Pincus: Pau Gasol For Kevin Love?
The topic of Pau Gasol and the Minnesota Timberwolves was discussed last week (Pincus: Multiple Rumors Out of LA) based on the word of ESPN’s Chad Ford that the Wolves had interest in the Los Angeles Laker All-Star forward/center.
Further research revealed that the Wolves do indeed have interest in Gasol, notably because of his relationship with guard Ricky Rubio.
Rubio is expected to announce on Friday that he’ll be joining the Wolves next season.
Beyond the obvious impediment of a lockout that may delay or derail things, Rubio would play his first NBA game at the age of 21.
He’s been playing professionally since 2005 and while this past year he struggled, the Wolves believe they’re bringing in a franchise point guard.
Minnesota won just 17 games last season and they know it will take time to groom Rubio. Gasol has played on the Spanish National team with Ricky and would certainly ease the transition.
The odds of a deal would be unlikely. The Los Angeles Lakers have emphasized “core” like it’s a mantra.
Then again last year the buzz out of LA was that they wouldn’t spend much on free agency and yet they made a sizable offer to Mike Miller (who inked with the Miami HEAT) and then gave Steve Blake a $4 million a year contract.
The best example of “the unexpected” was the deal that landed Gasol in Los Angeles to begin with, sending out Kwame Brown, the lesser known Marc Gasol (proving now to be a true NBA force) and other considerations.
The sizable hurdle for Minnesota would be getting the Lakers to green-light it.
Here are just a few possible scenarios:
Second Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft
The Wolves have two picks in the coming draft: #2 and #20.
Laker General Manager Mitch Kupchak recently told Dave McMenamin of ESPN Los Angeles, “We’d like to have a top-five pick in the draft, because there are good players out there.”
Not to suggest the Lakers have something currently lined up.
Kupchak mentioned to McMenamin this past week, “I guess you can say, maybe, you can get a [first-round] pick, but that’s not contemplated right now.”
The Laker GM has previously indicated the team is looking to add youth to the guard position with both Derek Fisher (36) and Kobe Bryant (32) getting on in years.
Some of the top guards in the draft include Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette. Derrick Williams, a forward, is considered the consensus #2 pick.
Would any one of those players be worth giving up Gasol, still one of the best big men in the league?
Before answering, there’s the matter of matching contracts.
With league-wide uncertainty with the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to expire at the end of the month, forget a staggered trade with the Wolves picking for LA and dealing once the lockout is resolved.
This would have to be something executed in full before July if it includes 2011 draft pick(s).
To that end, the Wolves are about $3.9 million under the cap. Gasol’s trade value is currently $17.8 million.
Pau also has a 15% trade-kicker on his three-year extension which would add about $2.2 million to the total. Call it $20 million even for the sake of argument.
To make a deal legal, Minnesota would have to send out about $16.1 million in contracts. Multi-team trades are especially rare but even if the Wolves dealt out players to other teams in the same transaction, that doesn’t change the salary Minny would need to shed.
Minnesota Salaries
The issue for the Wolves is finding a decent offer to make for Gasol (on the assumption that the pick itself is enough of a lure). {AUTHOR_BOX}
Minnesota wouldn’t be able to include their lone expiring contract (Sebastian Telfair) which means the Lakers will need to be adding on about $16 million in players for next season.
Eddy Curry was waived before the end of the season and given that his contract was also up, he’s a non-factor in any trade negotiation.
The Lakers, if giving up Gasol, would have Andrew Bynum and Odom and little else in the power positions.
The Wolves can offer Michael Beasley ($5.0 million), Anthony Randolph ($2.0 million), Darko Milicic ($4.3 million), Nikola Pekovic ($4.2 million) and/or Anthony Tolliver ($2.2 million) – with two or three needed to go LA’s way.
Milicic and Pekovic are both centers at reasonable salaries, even as reserves. Darko still hasn’t proven himself as a consistent starter but did block 2.2 shots per game.
Pekovic didn’t make a tremendous impression as a rookie.
Beasley is a big-time scorer although not much else. Randolph has tantalized with his potential but to date has yet to delivery on a regular basis.
Tolliver would be a fit for LA and had previously met with the club as a free agent before the Lakers went in a different direction and he got a better deal from the Wolves. Tolliver could fill the Josh Powell role off the bench but with a three-point shot.
Additionally in the back court, Martell Webster ($4.8 million) who is owed $5.3 million next season but has just $600k of his final $5.7 million guaranteed the following year, may be appealing to the Lakers.
Lamar Odom has a similar contract for the 2012/13 season with $8.2 million on the books but $2.4 million guaranteed.
At some later date, the Lakers would be able to package Webster and Odom in an offer that could yield a player making up to $17.5 million (under the current rules, which obviously may change).
A prospective trade partner could in turn cut Webster and Odom for a total of $3 million, providing an immediate net savings of $14.5 million.
In the meantime, Webster is a solid defender on the perimeter and shot 41.7% from three last season. At just 24-years old, he might serve as a Shannon Brown replacement should the Laker guard opt-out as expected.
The Wolves are also expected to shop Jonny Flynn ($3.2 million) who, after a solid rookie year tailed off after a hip injury in his second season.
Luke Ridnour ($4.0 million) could possibly become available as well. He was someone the Laker spoke to in free agency before choosing Steve Blake.
If, however, LA got the #2 pick and used it on a point guard – along with Fisher and Blake – the team may have no need for Flynn or Ridnour.
Of course, additional players can be added to deals should the Lakers want to move Blake as well (in this theoretical morass).
So plug all the pieces together, call it Darko, Randolph, Webster, Tolliver and either Flynn or other throw-ins for $16.5 million.
That would give the Lakers a roster of:
PG: Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Jonny Flynn, the #2 pick
SG: Kobe Bryant, Martell Webster
SF: Ron Artest, Matt Barnes, Luke Walton, Devin Ebanks (non-guaranteed)
PF: Lamar Odom, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Caracter (non-guaranteed)
C: Andrew Bynum, Darko Milicic
LA also has four second-round picks in the draft (41, 46, 56 and 58).
The Wolves would have:
PG: Ricky Rubio, Luke Ridnour
SG: Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington
SF: Michael Beasley, Lazar Haywood
PF: Kevin Love
C: Paul Gasol, Nikola Pekovic
Minnesota also has the #20 pick and free agency with a need at shooting guard.
This naturally assumes that the Lakers feel the #2 pick (and the corresponding contracts they’d have to bring in) would be enough for Gasol.
Beasley can be substituted for Randolph, Flynn, Tolliver, etc. Pekovic can be flipped for Milicic.
A number of different combinations can be fashioned but would any be enough to truly entice the Lakers to such a drastic move?
Kevin Love?
For the Lakers to give up their All-Star forward they may want an All-Star forward in return.
Love is a force on the boards and while he doesn’t necessarily have the same level of polished, post-game as Gasol, Kevin brings a three-point shot and may be a better fit alongside Bynum.
Kevin is just 22-years old and to-date, he hasn’t seemed particularly happy in Minnesota.
When it was announced that Rubio was joining the game, Love tweeted, “Ricky Rubio huh? I’ll believe it when I see it…”
Love battled with Coach Kurt Rambis this past year and while Rambis may not be long for Minnesota, can the Wolves create a long-term situation for Kevin, who is going into the last year of his contract?
The new CBA may make it easier for the Wolves to retain Love but he’s set to be a restricted agent following next season.
Gasol has three more (expensive) years left on his deal and may be a better fit with Rubio.
Would the Wolves make that leap? Maybe. Maybe not.
Again, the issue of contract matchup comes up.
Love is currently at $3.6 million.
Would a package of Love, Webster, Flynn, Pekovic, and perhaps Hayward make sense for both teams?
The results would be:
PG: Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Jonny Flynn
SG: Kobe Bryant, Martell Webster
SF: Ron Artest, Matt Barnes, Luke Walton, Lazar Haywood, Devin Ebanks (non-guaranteed)
PF: Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Derrick Caracter (non-guaranteed)
C: Andrew Bynum, Nikola Pekovic
Again, LA also has the four second-round picks.
The Wolves would have:
PG: Ricky Rubio, Luke Ridnour
SG: Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington
SF: Michael Beasley
PF: Pau Gasol, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Tolliver
C: Darko Milicic
Minnesota would still have the #2 and #20 picks to round out their roster.
Obviously pieces like Milicic, Beasley, Ridnour, Tolliver – and possibly Blake coming the other way – can be fashioned into any combination of deals.
Love and #2?
For those Laker aficionados who don’t think Gasol is worth giving up for any of those packages (possibly the Lakers agree), the ideal scenario for LA would be the pick and Love.
The Lakers would still have to take on two to three more players as well.
At some point Minnesota’s “interest” in Gasol will wane if the price is too high.
If Kupchak can sell David Kahn on it somehow, then props to him.
It just seems a bit pricy for Minnesota but then teams on occasion do the unexpected.
An alternative to #2 pick could be the #20 . . . but let’s leave that up to two general managers to hash out in our mostly imaginary discourse.
Should the Lakers Deal Gasol to the Wolves?
The knock on Gasol over the course of his career has been physical toughness. His overall skill is unquestionable.
Against the Celtics in 2008, he was bullied. In 2009, he raised his level of play but also faced a less intimidating team in the Orlando Magic.
Finally the Lakers defeated Boston in 2010 and Gasol’s efforts did not go unnoticed.
Throughout this year’s postseason, he fell apart.
He averaged just 13.1 points a game on 42% shooting from the field.
While the Lakers had more than just Gasol holding them back from a three-peat, his individual struggles took away a lot of LA’s inside play.
Was it an aberration?
Will a longer offseason help Pau return to form?
Gasol is just 30-years old. He still may have championship-level seasons ahead of him.
As he ages and loses foot-speed, will he be able to defend at the four? If Bynum is the long-term five, will Pau become less and less of a fit?
Even though Love is a couple of inches shorter than Pau, He’s eight-years younger and would fit the Lakers’ future plans more so than Gasol.
Gasol, when inspired can be a capable defender and steady shot-blocker. Love, despite the boards, has yet to prove he’s a two-way player.
Then again Pau’s defense throughout the playoffs was very questionable. The overall viability of Gasol alongside Bynum in general has yet to truly prove itself despite the two titles.
Most of the big games were won with Pau and Odom on the floor while Bynum either recovered for injury or steamed on the sideline waiting for his opportunity to help close.
Now that Coach Phil Jackson is gone, along with the triangle offense, the Lakers need to make major moves for the future.
How long will the Kobe Bryant era last?
Gasol may be the fit for what’s left of it while Love may not only work today, he would be a corner-stone piece beyond Bryant as well.
If depth like Webster, Flynn and the like comes along two, LA may have the depth to reestablish themselves as champions.
If 2010 was Gasol’s peak, selling early would be the only avenue back to the top.
Whether there’s a pick coming back or not, the Lakers need to seriously consider the Minnesota possibility if they can get Love in return.
If Kevin is off the table and it’s the #2 pick and players as described above, that’s a much, much tougher call.
Perhaps the addition of Beasley instead of Love along with the #2 tips the scale, although LA would need some help defensively at the four.
Would the upgrade at the point, even with a younger talent like Irving, Knight, Walker or Fredette, be worth giving up Gasol, even if solid but lesser players flesh out a deeper Laker roster?
As far as Minnesota, Love doesn’t seem to love being on the roster. The team isn’t at a point where they’d need Gasol to be bringing in championships. A strong regular season with a run to the playoffs would be an absolutely monster step.
Even 41 wins in Rubio’s rookie year would be a successful season.
Gasol may not be the long-term solution for the Wolves but Love doesn’t look like one either.
The team won 17 games. They owe their 2012 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers unprotected.
If Rubio is the future face of the franchise, then bring in his compatriot to guide him through what can be a very difficult league.
If you asked the Lakers and Wolves right now, both would probably say it’s a long-shot.
That doesn’t mean Gasol for Love won’t happen because it’s something that should happen.
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