HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

The Cleveland Cavaliers surprise with the upset Tuesday night, climbing all the way up from the eighth spot in the NBA Draft to number one.

The Cavaliers have the Los Angeles Clippers to thank for the pick, which they acquired from LA with Baron Davis for Mo Williams.  Cleveland, in LA’s spot, had just a 2.8% chance of the top pick and somehow it came through.

That’s a 97.2% against and still . . .

Cleveland also has the fourth pick so in what isn’t an especially deep draft, the Cavaliers are in as good a position as anyone.

They’ll probably take Kyrie Irving with the pick although some pundits swear by Kemba Walker.

Of course the knee-jerk response to the Clippers pick winning the lottery was that it cost LA the #1 pick to dump Baron.

That’s certainly one way of looking at it.

Realistically though, if the Clippers hadn’t traded Davis what would their record have been?  What would the Cavaliers record have been?

Would either squad have made an alternate trade?  What games were impacted after the deal?

The Clippers finished nine games ahead of the Washington Wizards and eight behind the New Jersey Nets.  They played 22 games with Williams and finished 11-11.

Los Angeles beat lottery teams like the Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards (twice), Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets and Cavaliers.  They also lost to the New Jersey Nets, Rockets, Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings.

After the trade, the Cavs lost games to the Milwaukee Bucks, Nets, Bobcats, Wizards, Bucks and, Clippers while beating the Detroit Pistons (twice), Kings, Bobcats, Raptors and Wizards.

With just a minor tweak in the lottery combinations, do the Clippers defy the odds and end up number one?

More importantly when Vice President of Basketball Operations Neil Olshey was calculating probabilities at the trade deadline and saw a chance to dump a player who was serving as nothing but an anchor both on the court and on the team’s payroll, that 2.8% chance (or thereabouts) was a worthwhile gamble.

The Clippers aren’t fond of this draft.  They want veterans now who can help this team advance to the playoffs.

The immediate criticism is protections.  Why didn’t Olshey make sure the pick to the Cavaliers was protected?

Answer – he couldn’t, not legally.  Not unless he could somehow get the Oklahoma City Thunder to amend their previous trade which brought in All-Rookie Second-Team guard Eric Bledsoe in near last year’s draft.

That pick (since traded to the Boston Celtics) has specific protections that made it impossible for Olshey to trade the 2011 pick with any sort of limitations.

The language of the trade (as relevant in February) set up a scenario where if the Clippers 2011 pick was protected and deferred to Cleveland until 2012, LA would then be responsible for a 2013 pick to Boston (via the Thunder).  Since technically the Minnesota pick could arrive in 2011 (it didn’t but at the time it wasn’t official), a protection of 2011 set up a potential scenario where the Clippers wouldn’t have a pick in consecutive years (2012 and 2013). {AUTHOR_BOX}

As complicated and as far-fetched as all of that would have been – that’s immaterial when it comes down to making deals where you have to go by the strict letter of the agreements.  The Clippers couldn’t legally do it and Olshey, who didn’t love the draft, didn’t love LA’s draft position, wanted Baron gone and valued Williams . . . took a calculated risk.

Any insurance somehow from the Cavaliers would have killed the trade and getting out of Davis was a major priority for the club.

That’s all teams can do is make the best decisions they can in the moment given the information and instincts they have.  Will this one pay off?

It still might.  The Clippers have $5.3 million in cap space heading into the draft, in part because of the Cleveland trade.  They have a point guard in Mo that they believe is a good fit with both Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon.

If they can parlay the Minnesota 2012 pick or the salary of Chris Kaman into a high-level small forward (like Andre Iguodala), the Clippers may very well be a playoff team this coming season (beyond the prospective lockout).

With Larry Bird deciding to stay in Indiana, it seems a Danny Granger trade would be unlikely for the Pacers.

Rudy Gay may or may not become available but not before July.  The Memphis Grizzlies need to resolve the Marc Gasol contract first to determine their budget and the Clippers would like, if possible, to make a deal before July.

One argument against the Baron trade would be the possibility of an amnesty clause in the eventual Collective Bargaining Agreement that might have allowed the Clippers to dump Davis from their cap (although he’d still get paid).

Still, that’s a lot of if’s, especially back in February when the league and player’s union had barely gotten past each other’s initial proposals.  The amnesty may still only apply to tax and LA isn’t a taxpayer – assuming the system is similar in year one (once agreed upon).

Additionally, Williams recently was an All-Star and for the Clippers, it was crucial for the team to fill the point guard position while simultaneously getting rid of Davis.

LA honestly feels like they have a playoff core developing.  They intend to re-sign DeAndre Jordan who is a coveted, restricted free agent and also Griffin’s closest friend on the team.

We’ll see if it comes to fruition for the Clippers but to them, the Cavaliers landing the top pick is a footnote.

It’s amazing that their position hit the lottery and they weren’t there to reap the rewards but it’s a sliding doors situation and the team has no regrets.

Dirk = Good

Dirk is good.  That is all.

Dunleavy really a candidate for the Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking for a head coach to follow Phil Jackson upon his retirement.  While Brian Shaw has long been assumed to be the heir-apparent, the Buss family (notably Jerry and his son Jimmy) have yet to reveal their true intentions.

It would seem Shaw is not the front-runner while candidates Rick Adelman and former Lakers and Clippers head coach Mike Dunleavy may be serious options.

Clippers fans were happy to see Dunleavy go after the team’s 2006 run to the second-round of the playoffs was followed by year after year of injuries, short-comings and lottery selections.

While Dunleavy isn’t perfect, he’s tough, experienced, well-liked by the Laker organization and capable of dealing with some of the pressures of the LA market.

Internally the Laker family has its internal splits, notably between the Jeanie business side and Jimmy basketball side, but Dunleavy is considered one of the few coaches who won’t be bothered by such things.

Adelman may be a better fit with his style of offense but the team may feel Dunleavy is a better fit in disposition.

Rick is a player’s coach who doesn’t call a lot of plays, which may be better suited for LA’s veteran squad coming off years in the triangle offense.

Dunleavy is more exacting with his play-calling and doesn’t bond with his players on the same level as Adelman.

Ultimately the answer isn’t clear until the Lakers truly begin the hiring process.  Other candidates may certainly come up as well . . .

Pre-Series Predictions

Time for revision, given the Lakers and Celtics were my picks for the NBA Finals but are out.  The timing may seem funky but the picks were made before both Game 1′s via Twitter (@EricPincus).

Mavericks in six.

As fantastic the Oklahoma City Thunder are and eventually will be, the Mavericks appear to be on a mission.  Veterans Jason Kidd and Nowitzki know that this may be their last chance to get to the NBA Finals and leave with a ring (Kidd has lost twice – Dirk once).

The Mavs offensive execution will be too much for the Thunder who defend well but go on extended scoring droughts.

Bulls in seven.

Chicago plays defense.  Even though the Miami HEAT have two superstars to the Bulls’ one, Chicago makes up for it with championship-level defense.

The HEAT have shown that they too can defend.  If they can find a way to wall off the paint from Derrick Rose and force someone else on the Bulls’ roster to play-make, Miami has a real chance.

The Mavericks inspire more confidence thus six games – while the HEAT could end up with the upset – so Bulls in a shakier seven.