On Thursday night the speculation will end and we will know who the Toronto Raptors have selected with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft.

The potential draft candidates have been identified and the Raptors’ short list includes Kentucky freshman point guard Brandon Knight, center Jonas Valanciunas from Lietuvos Rytas, Connecticut junior point guard Kemba Walker, center Enes Kanter from Turkey, forward Jan Vesely of KK Partizan Belgrade, and San Diego State sophomore small forward Kawhi Leonard.  Since a big splash at the 2011 Nike Hoop Summit, big man Bismack Biyombo has worked himself right out of a green room invite and most likely out of contention for the fifth pick.

Raptors’ President and General Manager Bryan Colangelo was not upset when his team moved back two positions to fifth in this year’s draft lottery and there is a strong case for his assertion that picks ranked three through ten could go in any order.  Perhaps that is why he has been actively trying to acquire a second top-ten pick in this draft.

It is likely that two of Knight, Valanciunas, or Kanter will be off the board when the Raptors pick, however this is not likely to cause Colangelo many concerns.

With the expected hire of Dallas assistant coach Dwane Casey as the Raptors’ new head coach, it should be clear the Raptors’ goals for this offseason are to get better defensively and that defensive bias will be reflected in who they draft.  The Raptors have needs at point guard, small forward, and center, but this team needs leadership as much as anything.

Kentucky Freshman Point Guard Brandon Knight

Knight had a good year at Kentucky as he led his team to the NCAA Final Four and is considered the second-best point guard prospect in most mock drafts.  Knight looked good in the individual workouts where he demonstrated his endurance, speed, and improved outside shooting, however he refused to work out against his direct competitor (Walker) head-to-head and that has some questioning his competitiveness.

From a Raptors’ standpoint, Knight looks a lot like Jerryd Bayless did coming out of college.  Equal in size, speed, and athleticism, Bayless had the better shooting percentages and scoring numbers.  Both players drew criticism for turnovers and having the skills to defend but not always showing it in games.

Bayless is only 22 years old and showed the Raptors he could put up 18.1 points and 6.7 assists without turning the ball over as a starter last season in limited games.  Knight looks like a duplication of what Bayless brings to Toronto but without the NBA experience.  There is also a question mark about this shy 19-year-old’s leadership ability.  Knight’s fit in Toronto is questionable.

The Utah Jazz need a point guard and could take the temptation to draft Knight out of Toronto’s hands.

Center Jonas Valanciunas from Lietuvos Rytas

This 19-year-old center is the classic raw prospect who is drafted early based on limited actual experience and unlimited potential.  Jonas Valanciunas is a project.

An athletic 6′ 11″ and 240 lbs with a reported 7′ 6″ wingspan, Valanciunas is already considered a good pick-and-roll player; however, his underdeveloped frame and inexperience made it hard for him to stay on the floor during his first and only season at the elite level in Europe.  In 14 Euroleague games, Valanciunas averaged 14.9 minutes and 3.1 fouls, and in Europe big men are given latitude in the post not granted under NBA officiating.

The Raptors are trying to improve quickly and Colangelo has almost zero margin for error if he wishes to survive the two-year extension he recently signed; taking on a project center is not a good fit in Toronto.  Plus, it doesn’t help Valanciunas’ case when buyout concerns from his European club haven’t been answered.

Valanciunas is the best true center prospect in this year’s draft and may not get past Cleveland at four.  Toronto needs a center but will probably be relieved if Valanciunas isn’t available.

Forward Jan Vesely of KK Partizan Belgrade

Colangelo recently went over to Europe to get another look at Jan Vesely, and when Vesely unexpectedly came to North America to work out for teams Colangelo saw him again.

Vesely is an enticing athletic player who plays above the rim, can run the floor, and is very effective in the open court.  At 6′ 11″ and 240 lbs, there is still some argument as to which forward position Vesely is best suited for in the NBA, but most experts peg him as a small forward.

The knock on Vesely’s game after two seasons at the elite level in Europe has been his defense, especially when other teams game plan for him, and his pathetic rebounding numbers for a player with obvious height, reach, and athletic ability.  He averaged just 3.4 rebounds per game in Euroleague play this season.

While Vesely is an obvious lottery pick and could become an offensive star, the Raptors already have Andrea Bargnani as a seven-footer who can score but has below average rebounding numbers. Drafting a second European player who doesn’t rebound well at their position doesn’t seem to fit.

Center Enes Kanter from Turkey

The last time most people in North America can remember seeing Enes Kanter play was at the 2010 Nike Hoop Summit or at the U18 European Championship the year before and almost the entire buzz for this imposing big man has come from those two games.  The lack of games was not entirely Kanter’s choice as the NCAA ruled him ineligible to play for Kentucky last season after he arrived.

Kanter looks the part of a true NBA center.  A 6′ 11″, 259 lb big man with long arms and good athleticism, Kanter arrived at the NBA Draft Combine in great physical shape, but seeing individual workouts and physical attributes are a long way from watching him play five-on-five last season.

The Raptors commented his face-up game and post presence in workouts left them unsure if Kanter will be best suited as a power forward or center in the NBA, but there was no doubt that they could see the 19-year-old’s potential.

Unfortunately, there is no way to know with any certainty if one is drafting the next Kevin Love or the next Darko Milicic.  Despite the fact the Raptors need a center, they also need a sure thing and Kanter is a mystery.

Kanter could go as early as three to the Jazz or at four to Cleveland.  There are not many other center prospects with a high upside to choose from and Kanter looks good in work outs.

San Diego State Sophomore Small Forward Kawhi Leonard

This (still) 19-year-old sophomore has impressed at workouts as the knock on this highly rated defensive prospect was his lack of a jump shot in college.  However, in a little less than a month at Impact Basketball with Joe Abunassar and Chauncey Billups, it looks like Leonard has found the range.

{AUTHOR_BOX}Leonard projects as a small forward in the NBA and the expectation is he can bring his 10.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals from college with him to the pros.  Exceptionally long arms and freakishly big hands give this 6′ 7″ wing player the tools to go with his high motor and lateral quickness.  Leonard is expected to be ready to contribute immediately at the defensive end of the floor for the team that drafts him.   If his newfound jump shot with NBA three-point range stays with him, Leonard could be the steal of the draft.

As Colangelo wants to improve his team’s rebounding and defense, Leonard is a solid choice.  At small forward, the Raptors already have James Johnson and Linas Kleiza should return from injury by January, therefore additional moves will be expected if Toronto selects Leonard.

Connecticut Junior Point Guard Kemba Walker

All the 21-year-old Kemba Walker did last season was lead a team not expected to receive an invitation to the NCAA tournament on a winning streak to eventually win both his conference and the NCAA championships.

The backup point on his high school team, Walker arrived in college as a pass-first guard who didn’t score, and this perception didn’t change much during his first two seasons at UConn.  What Walker did bring was defense, rebounding, and playmaking.

Last season on a Connecticut team that didn’t have a lot of scoring options, Walker stepped up his offensive game to become one of the leading scorers in the NCAA at 23.5 points per game.  He also grabbed a career-high 5.4 rebounds per game and maintained a two-steal average.  Walker was the undisputed leader and go-to-guy all season on the Huskies.

Having just turned the relatively “old” age of 21, Walker tends to be overlooked in favor of the 19-year-olds who have entered the draft, but the 6′ 1″ Walker has shown that he can do it all in college, from proven leadership, to high basketball I.Q., to undisputed athleticism. Walker could be the best point guard in this draft.

From a Toronto standpoint, Walker may be the only college player available who has shown the combination of leadership ability, defense, and scoring prowess Colangelo is seeking.

Last season, veteran Jose Calderon started most of Toronto’s games at the point and it looked like Jerryd Bayless was being given a shot at becoming his replacement.  If Walker is drafted, another move will be in the works.

Toronto’s Draft Board

On Thursday night, the Raptors draft board should look like this.

1. Kemba Walker
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Enes Kanter
4. Brandon Knight
5. Jonas Valanciunas
6. Jan Vesely

Colangelo can’t afford to wait long for a young player to develop or a risk raw prospect who could become a bust – the safe pick is someone who has already shown they can do the job.  Walker is the most NBA-ready point guard with the leadership skills that the Raptors need.  Fortunately for Toronto, almost everyone expects Walker to be available with the fifth pick.

If Colangelo can obtain the second top-ten draft pick that he has been after, adding Leonard would help move Toronto that much closer to their goal of having a respectable defense next season.

Send me your comments or questions about the NBA draft, the Toronto Raptors, or anything else in the NBA to my weekly NBA chat and check back on Thursday at noon ET for a response.