotiate a satisfactory deal — time they didn’t have this season.

     if Dwight comes to them and says he’s decided to stay in Orlando, and is ready to sign an extension, then they’ll keep him. But if he still wants to be traded, or even if he’s still waffling, then Orlando won’t want a repeat of this season. This will be resolved one way or the other before the season starts.

5. Deven

   What can the Knicks do to shed some salary this summer to bring back some key members and to bring in some new players?

   • Larry Coon

     The Knicks don’t have much shedable salary. Melo, Chandler and Stoudemire aren’t going anywhere. They’ll match any offer on Lin, but won’t have to pay more than about $5 million — and even if you argue that his basketball value isn’t $5 million, the prospect of bringing Linsanity to another town will up his value on the free agent market.

     Just between those four players the Knicks are at the cap. They’ll also have Toney Douglas, Dan Gadzuric, Josh Harrellson, Jerome Jordan, Iman Shumpert and REnaldo Balkman on the books, but I doubt any big moves happen with any of those players — and even if a move DID happen, it certainly won’t clear out a bunch of salary.

     Their big decision this summer will be with Landry Fields. If they have to use their full Mid-Level to match Lin, they’ll have a hard cap at the “apron” next year — about $74 million. They won’t have much spending money left over, and it’s questionable whether they’d want to devote a big chunk of it to Fields.

     And I consider JR Smith, and possibly Steve Novak, to be playing elsewhere next season. The Knicks simply can’t afford to keep them.

6. Charlie

   Admittedly, I am very nervous about the Los Angeles / Denver series as I laid an unhealthy bet on the Lake Show. Please reassure me a Kobe led-team will never lose 3 in a row in the playoffs. And how much of a chance are you giving the Nuggets to take this series?

   • Larry Coon

     When the Lakers are playing with a proper sense or urgency, they give the Nuggets more than they can handle. After being outplayed through 3+ quarters last night you have to think they’ll come out stronger in Denver, but they’ll also be dealing with the Nuggets’ arena and home crowd. It won’t be a picnic, but I think they’ll be able to put the series away. If the Nuggets do win Game 6, the Lakers are very, very tough to beat in a Game 7 at Staples Center.

     Still, the Nuggets are dangerous. Even if you call it a coin flip in Game 6 and give the Lakers 80% odds in Game 7 (if it gets that far), that gives the Nuggets a fighting chance at about 10%.

7. Alex in Burbank

   Larry, I know you probably won’t agree and even if you did you would never admit it to the public but the Lakers “TANKED” last night for MWP. And I think that’s playing with fire. I hope it doesn’t bit them in the rear. Thoughts?

   • Larry Coon

     What a set-up for a question! If I agree with you then you’re good with the answer, but if I disagree then you’ve already written-off the answer as being due to my not wanting to admit it in public — heads you win, tails I lose.

     So at the risk of having you dismiss the answer, the Lakers didn’t tank. They’d rather win than extend the series. Extended series are sometimes lost. Extended series take away energy. Extended series further risk injuries. You telling me a guy like Kobe is going to turn it off because he wants to wait for Metta to get back? Not gonna happen.

     What we saw last night was one team playing like it knew its backs were against the wall, and the other team playing like it knew it’s backs WEREN’T against the wall. That’s all. The Lakers finally developed a sense of urgency in the fourth, but by then it was too late. They nearly pulled it off (two good looks on three pointers to tie it up), but didn’t get it done.

8. Anthony Martin

   Where can you find the waiver priority for NBA teams at anytime?

   • Larry Coon

     You can find them at NBA.com, ESPN.com, or pretty much any other site that covers basketball. Waiver priority is determined by team won-lost record.

9. Mike

   CBA irony for you: new one expanded rules about players who resumed playing after career-ending injury…
   Shouldn’t the changes be focused on limiting the number of injuries deemed career-ending?

   • Larry Coon

     No. Medical forecasts are an inexact science. If you’re diagnosed with…I don’t know, ALS….then the doctors won’t tell you “you have X years to live” (despite what you may have seen in the media). They’ll tell you that X% of patients with similar presentations survive for Y years. Even though as a whole you can predict pretty accurately how long patients will survive, you can’t use that to say specifically how long one specific person will survive. There are always outliers who defy the odds — and the nature of probability distributions is that you are sure some WILL be outliers.

     So back to the NBA — even though an injury is deemed “career-ending” it just means that in the doctor’s opinion, based on the history of patients with similar injuries and the demands of playing NBA basketball, an injury is LIKELY to be career-ending. But again, there can always be outliers, and they set up criteria for establishing whether a comeback was successful (and therefore the salary is re-applied to the team’s cap).

10. Steve

    Are the knicks going to be above or below the apron? Will they have the mid-level or the mini-mid-level, and what affect will this have on them retaining Jeremy Lin?

    • Larry Coon

      They’re going to start out below the apron (about $74 million) and will do everything they can to stay there. They will have to use the Mid-Level exception to keep Jeremy Lin, because they won’t have his Bird rights (they’ll just have the one-year form of Bird rights, called non-Bird). The size of the Mid-Level exception depends on whether the team is above or below the apron — if they’re below, they’ll have the $5 million Non-Taxpayer version; if they’re above they’ll have the $3 million Taxpayer version.

      Due to the Gilbert Arenas provision other teams won’t be able to offer Lin more than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, but this means that the Knicks will need to hold on to their own Non-Taxpayer mid level so they can match. If they go over the apron, their Mid-Level reverts to the Taxpayer version, and other teams will be able to make Lin an offer the Knicks won’t be able to match.

      And once they do spend their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (at least, above the amount of the Taxpayer Mid-Level), the apron becomes a hard cap for the season.