Playoff Preview: Lakers vs. Hornets
The Los Angeles Lakers begin their playoff run by hosting the New Orleans Hornets after barely surviving a wild-regular-season ender in Sacramento. A crazy 29-11 fourth quarter saw the Kings force overtime, but the Lakers eventually locked in the two seed.
The Hornets are trying to salvage a difficult season after star power forward David West tore his ACL in late March. In West’s absence, New Orleans starts mid-season acquisition Carl Landry who has a history of solid play against the Lakers.
L.A. came out of the All-Star Break on an absolute tear with center Andrew Bynum leading the way defensively. This past Tuesday night he suffered a hyper-extended knee, bruising the bone.
It’s not considered a serious injury but Coach Phil Jackson may sit Bynum for Game 1 as a precaution, just to give him a full week off on that knee before his Game 2 debut. That, however, is still up in the air and Andrew may not miss a game.
Chris Paul remains one of the best point guards in the league, but the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and a chance to give Jackson his fourth career three-peat.
It would be an upset if the 46-36 Hornets defeat the 57-25 Lakers, but nothing is a given in the NBA . . .
Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Chris Paul – As is often the case, this is the one position where the Lakers yield by a wide margin. Paul is a difficult cover. Although he didn’t have a great shooting year by his standards (46.6%, down from about 50% the two seasons prior), Chris can control a ballgame from start to finish.
He averaged 9.8 assists a game along with 2.4 steals throughout the regular season. His career-high of 21 assists came against the Lakers (albeit back in 2007). Paul’s scoring is down to 16.0 from his peak in 2008-09 when he put up 22.8 a game.
Conversely, Fisher is a role player for the Lakers. His 2.7 assists per game are fourth on the team behind Kobe Bryant (4.7), Pau Gasol (3.3) and Lamar Odom (3.0). Derek shot just 38.7% from the field this season but he’s a dangerous outside threat (39.5%) – more so in the postseason where he’s made a career of hitting big shots.
Derek wins on intangibles but when it comes to point guard vs. point guard, he’s not in the same stratosphere as Paul.
Advantage: Hornets
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Marco Belinelli – This is sizable mismatch as Bryant remains one of the best players in the league. Despite playing fewer minutes this year than usual (33.9, down from 38.8 the year before), Kobe still averaged 25.3 points a game.
Byrant’s minutes tend to rise during the postseason (as needed) along with his output. Belinelli is going to have his hands full.
After a couple of years in Golden State and one in Toronto, Marco finally found a role in New Orleans. He started 68 games for the Hornets, shooting an impressive 41.1% from three while averaging 10.4 points.
Belinelli’s not going to fill up the box sheet with boards, assists or even steals. Defensively he’s not really a stopper so the Hornets may look to cross-match with Trevor Ariza on Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers
Small Forward: Ron Artest vs. Trevor Ariza – He said, she said. It’s still not entirely clear what went down a couple of summers ago when the Lakers passed on Ariza and signed Artest, despite Trevor making a major contribution to the team’s 2009 title.
General Manager Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers felt like they were going to be faced with a long, protracted negotiation with the younger, more athletic Ariza, so they jumped at Artest.
Ron was a known quantity who the team felt would be better suited to defend players like LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony.
It may or may not have been a difficult decision for the Lakers, but it left Ariza feeling slighted.
Trevor went on to struggle with his shot in Houston and now New Orleans.
For the Lakers in the 2009 playoffs, Ariza shot 49.7% from the field and a stunning 47.6% from three. This past year for the Hornets, he hit just 39.4% and 30.3%, respectively.
Still, Ariza is a capable defender who still has the ability to hit big shots when called upon.
Artest isn’t much of an offensive force for the Lakers so Ariza may become a roamer or fully dedicated to checking Bryant.
Ron shot under 40% on the season and 35.6% from three. Throughout last year’s playoffs, teams would just leave off of him and Artest hit just 29.1% from behind the arc.
If he can stay at 35%, the Lakers should be fine. Artest is still capable of shutting down an elite scorer. He also hit a couple of huge shots that helped the Lakers win the title.
The Lakers/Hornets series won’t turn on the small forward position, but it will be interesting to see the Artest vs. Ariza.
Advantage: Lakers
Power Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Carl Landry – The battle at the four would be a lot closer if David West were healthy. The former All-Star averaged 18.9 points this season on 50.8% shooting along with 7.4 boards.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Instead, the Hornets will go with Landry who is at a more manageable 11.9 points and 4.6 boards. Carl was a force off the bench for the Houston Rockets against the Lakers a couple of years ago. His production should go up this series.
For the Hornets to have a chance, Landry is going to have to really produce.
Gasol remains one of the best big men in the league. While his game is predicated more on finesse than force, Pau averaged 18.8 points a game on 52.9% shooting, 10.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a game.
Advantage: Lakers
Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Emeka Okafor – The big scare this week with may have been over-blown. Bynum may miss a game, but there’s also a decent chance he’s ready to start on Sunday.
Andrew averaged 11.3 points, 9.4 boards and 2.0 blocks a game in his 54 appearances.
The biggest issue with Bynum remains health, but if the bone bruise proves to truly be minor, Andrew’s role as defensive anchor has should have a major impact on the Lakers..
When Andrew is patrolling the middle, the Lakers team defense can be truly stifling.
Equally, the Hornets have a productive center in Emeka Okafor who put up 10.4 points on 57.2% shooting, 9.6 boards and 1.8 blocks a game.
The series for New Orleans, if they’re going to have any chance, is going to come down to Okafor playing some of the best basketball of his career.
Advantage: Lakers
Bench – If Bynum does sit a game, the Laker bench takes a hit as Sixth Man of the Year candidate Lamar Odom would start in his stead. Otherwise, Odom has had one of his best seasons as a Laker, putting up numbers despite player fewer minutes.
Lamar averaged 14.4 points a game on 52.9% shooting including a career-high 38.2% from three but the numbers don’t tell the entire story.
In the triangle offense, Odom can play all five positions. Jackson likes Bryant to play forward in the offense which becomes possible when the 6’10" Odom capably handles the guard duties.
Odom alone may make L.A.’s bench stronger than New Orleans’.
Otherwise the Lakers have a few issues to deal with, specifically early in the playoffs, given that reserve point guard Steve Blake is out with the chicken pox. It remains to be seen if he’s back before the series concludes.
Matt Barnes is nursing a sore knee but he’s been a solid energy guy for the Lakers. Shannon Brown is athletic but has struggled for most of 2011 to fit into the offense.
Between Brown and recent D-League call-up Trey Johnson, someone will have to help handle the point guard duties behind Fisher.
Luke Walton may get some time although that may not be the case for rookies Derrick Caracter or Devin Ebanks. Veterans Joe Smith and Theo Ratliff are for emergency only.
The Hornets have a thinner bench with Landry starting. Willie Green can be a spark. Jarrett Jack is steady.
Jason Smith is a big man with range although he doesn’t shoot the three-ball. Aaron Gray is big. DJ Mbenga is an ex-Laker but he doesn’t play much for the Hornets. Coach Monty Williams also has players like Quincy Pondexter, David Andersen and Patrick Ewing, Jr.
Unfortunately on paper, it doesn’t add up to much.
Advantage: Lakers
Coaching: Phil Jackson vs. Monty Williams – Williams is a rookie coach going against Jackson who has 11 rings.
Williams is going to have to find a way to defend Bryant, Gasol, Bynum and Odom while getting enough help for Paul to outscore L.A. four times in seven tries.
It’s going to be tough.
Advantage: Lakers
Final Prediction: Lakers in 4
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