NBA Six Pack: Uncertainty Clouds NBA’s Future
HOOPSWORLD’s Senior NBA Analyst Tommy Beer takes you through his weekly musings on the National Basketball Association in his latest installment of The NBA Six Pack…
1) Uncertainty Clouds Decision Making for the Entire NBA Universe:
Last year, heading into the epic "Summer of 2010," nearly all the plausible scenarios were laid in advance. Projected cap space could be closely calculated and salary situations could be accurately predicted. The precise cap figure hadn’t yet been determined, but most people generally agreed as to where it would land.
Everyone had a very clear understanding of the existing landscape. Granted, nobody knew what the individual players were going to do, but everyone (players, bloggers, coaches, GM’s, fans, media) we all knew what each team and player could do. Each team had "X" amount of cap space, which meant the extent each organizations options were fairly evident. The parameters of a ‘max’ contract have always been public knowledge.
However, this year we are on the precipice of a brave new world. Certainty is non-existent. Nobody feels confident predicting the future as doomsday lurks. When the current CBA expires following the 2010-2011 NBA season, certitude for the future expires as well. Even if there isn’t a lockout (a risky assumption at this stage of the game), the Collective Bargaining Agreement will be drastically altered, essentially upending the NBA’s salary structure as we know it.
This impeding uncertainty has wreaked havoc on the decision-making process of decision-makers throughout the league. Agents, GMs, players – they are all handicapped by this ambiguous future. It is a guessing game as to how the situation plays itself out.
For instance, consider the interminable Carmelo Antony situation. Carmelo knows he is taking a risk by not signing the extension the Nuggets have placed in front of him. However, he doesn’t know exactly how big of a risk he is taking. And no one can tell him, not his agents, not anyone – because no can claim knowledge of the unknowable future. In years gone by, the exact financial implications would have been easily decipherable with a calculator or even some long division.
And it is not just Carmelo that stands to roll the dice. Teams are forced to play the same guessing game. Knicks’ President Donnie Walsh, for instance, also has to factor in the impact of signing ‘Melo to a max extension, should he have the opportunity to trade for him. Donnie would have to contemplate the long-term ramifications of having two max-money players on his roster. If the new CBA imposes a ‘hard’ cap, the Knicks could theoretically have as much as 35-40% of their entire spendable salary tied up in two forwards, neither of whom are defensive stalwarts. Furthermore, Wilson Chandler becomes a restricted free agent this summer. Raymond Felton, Landry Fields, and Danilo Gallinari (restricted), all hit the open market in 2012.
So, as we approach the February trade deadline, we can assume that there will be a tremendous amount of apprehension on all ends, as teams are essentially forced to make moves without the benefit full foresight. Should make for a very interesting month…
2) ‘Melo More Than a Numbers Game…
I understand we have been inundated with incessant Carmelo overload, so I apologize for contributing to the din of white noise. But I have gotten plenty of e-mails and tweets and asking about whether a Melo marriage with the Knicks would work out. I haven’t commented too much, but I did feel the need to need to respond to those pundits who have claimed that a Knicks team with Carmelo wouldn’t win in New York. One of the sabermetrics minds extrapolated that a Stoudemire/Anthony-led Knicks team would average fewer than 30 wins a year in New York. There has also been lots of talk about how inefficient Melo is, and how that negatively impacts his team.
Let me just say this – I love crunching numbers and examining trends/tendencies as much as the next guy. However, the game of basketball can not always be reduced to plus/minus stats or eFG%. As hard as mathematicians try, they have yet to figure out an exact formula to determine the authentic value of a particular player. Cover the name on the back of Robert Horry’s basketball card and try to determine if that guy made a major impact on the NBA during his years in the league.
Moreover, even similar numbers produced by different players can yield fantastically different results. Knicks fans know this all too well. Check out David Lee’s stats over his last few years in New York. Lee was an All-Star during his final season with the Knicks in 2009-2010, when he averaged 20.3 ppg, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists – while shooting 54.5% from the floor and 81.2% from the stripe.
{AUTHOR_BOX}This season, Amar’e Stoudemire is scoring far more points and blocking more shots, but he is also rebounding less, dishing out fewer assists, and shooting a lower percentage from both the field and the free-throw. However, Amar’e is legit MVP candidate because he has spearheaded an incredible resurgence in New York. One significant factor in the Knicks turnaround has been the indomitable confidence and undeniable swagger STAT has brought to his new organization. Stoudemire’s leadership in the locker room, his insistence on each player being held accountable, has been invaluable. That is the type of stuff that doesn’t show up on a stat sheet. And that is the type of stuff that helps turn losing situations into winning organizations.
I remember somebody once analyzed the numbers of times during any given game that Steve Nash high-fived one of his teammates. As far as I know, there is no column in the box-score for "encouragement given per game," nor do "pats on the back" get factored in PER rating – but I want someone to convince me that effective leadership doesn’t impact team success.
On the flip side of the coin, check out the numbers a former Knicks’ captain, Stephon Marbury, posted during his stint in NYC. Starbury was a statistical standout, but whenever he wasn’t on the floor, he’d mope on the bench with a towel covering his head. Or if a player fumbled a pass, everyone in the building knew a dirty look was on its way. The self-proclaimed "best point guard in the NBA" wasn’t exactly the best teammate.
3) ‘Reke Ready to Rebound
Had a chance to sit down with Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans on Friday night before the Kings squared off against the Knicks Friday night at MSG. Evans, who had missed the previous three contests due to a sprained left ankle, was happy to report he was felling much better and was ready to return to action. (He did play, but struggled to fight through the rust. However, the Kings were able to secure a rare road victory against a quality opponent.)
While this season certainly has not lived up to expectations in SacTown, Evans is optimistic about the organization’s future. He is of the belief that that future starts now, and he expects the Kings to finish out this season strongly in order to build towards tomorrow.
"We just have to go out and finish strong. It’s a long year and we are a young team and we’re good. We just have to go out there and finish strong, no matter what the record is. Next year we have to come in and be ready to make a big impact and be one of the top teams in the West, and definitely be in right the playoff race," said Evans.
A major reason for the Kings hopeful optimism is the recent play of lottery pick DeMarcus Cousins, who is currently enjoying his best stretch as a pro. Over his last 11 games, DMC is averaging 17.7 points and 8.6 boards. Evans believes his big man is only beginning to scratch the surface. "There is definitely room for growth there. Remember, he is only 20 years old. Both me and him have a lot we still have to go through and we both need to get better.
"It’s only going to get better for us if we keep working hard on our games. Even next year, we have to keep working hard and then be able to take it out there on the court."
On this night in NYC, Evans, the reigning Rookie of the Year matched up against Knicks guard Landry Fields, who was named the Eastern Conference’s top rookie in both November and December. Asked if he had had a chance to watch much of Fields yet, Tyreke responded: "Not really, I haven’t had a chance to see Fields play much, but I know he can play. He can shoot it, and rebound. He is one of those guys that is a good guy to have on your team because he will play his role and do whatever it takes to get the job done."
And, since I had his ear, I had to ask Tyreke about his initial impressions of the guy that will soon join the ROY fraternity as a fellow Rookie of the Year Award winner, L.A. Clippers young stud, Blake Griffin. Evans simply smiled and said: "One Word – Beast! He’s incredible. He’s got the strength, he is athletic, he can rebound the ball; just a great guy to have on your team. Also, he’s got that incredible will to win. He is one of those guys that goes out there and plays hard every night."
4. Tweets of the Week:
@SteveNash – My favorite moment this week… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJshw2Axsqc Bart Scott you have a new fan!!
@johnschuhmann – "If it’s flu season, don’t defend me too tightly. That’s how germs are spread." #chrisboshquotes
@NBAHistory – Vince Carter = 37th player to reach 20,000 pts; of the 36 previous 20k members, only 10 are not in the BBHOF (8 are either active or not eligible yet)
5. Dunks of the Week:
* Derrick Rose (future NBA MVP) bangs on the Pistons – D Rose looked like the last Bull to win an MVP award on this play.
* I assume it will be the only time we include Robin Lopez (or any dude named Robin, for that matter) in this section this season, but this was a mutant dunk.
* It wasn’t a dunk, but this reverse layup by J.R. Smith’s was ridiculous
6. Elias Sports Bureau Stats of the Week:
* Zach Randolph finished with 23 points and 20 rebounds in the Grizzlies’ 89-70 victory over the Mavericks. It was Randolph’s sixth 20/20 game (points/rebounds) in a season and a half with the Grizzlies – one more 20/20 game than the total produced by all other players in the 16-year history of the franchise, which began in Vancouver in 1995.
* The Nuggets took an 80-49 halftime lead over the Cavaliers before easing to a 127-99 win on Saturday night. It was the highest first-half points total in the NBA in the last season and a half, but still a far piece from the NBA record. On Nov. 10, 1990, Paul Westhead’s run-and-gun Nuggets scored 67 first-half points – and went to the locker room trailing by 40 points! That’s right, the Suns led at halftime that night, 107-67, en route to a 173-143 victory.
* Blake Griffin made 19 of 24 field goals on Monday, 79.2 percent. That was the highest field-goal percentage by a rookie who took at least 20 shots in an NBA game since Dec. 6, 1984, when Hakeem Olajuwon made 18 of 22 (81.8 percent) for the Rockets. Griffin’s 47 points were the second-most by any player in a game on Martin Luther King Day. The only player with more was Gilbert Arenas, who had 51 for the Wizards against the Jazz in 2007.
* Even with Dirk Nowitzki scoring 32 points in his second game since returning from injury, the Mavericks didn’t have enough to win, falling to the Pistons, 103-89. It was Dallas’s sixth straight loss, its longest tailspin since starting a six-game losing streak on Leap Year Day of the year 2000. Only one other NBA team has gone that long since its last six-game losing streak; the Spurs haven’t had one since the last six games of the 1996-97 season, which were also the last six games that the Spurs played before drafting Tim Duncan. The Mavericks’ latest loss came with a historical footnote. Jason Kidd was credited with 13 assists but went scoreless, shooting 0-for-7 from the floor (all from three-point range). No other player in NBA history had as many as 13 assists in a scoreless game in which he had at least seven field-goal attempts.
* The Celtics made 42 of 70 field goals in their win over the Magic on Monday (60 percent). That was the highest shooting percentage against the Magic since the Clippers shot 60.3 percent on Dec. 3, 2006. Besides those two games only one other team made 60 percent of its shots against Orlando since Dwight Howard joined the team in 2004; that was the Raptors on Jan. 4, 2006 (63.0 percent).
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