Updated: July 24, 2011, 10:05 pm ET

Playoff Preview: HEAT vs. 76ers

The 76ers aren’t a bad team. They just look that way whenever they face the HEAT.

Miami has already breezed past Philadelphia three times this season, but as the two franchises prepare for their first-round playoff series, four more victories doesn’t seem like much of a challenge. The HEAT have the better offense (they rank third in the NBA in offensive efficiency), the better defense (fifth in defensive efficiency) and are much better on the boards (third best rebounding rate in the NBA).

But the 76ers happen to have two things the HEAT don’t: a talented point guard in his athletic prime and a high-scoring bench.

There’s no doubt LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade can dominate the 76ers starters—a unit held to 46 points in the second regular season contest between these two teams. But those three have played a lot of minutes this year, and Miami coach Erik Spoelstra might try to buy some more time with backups James Jones, Joel Anthony, Mario Chalmers and Mike Miller. And while there’s nothing wrong with those players individually, they can’t quite stack up against the likes of Philadelphia reserves Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams.

Of course, Spoelstra isn’t going to sit his Big 3 long enough for the HEAT to lose four games. So if the 76ers are going to pull of the upset—and you better believe this would be an upset—they’re going to have to outplay Bosh, James and Wade at some point.

Point Guard: Mike Bibby vs. Jrue Holiday

Bibby’s game-winning 3-pointer against the Lakers in Game 3 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals is probably the biggest shot in Sacramento Kings history.

Holiday, a native of Mission Hills, CA probably remembers it well. He was 12.

So maybe we shouldn’t rush to note Bibby’s experience advantage over Holiday because the bulk of that know-how was accrued in a completely different era. Now Bibby is 32, he doesn’t play much defense and his offensive contributions are limited to open jump shots. For lack of a better term, Bibby is old.

Holiday, who was already regarded as an elite defender, has become more complete in his sophomore campaign. He cut his turnover rate (percentage of possessions that end in a turnover) from 15.7 as a rookie to 11.9 this season while raising his assist rate (percentage of possessions that end with an assist) to 28.8 and his free throw mark to 82%. He finished the season averaging 13.9 PPG, 6.5 APG and 4.1 RPG, but more importantly, he earned the trust of his teammates. It’s a safe bet that Holidayw will be Philadelphia’s best player for some time. 

Advantage: 76ers

Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade vs. Jodie Meeks

On paper, this matchup looks about as even as VHS vs. Betamax.

But just how much of an advantage does Miami have at shooting guard?

Remember that Wade is third in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating, fourth in scoring and makes 6.5 free throws per game (fifth in the NBA). In fact, Meeks will be so overmatched at the defensive end that Holiday may be asked to defend Wade while Meeks will hit off the tee and guard Bibby.

Meeks, meanwhile, is a great 3-point shooter and his presence allows the 76ers to spread the floor. So, even if Meeks is hard pressed to cover Wade, coach Doug Collins will be torn over whether to keep him in the game for fear of the HEAT defense collapsing the paint.

On a better team and against a weaker opponent, Meeks’ defense wouldn’t be much of an issue (he isn’t a terrible defender). Of course, that’s not the case, so Philly fans should definitely feel uneasy about this one. Expect everyone from Holiday, Andre Iguodala and possibly even Evan Turner to help defend Wade.

Advantage: HEAT

Small Forward: LeBron James vs. Andre Iguodala

Iguodala (knee) will be a game-time decision for Saturday’s matchup, but even if he does suit up, one has to wonder if he’s healthy enough to defend LeBron James.

For as much abuse as James took this season, he put forth his usual outstanding effort, leading the league in Player Efficiency Rating, finishing second in scoring (26.7 PPG) and beating all non-point guards in assists per game (7.0).

When healthy, Iguodala is a tenacious perimeter defender who combines speed and strength in much the same way James does. The biggest difference is that Iguodala is only 6-6, which means he could have more success defending Wade. When Meeks goes to the bench, Thaddeus Young will likely defend James while Iguodala slides over to shooting guard.

In any case, James cannot be guarded by any one player. Big men Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes will have to stop him at the rim and the 76ers perimeter guys will have to be conscious of James’ kickout options (Mike Miller, James Jones, etc.).

Offensively Iguodala has declined slightly over the last three seasons, but he remains a good passer and penetrator. James won’t be the only HEAT player guarding Iggy, so while this matchup may exist on paper, it’s hard to say how it will play out on the court.  

Advantage: HEAT

Power Forward: Chris Bosh vs. Elton Brand

Bosh and Brand are two very different players who happen to share the same position. The former is a lanky, faceup big man who likes to put the ball on the floor while the latter is a back-to-the-basket player who thrives in the paint.

Those who haven’t seen Philadelphia play this season may think it’s an obvious advantage for Miami, but Brand had a resurgent season. He improved his scoring average (15 PPG), rebounding average (8.3 RPG) and shooting percentages (51.2% from the field, 78% from the line) while playing over 500 more minutes than he did last season. Even Collins admits Brand will never be the same player he was before the shoulder injury, but the veteran has managed to be a major contributor despite seeing the slight deterioration of his skills.

Bosh’s numbers took a slight dip, but mostly because he’s playing next to James and Wade. He can still be counted upon to drive past slower power forwards and attack the hoop, but Bosh can also be overpowered at times. A strong player like Brand should pose a major hurdle for Bosh, but that wasn’t the case the last time these two teams played: Brand played 39 minutes and finished with just eight points while Bosh was 20 and 10 in the same amount of time.

Advantage: HEAT

Center: Erick Dampier vs. Spencer Hawes

Absolutely no one will buy a ticket to see Dampier (or Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Joel Anthony or Jamaal Magloire) take on Spencer Hawes because it’s probably the least-compelling matchup in the entire NBA Playoffs.

Neither party has done particularly well this season. The HEAT centers have a cumulative -3.1 PER differential according to 82games.com, while Hawes finished 31st among NBA centers in rebounding rate.

Don’t be shocked to see both teams go small with Bosh and Brand sliding over to center, because neither Philadelphia nor Miami has a center they can be proud of.

In the brief moments when they are on the floor together, Hawes’ respectable jump shot could pull Dampier out of the paint and away from the rim. But if that’s not falling, the veteran big man can drop anchor in the paint and challenge the drives of Brand, Iguodala, Young and Lou Williams.

Advantage: Even

{AUTHOR_BOX}Bench: Juwan Howard, Mike Miller, James Jones, Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mario Chalmers and Eddie House vs. Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, Andres Nocioni, Evan Turner, Tony Battie, Jason Kapono and Marreese Speights

There are a lot of disparities between Philadelphia and Miami, but perhaps none is greater than this: The 76ers’ bench scored 39.2 PPG this year (third in the NBA) while Miami’s mustered only 21.9 PPG (dead last).

The HEAT may have three MAJOR advantages, but the bench isn’t one of them. Yes, Mike Miller and James Jones can shoot, but the former has battled injuries all year and the latter is a poor athlete who gets exposed on the defensive end.

Miami’s most important reserve may be Mario Chalmers, who can shoot and score but gambles far too often on the defensive end. Ilgauskas can shoot as well, but his limitations as a pick-and-roll defender are starting to catch up with him.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, has two of the league’s most-productive backups in Young (12.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 18.46 PER) and Williams (13.7 PPG, 3.4 APG, 18.93 PER). Both players are phenomenal athletes who can finish at the rim, score in traffic and handle themselves on the defensive end.

Yes, the 76ers also have gritty role players like Nocioni and Battie on the bench, but the real reason behind this season’s success is the energy they’ve gotten from Young and Williams.

Advantage: 76ers

Coach: Erik Spoelstra vs. Doug Collins

Spoelstra survived the shadow of Pat Riley and in doing so gained the support of his entire team. He’s helped Miami overcome serious personnel issues (after the big three, this team might as well be the Cleveland Cavaliers) while keeping Bosh, James and Wade fresh for a title run.

There’s been a lot of criticism of Spoelstra this season, but he’s done a remarkable job of blending three unique talents. It’s hard to put three huge talents on the court together and expect them to coexist, so he definitely deserves a great deal of credit.

However, Collins survived his own tribulations as well in his first season with the 76ers. In particular, there was the team’s 3-13 start that was exacerbated by his own bout with vertigo. 

But Collins overcame both problems to help give Philadelphia a new defensive identity and arguably the league’s best bench. He may not have the players that Spoelstra has, but Collins has been battle tested since the 1980s.

Advantage: 76ers

Final Prediction: HEAT in 5

The 76ers made a huge step in the right direction this season and should be in a better position in 2011-2012, but right now the HEAT are just a better team. Philadelphia has a complete 12-man roster of complementary players, but such a complex tableau is no match for the beautiful simplicity of Miami’s game. Simply put, James, Wade and Bosh are too strong, too fast and too good.

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