NBA Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 9/21/12

1. Tony

   Larry,
   So annoyed that everything seems to fall the lakers way. It would make my day if things went bad and Dwight left the money on the table and went elsewhere next year ( doubt it). Based off fans comments we might as well hand Jim Buss the trophy now and say the 72 win record will fall. With that being said, let’s say the fakers, i mean lakers, stay healthy and click: in your opinion can and will the thunder or heat beat them in a series?

   • Larry Coon

     I think the Thunder are the best matchup against the Lakers, and have the best chance to beat them in a series. I expect the Thunder to win more games in the regular season due to the Lakers age, lack of experience with each other, and Dwight’s injury. But come playoff time the Lakers will be a lot for either OKC or Miami to handle if things click for them.

2. Deven

   Even though the Lakers are well beyond the luxury tax, what’s the most the Lakers can offer Dwight next summer, should he re-sign with them?

   • Larry Coon

     They have his full Bird rights, and can give him a five-year contract starting at about $20.5 million, with 7.5 percent raises. If I remember right, it came out to about $117 million.

3. Deven

   If Mike Miller of the Miami Heat would have retired or was out for the season due to injury, how much money would the Heat would have gotten with the Disabled Player Exception?

   • Larry Coon

     The disabled Player exception lets the team pay half the injured player’s salary, or the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, whichever is greater.

4. Deven

   Would you compare the NHL lockout to the NBA lockout from last year, or is it completely different?

   • Larry Coon

     Dunno. I’m a one-sport guy in terms of analysis and labor knowledge. Until I read your question I was only vaguely aware that there is a labor dispute in the NHL.

5. Deven

   Manu Ginobili will be a Free Agent next offseason. Would he be willing to take a paycut with the Spurs to make room and sign other guys or take more money elsewhere?

   • Larry Coon

     Tim Duncan did it, which was a good sign. The Spurs are known for building around high-character, team-oriented guys. This would be one of the ancillary benefits of that plan.

6. Deven

   Why does everybody keep saying that Orlando got the bad end of the Dwight Deal?

   • Larry Coon

     I think that’s inevitable in any trade involving the best center, and one of the top-five players, in the league. Teams just aren’t going to get equal value for a superstar, and these trades are often done more for future considerations than current stars — i.e., we won’t be able to accurately assess this trade for a few years. Rob Hennigan opted for draft picks and future building blocks than current players, which is why he avoided players such as Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez.

     So we’ll know in a few years which team got the better end of the deal. People look more favorably on Memphis’ trade of Pau Gasol today than they did when it was first consummated. Likewise, the Lakers dealt Shaq for just Caron Butler, Lamar Odom, and a nearly crippled Brian Grant (plus some future considerations), but it set them up for future deals that led to their back-to-back titles a couple years ago.

     But the Sixers still got rooked on the Charles Barkley deal.

7. Deven

   If Dwight is going to be out for a certain period of time, can the Lakers sign another guy with a disabled player’s exception?

   • Larry Coon

     No, the Disabled Player exception isn’t for short-term injuries. To qualify, the player must be substantially likely to be out through June 30.

     If Dwight isn’t available, the Lakers will do what they did when Andrew Bynum wasn’t available (which was a lot) — move Pau Gasol to center temporarily, and move someone from the bench to start at PF.

8. Peter John Jimenez

   Any chance the bulls land Al Horford in a three team trade between Chicago, Atlanta and Kings?

   Let’s say, Hawks get Tyreke Evans and Taj Gibson, Kings get Luol Deng and Bulls land Al Horford. Is it possible?

   • Larry Coon

     My opinion is that Al Horford will remain a central part of Danny Ferry’s plans, so this deal wouldn’t appeal to them.

9. Clark

   Could a rookie sign a 5 year “max” contract at 25% of the salary cap? For instance could the Jazz extend Derrick Favors next offseason for 5 year max even if he isn’t the MVP?

   • Larry Coon

     Yes, the maximum salary in a rookie contract extension under normal circumstances is based on 25% of the cap (it’s not actually 25% of the cap, for historical reasons, but it’s close). A player can qualify for more — the 7-9 year maximum, which is based on 30% of the cap — by meeting certain criteria. A player qualifies for this higher maximum if he has been named MVP, twice been voted as an All-Star starter, or twice made an All-NBA team.

10. Donovan

    Hello Larry, as I feel the Lakers can still use an additional player to add to their building blocks of their summer of success. How much money do they have left to spend of their mini mid-level exception and/or veteran’s minimum?

    • Larry Coon

      They have $1.49 million left of their Mid-Level (having spent $1.6 million on Jodie Meeks). They can also sign as many minimum-salary guys as they want.

      That said, I think Mitch Kupchak is now done, except for possibly adding one or two more camp invites who will be longshots to make the team.

11. Matthew 'EL CAMPEON' Crawford

    hello, Larry, thanks for the Cap-related insight.

    My question:

    An arguement of sorts came up on another comment thread on one of the other chats. Someone stated the Lakers ‘buy’ their titles and that ‘Stern would deliver the trophy’ to them.

    Im of the mindset that thats asinine. You cannot outright buy a title in the NBA. Sure, you can spend money, but that doesnt mean you will hoist a trophy. It was also brought up that the new CBA ‘insures’ that only the richest owners spend money, and I dont agree. What are your thoughts on all this? I appreciate it.

    • Larry Coon

      Ah, the conspiracy mindset. Do the Lakers have advantages? Sure — they’re in a major media market, have huge local broadcast revenues, and are in a desirable location for free agents. But many teams have outspent the Lakers — look at the Knicks & Blazers from about a decade ago. How is the assertion that the Lakers “bought” titles consistent with the observation that other teams have outspent them?

      As for Stern “delivering the trophy to them,” that’s just more of the same. There’s a phenomenon called confirmation bias — our brains tend to be very good at remembering the hits, but conveniently forgetting the misses. If your conclusion is that the Lakers’ are the league’s golden child, then you will latch onto — and remember — things that align with that conclusion, but conveniently forget those that do not. There’s also the phenomenon of retro-diction going on. Humans are also very good at reinterpreting facts to support their conclusion. None of this says anything about the league — but is IS an excellent case study in human psychology.

12. SatBchMagicer

    Hi Larry, seemingly, NBA teams ‘retain the signing rights to foreign players’ they drafted any time in past ‘in perpetuity’ as long as that player only plays professionally ‘not in the NBA’; is that in fact the case? I can cite several examples of said teams ‘trading those rights’ many years after the draft. I ask because would it then also seem to follow that ‘those potential contract salaries would stay with team- in perpetuity- until said player dies?

    • Larry Coon

      Yes — the clock stops on draft rights while the player is playing professionally outside the NBA. Once the player’s non-NBA obligation ends, he’s supposed to notify the team that he’s available to sign a contract — but of course, some players never intend to play in the NBA at that point. As a result, there are some teams with some pretty ancient draft rights:

      Atlanta — Alain Digbeu (drafted 1997)
      Houston — Venson Hamilton (1999)
      Indiana — Andrew Betts (1998)
      Miami — Roberto Duenas (1997)
      Miami — George Banks (1995)
      Milwaukee — Eurelijus Zukauskas (1995)
      Milwaukee — Andrei Fetisov (1994)
      Orlando — Rashard Griffith (1995)
      Portland — Doron Sheffer (1996)
      Portland — Marcelo Nicola (1993)
      Sacramento — Dejan Bodiroga (1995)

      Those are just the players from drafts prior to 2000. I doubt any of these players will be seen in an NBA arena near you anytime in the future.

      And yes, teams can trade the draft rights to any of these players, just as they can trade their rights to any other draft pick.

13. fen

    What incentive does a player have to sign with another team when he’s a restricted free agent (Eric Gordon comes to mind)? If the player (like Josh Smith) genuinely wants to leave, shouldn’t he just play out the last year of his contract and become UFA?

    • Larry Coon

      It’s not really the last year of his contract. It’s a standing offer for a new contract, for one year at a scale amount. This is often considerably shorter and considerably less money than the player can command on the open market. For the player, it’s a trade-off between locking-in more years and vastly more money, or having the right to choose his next team a year down the road. He will earn considerably less in that one year, and a lot of bad things can happen before he becomes a free agent.

14. Sean

    Larry,

    How do you feel about the Franchise Tag being implemented in the next CBA? I’d be in complete favour of it as I read you have been.

    Thoughts? Thank you, Larry

    P.S. Go Lakers!!

    • Larry Coon

      I’m in favor of the idea. I understand the argument from the players’ perspective that they fought long and hard for the right to change teams, and don’t want to give up that right — even if it’s for just a handful of players. But on the other hand there are players who are so foundational to a team — to its very identity — that it would be devastating to have them leave. Think the Cavs with LeBron James. Those needs have to be balanced.

      The related issue is that the league wanted to narrow the gap between big-market and small-market teams. They addressed this issue last year with the new revenue sharing program. But while they ADDRESSED it, they didn’t fix it completely. Free agency has to be viewed as a big-market-friendly program, so if they keep these franchise players from becoming free agents, it’ll bring the league closer to its stated goal.

      As long as the players are fairly compensated (and if it’s a franchise player, this means a full max contract) and the team is held responsible for its end of the bargain (in the form of an early termination option if the team doesn’t meet certain performance standards), I think the league as a whole benefits from a franchise player program.

15. Martin

    hello larry big fan. i wanted to now how much possibilities have the hawks to offer james harden a max deal in case that the thunder dont sign him thx

    • Larry Coon

      The Hawks have just $21 million committed rigth now for 2013-14. This should give them a theoretical $38 to $39 million in cap room next summer (not counting guys they’ll surely want to keep). It looks like they’re positioning themselves to have the ability to offer someone a max contract.

16. isda

    Whats your opinion on lin? Is he skilled enough to be a star pg a good role player pg kinda like andre miller?) Would he better than jrue holiday?

    • Larry Coon

      He showed he can play in this league when given the chance, and he also showed flashes of skills that would put him in elite company. But because of the stratospheric nature of some of those flashes, I think it’s more likely we’ll see some amount of regression to the mean.

      On the other hand, he has a great work ethic and knows the things he needed to work on *ahem* turnovers *ahem*, so we’ll soon find out how well he applied himself this summer.

17. Charlie

    Any chance the Charlotte Bobcats don’t finish last in the East next year? And if you could pick one team the Bobcats may end up having more wins next year than, who would it be and why?

    • Larry Coon

      No, I think the Bobcats will end up dead last again this year. Rebuilding from the ground up is a multi-year process, and Rich Cho knows he has to be patient.

      For a team to finish worse? Maybe Orlando — they’re doing the full reset too, but I think the players they have left on their roster are good for a few additional wins.