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For fans in New York, it has been a long, long time since they had a reason to get excited about their hometown team, as the Knickerbockers haven’t won a single playoff game in a decade.  Yet the city is abuzz right now, as the franchise has finally risen from the ashes of the Isiah era.  After 10 years spent on the outside of the playoffs looking in, simply qualifying for the postseason generates genuine excitement and optimism in NYC.
 
200 miles north, in New England, the atmosphere is completely different.  The mood is far more somber (and it’s not just because the Red Sox have the worst record in baseball).  Since the day the Big 3 arrived in Boston, landing near Plymouth Rock back in summer of 2007, the Celtics immediately established themselves as one of the NBA’s truly elite teams.  And they haven’t budged.  They won a ‘chip in 2008, and advanced all the way to the Game 7 of the Finals last season.  Heading into the 2010-2011 campaign as the reigning Easter Conference champs, they were viewed as one of the league’s few legit contenders for the crown.  And after storming out of the gates by winning 23 of their first 27 games, then amassing a 41-14 record by the time the All-Star break rolled around, it appeared they were well on their way.  However, the Celtics have recently regressed and their momentum has come to a screeching halt.  Many have attributed the C’s current "slump" to the deadline-day deal in which Danny Ainge traded away Kendrick Perkins.  Perkins was a beloved teammate and defensive stalwart, one of the premier post defenders in the sport.  Whatever the reason, Boston hasn’t been the same team this Spring.   
 
While the younger Knicks, fresh off a recent seven-game winning streak, appear to be sprinting towards the postseason, the C’s re limping into mid-April, both literally and figuratively.  However, we have learned not to read too much into these perceived red flags.  Just last year, the C’s lost seven of their final 10 regular season games.  Moreover, Boston’s first-round opponent was the Miami HEAT, who were scorching hot heading into the 2010 postseason.  The HEAT were 12-1 in their final 13 games of the regular season.  Yet, Boston spanked Miami in five quick games, and that was just the beginning.  The moral of this short story is a sobering reminder to excited Knicks fans: Don’t read too much into the Celtics slump or the Knicks recent surge.     

This Celtics team is intent on keeping their window of opportunity propped open for another run deep into June, and capping it off with a parade and an 18th banner for Beantown.; while the Knicks and the rest of the East is harboring hopes that one of these years Boston won’t be able to simply flip the switch and seamlessly ease back into domination mode.

Point Guard: Chauncey Billups vs. Rajon Rondo
The more and more I think about it, the more convinced I am that point guard play is going to be absolutely crucial in deciding the winner of this series. 
 
Rondo is the engine that powers the Celtics offense.  When he is blanketed and becomes disengaged, the Boston offense tends to sputter and stall out.  As I detailed in a piece posted recently on NewYorkTimes.com, Rondo has been in a funk for the better part of two months now.  Many assume it is directly related to Perkins (purportedly Rajon’s best friend on the team) being shipped out of town.  Whatever the cause might be, the Knicks need to make sure Rondo doesn’t bust out in a big way over the next two weeks.    
 
When Rondo is aggressive and effective offensively, the Celtics seem to soar.  On the season, Boston is 36-6 (.857 winning percentage) in games which Rondo dishes out at least 10 dimes. They are just 11-15 (.423%) when he records nine assists or fewer.  During the Celtics playoff run last season, Rondo dished out double-digit assist in 10 games; Boston was 8-2 in those contests.  And Rondo can be downright dominant when he brings his ‘A-game.’ In the Knicks second road game this season, they travelled to Boston.  Rondo powered the C’s to four-point victory; exploding for 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 24! assists (joining Isiah Thomas as only the second player in NBA history to ever tally 24 assists in a triple-double.)
 
Last year, arguably the most important game the C’s played during the first three rounds of the postseason was Game 4 against the Cavs.  Boston trailed 2-1 in the series (the only time they trailed during the first three rounds), and if they had lost that game, they’d be down 3-1 to LeBron and company, heading back to Cleveland for Game 5.  So what did Rondo do?  He put the C’s on his back and simply took over the game, finishing with 29 points, 13 assists, and 18 boards. 
 
Knick defenders – and this responsibility will fall primarily on Chauncey Billups, Toney Douglas and even Jared Jeffries – will be tasked with keeping Rondo out of the paint.  If he is able to penetrate into the heart of the defense, Rondo will pick the Knicks apart.  The idea is to force Rondo to settle for jumpers, which tends to suck life out of Boston when they clang off the iron.  
 
On the Knicks side of the ledger, Chauncey Billups, while not as crucial to the Knicks success, is undoubtedly an X-Factor in this series.  Knicks fans can expect solid scoring from both Melo and Stoudemire, but if Billups can consistently help shoulder the load, he could be a difference-maker.  Fortunately for New York, Billups is one of the most playoff-proven performers in the NBA.  Not only does he have an NBA Finals MVP trophy on his mantelpiece, Chauncey has advanced to at least the Conference Finals in seven of the past eight seasons.
 
This is a tough matchup to call, as both PG’s have the potential to take over games.  Yet, predicting which Rondo shows up in this series is difficult.  I’ll give the edge to the Celtics, as Rondo, if he brings it, is a nightmare matchup for any opposing PG
 
Advantage: Celtics
 
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields vs. Ray Allen
Far less analysis necessary here, as the Celtics have the clear upper hand.  Ray Allen is one of the best shooters the league has ever seen, and has hit more three-pointers than any player that ever set foot on an NBA floor.  Landry Fields on the other hand, is just 82 games removed from a losing season in the Pac-10 at Stanford.  The Knicks just have to hope that Fields can make life difficult for Allen, and keep a hand in his face as Ray-Ray peels off screens.  Any offense the rookie provides would be a bonus. 
 
Advantage: Celtics   
 
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony vs. Paul Pierce
Melo and The Truth squaring off under the bright lights of Broadway – as an NBA fan, you can’t ask for much more than this.  Pierce has been a beast during this recent three-year run by the Celtics.  He has hit countless big shots in big spots.  In fact, even on a team loaded with future hall-or-famers, it is often Pierce who gets trusted with the ball in his hands when the game on the line. 
 
However, Carmelo Anthony certainly isn’t a guy that will shy away from a big moment.  Although he doesn’t have a NBA Finals MVP on his resume (as Pierce does), Melo has been one of the league’s most clutch shooters in end-game situations since entering the league back in 2003.  Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Carmelo is 19-39 (.487) in his career on shots that tie or put his team ahead in the final 10 seconds of regulation or overtime. That stands as the highest percentage for any active NBA player (minimum 20 attempts) in those situations during regular season play since 2003-04. Among all active players, Carmelo’s 16 go-ahead shots (two games were later tied) are the most in the NBA since 2003-04.  However, Melo has not achieved nearly the same level of success in the postseason as Pierce.  Although Melo has made the playoffs every season of his career, he has only advanced past the first round once. 
 
While Carmelo is younger and squarely in his prime, Piece is a grizzled vet that has proven he shines when the lights are their brightest.  Is Melo ready to step up on stage and star on that level? We shall see…
 
Advantage: Even
 
Power Forward: Amar’e Stoudemire vs. Kevin Garnett
Another fascinating matchup… KG is the heart and soul of this Celtics squad.  He demands intense effort from everybody wearing green, and although he is a bit long in the tooth, Garnet is still one of the NBA’s fiercest defenders.  KG is also efficient and effective offensively, punishing opponents in a variety of ways.  In his three meeting against New York this season, Garnett averaged a stout 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds. 
 
Not to be outdone, Amar’e Stoudemire is averaging 27.3 ppg and 9.7 boards against Boston this season.  Amar’e has emerged as the true leader of the Knicks since setting foot in NYC.  While Garnett’s impact on the Celtics franchise was truly unique and impossible to duplicate, Amar’e deserves a ton of credit for turning around a woebegone franchise.  Stoudemire brought with him an incredible swagger that was immediately infectious.  On the eve of his first postseason in New York, you know STAT won’t be intimated by Garnett, or anyone else for that matter.  Can Amar’e mesh with Melo and Billups?  Can he step up defensively and help protect the basket?  We’ll find out soon enough. 
 
Stoudemire is younger, stronger, healthier, etc.  Still, no one is hungrier than Garnett.  Even though KG has lost a bit off his fastball, you can safely assume he’ll be insanely motivated, knowing that he may not have many cracks left at another title.  KG is still too good, his will too strong, to say another PF has a clear advantage matched up against him… 
 
Advantage: Even
 
Center: Ronny Turiaf (?) vs. Shaquille O’Neal (?)
How shallow are the Knicks at center?  Sheldon Williams, who saw very limited minutes as a seldom-used reserve off the bench for Boston last season, may end up starting Game 1 for New York.  How shallow and fragile are the Celtics are center nowadays?  If Williams was still on the C’s, there’s a chance he’d start Game 1 for Boston.
 
As Danny Ainge has been made well aware of by now, the Celtics players, fans, and media, sure do miss Kendrick Perkins.  The question going into the postseason is whether or not the remaining big men on the Celtics roster can stay healthy and contribute.  Nenad Krstic, who came over in the Perkins deal, is an efficient scorer in the post, but a clear liability on defense.  Jermaine O’Neal has missed the majority of the regular season dealing with a variety of aliments, but played 37 minutes Monday and claims he is ready to roll.  But the most important big body on the Celtics roster belongs to Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq, even at an advanced age and a shell of his former self, can still cause problems for opponents.  However, he has played in just one game (for five minutes) since February 1st.  Shaq is currently nursing a strained right calf, and is listed as day-to-day.  It sounds like Doc Rivers and the C’s are "cautiously optimistic" that Shaq will be able to play on Sunday in Game 1.        

As for New York, Coach Mike D’Antoni reveled Wednesday that he is planning on starting Ronny Turiaf in Game 1, although he freely admits he expects to utilize a ‘three-headed monster’ of Turiaf, Sheldon Williams, and Jared Jeffries.  Williams sprained his ankle in the regular season finale, but told reporters afterwards that he was fine.  Moreover, the Knicks will likely often attempt to ‘go small’ which means playing Amar’e at 5, in attempt to quicken the pace of play and cause match-up problems for Boston. 

Still too much uncertainly regarding the health of Shaq to make a definitive decision…
 
Advantage: To Be Determined 
 
Bench: Toney Douglas/ Shawne Williams/ Sheldon Williams/ Anthony Carter/ Jared Jeffries/ Bill Walker vs. Glen Davis /Jeff Green / Nenad Krstic/ Delonte West/ Jermaine O’Neal/ Carlos Arroyo  
 
{AUTHOR_BOX}The best player in this grouping may very well be Big Baby Davis, who can be inconsistent at times, but has been a key cog for the Celtics.  The wildcard is Jeff Green.  Green, who was originally drafted by Boston, is the reason Ainge pulled the trigger on the Perkins deal.  If the Knicks go small, as we should expect, Green, who can play either forward spot, could see extended PT as Boston tries to match up with New York’s unorthodox run-and-gun lineup.  And if the O’Neal boys (Shaq and Jermaine) are unable to stay healthy and on the floor, Krstic all of sudden becomes an important piece for Boston.  They will need him to provide decent minutes up front.
 
For New York, Toney Douglas is important player off the pine.  Douglas leads the NBA in three-pointers made since the All-Star break, and has been a solid weapon for D’Antoni of late.  However, Douglas, who tends to run hot and cold as a shooter, most important job will be providing solid defense.  As I alluded to above, expect Douglas to spend a lot of time attempting to stay in front of Rondo.  Shawne Williams will spot up for his customary corner three’s, which he needs to knock down (Knicks will need all the points they can get against Boston’s stout defense). Bill Walker is motivated going up against his former squad.  
 
Advantage: Boston
 
Coach: Mike D’Antoni vs. Doc Rivers
The knock on D’Antoni’s system has always been that although it produces significant regular season success, it is not quite as effective in the postseason, when the games slows down, possessions become precious, and an emphasis is placed on defense.  D’Antoni years to prove doubters wrong, but hasn’t had an opportunity over the last couple of seasons.  Back in the playoffs, with some star power on his side, D’Antoni is looking to pull off a major upset (and earn himself a heft contract extension in the process).

Doc Rivers has established himself as one of the premier coaches in the NBA, guiding the Celtics deep in to the playoff three seasons in a row.  This year may prove to be his toughest challenge yet.  Can he help get Rondo back on track? How will he handle D’Antoni’s offensive attack?  Fortunately for Boston, Rivers has seen it all.  A prefect fit for his team, Rivers and company will look to steadily guide the C’s back to the Promised Land 
 
Advantage: Boston

 
Prediction: Celtics in 7
This has a chance to be an incredibly entertaining series.  They say styles make fights – well, there are two distinct styles clashing in this Northeast slugfest.  Mix in a healthy helping of superstar talent, two enthusiastic, rival fan bases, and the renewed intensity of postseason basketball; and you have the makings of must-see TV.  I fully expect the series to last seven games, and the Celtics would have to be considered heavy favorites in a deciding game played in Boston. 

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