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Playoff Preview: Hawks vs. Magic

Posted By Lang Greene On April 13, 2011 @ 12:45 pm In All,NBA | No Comments

Rematch. The Orlando Magic handed the Atlanta Hawks the worst beat down in NBA playoff history last season, rollicking to an average margin of victory of 25 points per game in a four-game sweep over their Southeast Division rival.

After undergoing a coaching change and re-signing their franchise player, the Hawks entered this season with hopes of getting past the second round after suffering back-to-back sweeps in the conference semifinals during the past two seasons. In comparison, Orlando came into the year with title aspirations – a championship or bust goal.

At times during the season both teams appeared to be either headed toward or hovering around their respective goals. But now with the playoffs looming, the Magic appear better prepared to compete at a high level while the Hawks have been coming apart at the seams.

Still, the Hawks managed to take the season series between the teams 3-1 to alleviate some of the ghosts from seasons past. Expect a much more competitive series than the 2010 version. Guaranteed.

Note: The Hawks typically go big when facing the Magic, sending Marvin Williams to the bench while starting Jason Collins. The team hasn’t made that lineup official for the series, so for the purposes of this preview we’ll compare each units typical starting lineups.

Point Guard: Kirk Hinrich vs. Jameer Nelson – In last year’s playoff matchup between the two teams Nelson torched Atlanta’s then-starting point guard Mike Bibby and whoever else dared to take the defensive assignment of shutting him down.

The Hawks’ acquisition of Hinrich from Washington at the trade deadline added a set of more youthful legs in the backcourt and shored up the squad’s defensive weakness on the perimeter, but did so at the expense of team chemistry.

Nelson will enter the postseason playing his best basketball of the season, while Hinrich on the other hand is mired in a nightmarish shooting slump and struggling to find his groove within head coach Larry Drew’s offense.

Advantage: Magic

Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson vs. Jason Richardson – On paper this is a matchup which seems to heavily favor the five-time All-Star Johnson. However, Atlanta’s star guard has been everything but a model of consistency in the playoffs as of late.

Richardson is no longer the prolific scorer of years past but has fit into Orlando’s offensive scheme seamlessly since arriving from Phoenix last December. So even though he’s averaging just 14 points per game since donning an Orlando uniform Richardson is a bona fide threat to erupt for a big scoring night at any time.

There is a lot riding on Johnson’s performance in the playoffs this year. Atlanta re-signed Johnson to the most lucrative free agent deal in the league last summer with the hopes he could lead franchise to the Eastern Conference Finals and beyond. In return the ten-year veteran has responded with his worst statistical campaign since joining the franchise in 2005.

To be fair, Johnson underwent elbow surgery on his shooting arm early in the season and returned to the lineup three weeks ahead of schedule – likely not fully healed. But he’s not getting any younger and this elevates the 2011 playoffs to a make or break situation in regards to his ability to lead a title contending franchise.

Johnson averaged a pedestrian 12.8 points on 30 percent shooting in last season’s second-round sweep at the hands of Orlando. That simply cannot happen again under any circumstances.

Advantage: Hawks

Small Forward: Marvin Williams vs. Hedo Turkoglu – This matchup will in all likelihood become the x-factor of the series. How each respective coach is able to utilize the talents of Williams and Turkoglu could swing the momentum if the series becomes a back and forth tussle.

It’s easy to overlook and discredit Williams. We all know he was the guy selected ahead of two future franchise players in Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the 2005 NBA draft. However he’s gracefully accepted a diminishing role as Al Horford and Josh Smith have continued to develop. The problem has been Williams’ penchant for disappearing for stretches of games at a time. Part of the reason is because the Hawks rarely call offensive sets specifically designed to get him involved. But it’s an undeniable fact that when Williams plays well the Hawks have strong overall team success.

Turkoglu appeared to be a finished player in 2010 as a member of the Toronto Raptors. Add in the struggles at the start of the 2011 campaign as a member of the Phoenix Suns and Turkoglu’s trajectory toward the scrapheap seemed even more imminent.

{AUTHOR_BOX}Fortunately for him the trade winds came calling and he found himself back in the comfy confines of head coach Stan Van Gundy’s offense where he excels. The Magic run a lot of their offense through the veteran and he is a fearless performer during late-game situations with the ability to create his shot off the dribble or from long range.

If the Hawks fail to get Williams involved offensively, which will effectively allow Turkoglu to rest on defense, the Magic’s won’t complain one bit.

Advantage: Magic

Power Forward: Josh Smith vs. Brandon Bass – If there is a matchup the Hawks must exploit more than anything in this series it’s at power forward.

Smith entered the season with Defensive Player of the Year dreams and All-Star caliber talent. After a strong start to the season Smith has unexpectedly settled back into his old habits of hoisting long distance jumpers. After shooting a total of seven three-pointers in 2010, Smith has launched 154 this season.

A perimeter-oriented Smith is exactly what the Magic desire and would make life for Bass much easier.

How can you not respect the story of Bass? The former LSU standout went from being an afterthought at the end of Van Gundy’s bench to the team’s starting power forward in less than a year.

Bass’ numbers won’t necessarily jump off the page at you, but one thing that does is his consistency. His point and rebound averages are roughly the same pre- and post-All-Star weekend and whether he plays on the road or in front of the fans at home.

Even if Smith loiters on the perimeter it’s hard to imagine Bass thoroughly dominating him to swing the matchup in the Magic’s favor.

Advantage: Hawks

Center: Al Horford vs. Dwight Howard – This is the lone All-Star versus All-Star matchup of the series and figures to be an intriguing one. Horford has become more of a mid-range perimeter shooter in Coach Drew’s motion offense while there is no mistaking Howard wants the rock on the interior.

To Horford’s credit he’s been able to compile a solid stat line in head-to-head matchups versus Orlando this season. However most of those numbers were accumulated against Bass, Ryan Anderson and to a lesser extent veteran Malik Allen. 

The Hawks typically keep Horford far away from Howard until the second half in an effort to get him going and reduce the likelihood of foul trouble. This is a change from last season when departed Hawks head coach Mike Woodson didn’t shield Horford away from Howard. The numbers clearly illustrated the strategy reduced the undersized Horford into the land of mediocre production.

When the teams faced each other for the last time during the regular season in March, a combination of foul trouble and the scrappy defensive play of Hawks center Jason Collins were able to limit Howard’s dominance.

With that being said Howard, on an off night, still managed to score 17 points and pull down 13 boards.

Also keep in mind Atlanta has limited Howard to a woeful 43 percent from the floor this season which is the best any team in the league has done against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Unfortunately for Hawks fans, at this point and with the way Howard has been playing, you have to favor him in a matchup versus any center in the league without hesitation.

Advantage: Magic

Bench – The secondary units for each team has cost them victories down the stretch.

For Atlanta, last season’s Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford’s lost shooting stroke over the last two months couldn’t have come at a worse time. Crawford has been hesitant to attack and when he has been aggressive it’s been rushed and erratic. Part of this is Drew’s insistence on playing the veteran out of position at point guard. That decision tells you where Drew’s confidence in second-year guard Jeff Teague is at the moment.

Teague entered the season with a legitimate shot to emerge as the team’s starting point guard but has been too inconsistent to maximize that opportunity.

The Hawks don’t rely on their bench for scoring outside of Crawford. Zaza Pachulia, Collins, Hilton Armstrong and Etan Thomas will look to use their twenty-four fouls to make Howard’s life extremely uncomfortable in the paint.

For Orlando, the strength of their bench depends on the health of guards J.J. Redick, Gilbert Arenas and Chris Duhon.

Redick has missed valuable time late in the season and Arenas’ troublesome knee and waning confidence has reduced the former all-Star to just a shell of his once high scoring self. Duhon hasn’t fit in with the Magic to the level most expected but is still a decent backup point guard in limited minutes.

Forward Ryan Anderson has been a spark and trade acquisition Earl Clark has been able to find a niche within Van Gundy’s defensive schemes. 

With Atlanta’s assortment of bigs to throw at Howard and a streaky but high scoring guard waiting to explode the Hawks get the slight edge on the bench.

Advantage: Hawks

Coaching: Larry Drew vs. Stan Van Gundy – Can the longtime assistant turned rookie head coach fare better than his predecessor in the postseason?

Earlier in the year it appeared as though Drew had the solutions for the Hawks’ problems. As the season went on and the waters got a little deeper it seems like some of the Hawks have tuned out the former assistant and he may be headed to the hot seat with a shaky playoff run.

Van Gundy has marched Orlando to another 50-win campaign despite integrating two new starters into the fold after completing two blockbuster deals in December.

Advantage: Magic

Final Prediction: Magic in 6

 


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