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Playoff Preview: Lakers vs. Mavericks

Posted By Eric Pincus On April 29, 2011 @ 10:00 am In All,NBA | No Comments

The Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks will meet on Monday night for Game 1 of their second-round Western Conference match up.  It’s the first time these two franchises will battle in the postseason during the Kobe Bryant/Dirk Nowitzki eras.

Both teams needed six games to get past their respective first-round battles.  The Lakers lost the opener to the New Orleans Hornets but took two of three on the road to close out Thursday night.

The Mavericks also advanced past the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday, sweeping their three at home and closing on the road.

Dallas won the first regular season meeting by nine points but the Lakers took the last two in March (one in Texas).  The game in Los Angeles proved to be a wild affair with five players ejected and a 28-point victory for the home team.

The Mavericks are a dangerous but vulnerable team but then so are the Lakers.

Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Jason Kidd – The Lakers have a veteran role player in Fisher at the one.  He’s not going to edge out Jason Kidd (one of the league’s best point guards over the last decade) in a direct comparison but Fisher will have less of a problem against Dallas then he did against Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets.

Fisher’s strengths include intangibles like leadership and experience but Derek is also a clutch shooter in the most crucial of moments.

Kidd has also developed into a strong outside shooter.  In the first round against the Blazers, Kidd hit 39.4% from three which is remarkable given that Jason didn’t have any jumper when he initially broke into the league.

While Fisher is a point guard only in name and hardly the Lakers’ primary playmaker, Kidd orchestrates the Dallas offense.

The Lakers aren’t going to have to worry about Jason hitting shots from just about everywhere on the floor while averaging over 24 points and 11 assists a game like Paul, but Kidd is still a concern.

Neither Fisher nor Kidd have tremendous foot speed but in the past Jason did a credible job in stretches guarding Bryant. {AUTHOR_BOX}

Advantage:  Mavericks

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. DeShawn Stevenson – Bryant remains one of the best players in the league.  He’s always been a problem for the Mavericks – the most explosive example was the 62 points Kobe scored in three quarters which topped the entire Dallas team combined (61) back in 2005.

Obviously both teams are very different but dealing with Kobe will be the key issue for the Mavericks, perhaps more so than some of the other teams trying to get through the Western Conference.

DeShawn Stevenson started against the Blazers, serving primarily as a short-minute defender.  He’ll need to prove that he can provide an adequate level of resistance against Bryant although it’s possible Coach Rick Carlisle will cross match Shawn Marion onto Kobe.

Between the two teams, this would be the biggest mismatch.

The Hornets had some success with Trevor Ariza on Bryant.  If an opponent can find a player to provide some level of single-coverage against Kobe, that may allow for doubles on Pau Gasol which proved effective for New Orleans early in the series.

Advantage:  Lakers

Small Forward: Ron Artest vs. Shawn Marion – Last year Ron Artest was an anchor on the offensive end, shooting so poorly that teams practically begged him to take wide-open shots.

Against the Hornets in the first round, Artest was so steady that Coach Phil Jackson noted he was probably the Lakers’ most consistent player.

Through six games he shot 38.9% from three while averaging 11.8 points a game. 

He’s still a top-notch defender which could make life difficult for Marion.

Shawn doesn’t score or rebound like he used to with the Phoenix Suns but he’s still a productive player, filling in for the injured Caron Butler (knee). 

There’s a chance that Butler returns this series against the Lakers but after many months off, in all likelihood it’d be in a bench capacity.

Marion serves as the Mavericks’ best perimeter defender. 

Neither Marion nor Artest will be relied upon for a lot of offense . . . but either can spark a win with a big night.

Advantage: Lakers

Power Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Dirk Nowitzki – Gasol is a two-time NBA champion and one of the Lakers’ best players.  Nowitzki has been to the Finals once but has yet to win a ring.

Which player is better?

Gasol is more of an inside, low-post threat but Nowitzki’s jump shot is devastating and he can hit in end-game situations.

If the comparison between Gasol and Dirk is made during the regular season, perhaps it’s closer but so far through the postseason Dirk has been the better player.

Pau struggled against the Hornets, shooting just 41.8% from the field while averaging 13.5 points a game.

Against the Blazers, Nowitzki put up 27.3 points on 45.2% shooting.

With the Lakers, Gasol is supposedly the team’s second option behind Bryant but against the Hornets, he was, at best, the team’s third-best scorer.

Pau has greater mobility and is a better defender than Dirk but Gasol can be taken out of his game by physical defenders.  Nowitzki’s jump shot, though a double-edged sword, can make him less vulnerable than Gasol to the meatier, tougher post defenders.

On the other hand, one of Dallas’ fatal flaws may be their best score is primarily a jump-shooter.

LA has length to bother Nowitzki with Gasol (and Lamar Odom).  Sometimes Dirk can be bothered by smaller defenders who get into his body.

The Mavericks need to apply constant, physical pressure to make sure Gasol stays uncomfortable.  If it’s going to take too much pounding, Pau will take his shots further and further away from the basket.

Advantage: Mavericks

Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Tyson Chandler – For the Lakers, Bynum has emerged as the team’s defensive anchor and a reliable low-post scorer.

Against the Hornets, Bynum shot 55.6% from the field while scoring 15.2 points a game.  He also grabbed 10.3 boards and blocked 1.8 shots against the undersized New Orleans’ front line.

Can he do the same against Chandler, one of the better defensive centers in the league?

Tyson isn’t a major offensive force, although he shoots high percentages from the field and line.

It’s Chandler’s size, defense, rebounding and shot-blocking that the Mavericks will need in force to compete with the Lakers.

Bynum will have a tough time going on Chandler than he did against the (relatively) undersized Emeka Okafor.

If Tyson can keep Bynum contained, the Mavericks have a much better chance against LA.

Advantage: Lakers

Bench – Lamar Odom beat out Jason Terry for Sixth Man of the Year.  Both represent their bench units well.  Both can be the difference in a win.

Odom does it more on the boards while Terry is a potent outside shooter.  When Lamar’s outside game is on, the Lakers are very hard to beat.  He’s also one of the Lakers’ primary ball-handlers.

Terry plays major minutes and with his quickness, may be a difficult cover for the Lakers.  At 6’2", he doesn’t have the size to stick with Bryant but either Marion or Kidd can try and pick up Kobe defensively.

LA will rotate Odom in as a defender on Nowitzki.

Shannon Brown, Matt Barnes and Steve Blake round out the rest of the Laker bench.  Jackson will primarily use a nine-man rotation.  Each is capable of a big night, be it offensively or defensively, but more often than not they’re just adequate.

Brown’s outside shot hasn’t dropped regularly since 2010.  Barnes is still nursing a sore knee after mid season surgery.  Blake missed the first game of the Hornets’ series with the chicken pox.  He may prove to be a valuable piece against the Mavericks defensively.

Brendan Haywood will back up Tyson Chandler and while he’s not quite the same player, he’s still a capable big-man.  Brian Cardinal may get some minutes this series to help on Gasol.

The Mavericks bring in Peja Stojakovic to spread the floor.  J.J. Barea has the kind of quickness in a ball-handling guard that can give the Lakers’ issues.

So too does Rodrigue Beaubois, who is coming off an ankle injury. 

Caron Butler, if healthy, could be an option.  So too may be Corey Brewer as a defensive choice if Bryant becomes a serious problem.

Advantage: Mavericks

Coaching: Phil Jackson vs. Rick Carlisle – Jackson is looking for his fourth three-peat.  Carlisle, while a strong coach, still has a lot to prove on the bigger stages.

The Lakers seem to get better as series progress. 

The Mavericks have historically folded under pressure – the most recent example was Game 4 against the Blazers – but they did close out the Blazers in six despite the one-game disaster.

Can Carlisle prevent collapse or are the Mavericks stronger for having survived it?

Advantage: Lakers

Final Prediction: Lakers in 6


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