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NBA Six Pack: Gambling at the Deadline
Posted By Tommy Beer On March 1, 2011 @ 4:30 pm In All,NBA | No Comments
HOOPSWORLD’s Senior NBA Analyst Tommy Beer takes you through his weekly musings on the National Basketball Association in his latest installment of The NBA Six Pack…
There were all sorts of interesting deals made in the days and hours leading up to last Thursday’s NBA trade deadline. When 70% of teams in the league are involved in at least one deadline deal, we know one thing is certain: There is going to be a lot of first and second-guessing going on.
General Mangers in both conferences took risks both large and small. For instance, the Suns traded away Goran Dragic and a first-round pick in the hopes that not only would Aaron Brooks fit into their offense, but also they could re-sign Brooks when he becomes a restricted free agent in the offseason. The Rockets, on the other hand, are hoping they can revive Hasheem Thabeet’s career and wishing they’ll be able to remove the ‘bust label’ currently attached to his name. Cleveland wagered Baron Davis and Byron Scott will somehow co-exist.
However, those risks are relatively small potatoes compared to the blockbuster deals detailed below. To kick off this Six Pack, we’ll breakdown the moves made by arguably the three biggest gamblers:
1. The New York Knicks
Many media members and a healthy percentage of Knicks fans felt the Knickerbockers mortgaged too much of the future in order to obtain Carmelo Anthony from the Nuggets. The anti-trade argument stemmed from the belief New York should have just waited until the summer and signed Melo as a free-agent, without giving up valuable assets.
However, as I discussed in depth last week, I am a firm believer Donnie Walsh and the Knicks brain trust clearly made the right call. In fact, for the Knicks, in this particular situation, not going all out for Melo prior to the deadline would have been possibly the biggest risk of all. No one has any idea what type of provisions the new CBA will include. Will there be a franchise tag, which would have prevented Carmelo from leaving Denver? Would Melo have been tempted to sign an extension with the Nuggets (or Nets) instead of facing the prospects of such an unknown and scary future?
Either way, the trade improved the Knicks both in the short and long-term. Not only did they acquire a superstar without giving up so much as an all-star, the Knicks actually walked away with the two best players in the trade. When you can swing a deal in which you net one of the leagues elite scorers and a former NBA Finals MVP with some gas left in his tank, you pull the trigger. As the Knicks showed Sunday night in Miami, New York now has the firepower to play with any team in the league on any given night. Although they can not yet legit contenders (as they proved Sunday night in Cleveland), the Knicks have an undeniably solid foundation in place. With Amar’e (28 years old) and Melo (just 26) as the cornerstones, the organization is primed to add one more piece by 2012, in order to take that next step. New York’s basketball future is brighter than it has been in a long, long time.
2. The Boston Celtics
Doc Rivers had been proud to claim the starting five of Rondo, Ray Allen, P Pierce, KG, and Perkins had never lost a playoff series when all five were healthy. Thus, Boston fans were clearly amped up for the Celtics to make another deep run into June after watching Perk shake off the rust and round back into shape over the past few weeks after returning from major knee surgery. However, with the shocking news Danny Ainge had sent Perk packing, Rivers won’t get another crack with that front five. Instead, Boston shipped out Nate Robinson and their starting center in exchange for Jeff Green and center Nenad Krstic.
This is a risky deal on several fronts for Ainge and the C’s. First, trading ‘big’ for ‘small’ is always a dicey proposition. Granted, the C’s got back Krstic but Perkins is a true big; in fact they don’t get much stronger or more physical up front. Which leads us to the the assertion the Celtics are essentially gambling they won’t have to defeat the Orlando Magic or even the L.A. Lakers en route to the 2011 NBA championship. Or, of they do match up with one of those two squads, they can advance without Perkins. No single defender can stop Dwight Howard, but Perkins was one of the very few centers in the NBA that could slow him down and limit his domination in the paint. In addition, we saw how valuable Perk was to Boston during last year’s NBA Finals in Los Angeles. With the C’s leading the series 3-2, Perkins tore his ACL halfway through the first quarter of Game Six. The Lakers would go on to beat the Celtics by 22 in Game 6, and out-rebound them 52-39. In Game 7, the Lakers would also grab 13 more rebounds than Boston, and would pull away down the stretch. Pau Gasol corralled a total of 31 boards in those final two contests.
Another factor to consider is how the move may or may not impact the Celtics’ legendary chemistry. Everyone in the organization, from players, to coaches, to management, have been outspoken regarding the important role chemistry and cohesiveness have played in the Celtics recent return to prominence, ever since the Big 3 arrived in Beantown. The early reports out of Boston immediately following the trade were not encouraging. Apparently Perk was weeping while Rajon Rondo (his best friend on the team) was fuming. The Celtics are a collection of consummate professionals, so too much shouldn’t be made of it, but it deserves mentioning at least.
All that said, the C’s were keenly aware Perkins was going to hit the free agent market following this season, so if they weren’t going to re-sign him, it made sense to get some value in return. And Green is an undoubtedly talented player with significant upside. Still, Green will be a restricted free agent this summer as well. Moreover, the Celtics window of opportunity may not be ajar much longer. Potentially diminishing the team’s chances of success in the short-term is inherently perilous. We shall see what the final returns tell us…
3. New Jersey Nets
Of all the teams rolling the dice at the deadline, it could reasonably be argued that no organization took a bigger gamble than the Nets. New Jersey unloaded a bevy of assets in order to secure the services of Deron Williams. The Nets traded Devin Harris, a solid point guard still in his prime and just two years removed from all-star status; Derrick Favors, a promising big man who was selected #3 overall in last June’s draft; as well as multiple picks (including the Nets’ 2011 selection, which will be a lottery pick). In return, New Jersey landed one of the NBA’s premier point guards and one of the league all-around best players. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov and the Nets’ hierarchy, who had been spurned by LeBron and other free agents last summer and by Carmelo last week, viewed D-Will as marquee talent they could build their roster around as they transitioned to Brooklyn.
However, the Nets have no guarantee that Williams will be the face of the franchise when the team actually starts playing homes games in New York’s most populous borough. Deron has the option to opt out his contract following the 2011-2012 season. This opt-clause was a major reason why the Jazz considered trading their best player. Utah saw the three-ring circus that Denver was forced to deal with over the last six months due to the endless rumors and controversy surrounding Carmelo. In a preemptive strike, they traded away Williams in order to maximize the value they would receive in return.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Now the pressure of signing D-Will to a contract extension falls squarely on the shoulders of Prokhorov and the Nets, which makes this trade so intriguing. It is the ultimate boom-or-bust scenario. The Nets either end up hitting a grand slam or striking out. If they ink D-Will to a extension keeping him in a Nets uniform during the prime of his career, it’s an A+. If he ends up walking in the summer of 2012, or demanding a trade next February, it’s a doomsday scenario for Prokhorov and company.
Interestingly, a key piece of the Nets future may eventually be decided this summer in a board room in Manhattan or a court room elsewhere, as the ability of the Nets to retain Deron Williams may be greatly increased via the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. One of the reasons NJ may have been willing to take a chance on trading for Williams would be if they were of the belief the new CBA will include franchise tags or a similar such mechanism that will enhance a team’s ability to hold onto the superstars currently on their roster. Plenty of teams will certainly be watching this all play out, especially the Nets rival on the other side of the Hudson River….
4. Dunks of the Week:
* It is very rare Blake Griffin gets legit competition from one of his own teammates in the Dunk of the Week competition, but Randy Foye did just that Saturday night.
* Then again, Blake is always going to hold down the crown.
* And it wasn’t a dunk, but Nick Young gets a mention for this mutant 360 lay-up.
* Amar’e puts J.J. Hickson in a poster.
5. Tweets of the Week
@richarddeitsch I know Christian Bale will win tonight but my best supporting actor in 2010 remains Jim Gray in "The Decision."
@chernykh New translation: The one with Mozgov’s Vegas wedding: http://t.co/5fXfXyd #Nuggets #Knicks (Yes, The Moz got married in car, in Vegas, in sweatpants…)
@darrenrovell Amar’e's block on LeBron last night inspired the @NewYorkPost, truly: http://yfrog.com/gz6cmdxj
@edsbs: If you run a sub 5.0 40 and are 300 pounds, you are not a person. You are a bear with a driver’s license and SS #.
@sbnseattle: Terrence Ross gets ridiculous with a Vince Carter-like dunk during practice. http://sbn.to/hAz3Ce
@johnschuhmann LeBron over-the-head, no-look pass to Dampier: http://on.nba.com/ghhtag & his sick lefty alley-oop dunk: http://on.nba.com/g9xo16
6. Elias Sports Bureau Stats of the Week
* Carmelo Anthony scored 29 points in the Knicks’ 91-86 win at Miami after scoring 27 in each of his first two games for New York. Only five other players in NBA history scored at least 25 points in each of their first three or more games for one team: Wilt Chamberlain, for the Philadelphia Warriors (1959, first 10 games); Walt Bellamy, for the Chicago Packers (1961); Dan Issel for the Nuggets (1976); Dominique Wilkins for the Clippers (1994, first 4 games); and Glenn Robinson for the Hawks (2002). Related notes: Chamberlain and Bellamy did it in their rookie season. Issel did it in his first three NBA games for the Nuggets, but played for Denver previously in the ABA. Only Wilkins, like Anthony, did it following a midseason trade.
* Amar’e Stoudemire sealed the Knicks’ victory when he blocked LeBron James’s driving lay-up with 7 seconds to play. It was only the third time in James’s NBA career that he had a shot blocked in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter (or overtime) with his team trying to erase a deficit or three points or less. The others came in a span of 12 days in April 2008 on blocks by Joakim Noah and Samuel Dalembert.
* Kevin Love scored 37 points and grabbed 23 rebounds in the Timberwolves’ 126-123 win over the Warriors. It was Love’s fourth 30/20 game this season, the highest total in one season since Shaquille O’Neal posted five such games for the Lakers in 1999-2000.
* From Elias: Grant Hill turned back the clock, scoring 34 points in the Suns’ 110-108 overtime win at Indiana. That was the 27th time that Hill scored as many as 34 points in a game, but the most recent of those games prior to Sunday’s was exactly six years earlier, on February 27, 2005 for the Magic, playing alongside a rookie named Dwight Howard.
* J.J. Hickson scored 22 points and grabbed 16 rebounds (including nine off the offensive boards) in the Cavaliers’ 95-91 loss to the 76ers. It was Hickson’s third 20/15 game (that is, points and rebounds) this month. Over the last 17 seasons, only one other Cavs players posted three such games in the same calendar month: Carlos Boozer in January 2004.
* Derrick Rose had 21 points and nine assists on Monday to finish February with averages of 26.4 points per game and 8.2 assists per game. That’s the highest scoring average by a Bulls player in a month of 10 or more games since Michael Jordan averaged 28.9 points per game in March 1998. No other NBA player has had a month this season in which he averaged at least 26 points per game and eight assists per game.
* Steve Nash had 15 assists on Monday, giving him at least 10 assists in all 10 games he’s played since turning 37 on February 7. No other player has had a streak of more than five games at 37 or older; the next-longest was by John Stockton, who had a five-game spree in January 2000.
* Deron Williams had 18 assists on Monday giving him 47 through three games with New Jersey. That’s the most assists over a player’s first three games with a particular team in NBA history. The previous record, 44 assists, was set by Guy Rodgers, for the Bulls in October 1966.
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