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Two very familiar foes meet up in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs as the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs take on the eight-place Memphis Grizzlies. Both teams hail from the Southwest Division and have met up on four separate occasions this season. They split the series, with the Grizzlies taking the last two meetings, both in Memphis.

This is the first time the Grizzlies have made it to the playoffs in four years. Their last appearance came in 2006, when they were swept out for the third-consecutive season. Those three years happen to mark the only trips they’ve made it to the postseason in their 16 years of existence, meaning they’ve yet to actually win a playoff game.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are participating in the second season for the 14th-straight year. They’ve won four championships during that time period and have aspirations of adding one more Larry O’Brien trophy to their collection. With all-everything power forward Tim Duncan nearing retirement they’re really rallying behind the possibility of this being their last chance to make a serious run with him as their leader.

The Grizzlies will be without their top perimeter player Rudy Gay, who has been out since February 15th with a left shoulder injury. When the injury occurred it was thought to be devastating for the Grizzlies as a team since Gay was arguably playing the best basketball of his career up to that point. However, they’ve done anything but quit without him. They won 9 of 13 to end the regular season and believe they can beat the Spurs even if nobody else does.

Point Guard: Tony Parker vs. Mike Conley Jr.
This has the potential to be a very long series for Mike Conley Jr. even if it only lasts four games like all of the Grizzlies’ other playoff trips. The Spurs and Grizzlies head-to-head matchups in the regular season made it very clear that Conley Jr. could not keep Tony Parker in front of him. Parker recognized that and attacked him regularly, going off for 37 points and nine assists in a December contest.

With Ginobili slowed down by an injury and Duncan in the later stage of his career expect Parker’s aggressiveness to be as high as it’s ever been. One of the reasons the Spurs locked him up to a long-term extension this past October was because they felt like he could be a leader for them in the post-Duncan era. Look at this as a bit of foreshadowing as to what the new-look Spurs will play like in the future.

Conley Jr. was also signed to a long-term deal this season and is coming off of the best statistical year of his career. He’s steadily improved throughout his four years in the league, but this is going to be a real learning experience for him. He doesn’t possess the necessary attributes to slow Parker down and will only be able to hope to contain him.
 
Advantage: Spurs

Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili vs. Tony Allen
The health of Manu Ginobili may be this series’ biggest storyline as he suffered a sprained right elbow in the last game of the season. He’s officially been listed as doubtful for Game 1, but it’s hard to imagine Ginobili missing much time if any at all.

Even if he was healthy, Tony Allen is a very tough matchup. He’s a defensive standout who thrives when going up against All-Stars like Ginobili. He won’t have any sympathy for the ailing Argentinian. 

Allen’s defense has always been the trademark of his game, but he’s actually been a steady source of offense as well for the Grizzlies this year. He’s been putting up 13 points a game since being moved to the starting lineup in place of O.J. Mayo. His second-biggest scoring output of the season came against the Spurs on March 27th when he scored 23 points.

Allen will certainly put forth an incredible effort, but Ginobili is just the better player and he’ll get the better of this matchup as long as he’s not held back too much by his right elbow, which will likely be braced up.

Advantage: Spurs

Small Forward: Richard Jefferson vs. Sam Young
If Gay was healthy the Grizzlies would undoubtedly have an advantage in this matchup. Jefferson started the season off strong and seemed to finally find his niche in the Spurs’ system. As the season has progressed, though, he’s looked more and more like the disappointing Jefferson of last season. Rather than being assertive and looking to utilize his strengths he’s settled for becoming primarily a spot-up shooter.

{AUTHOR_BOX}That makes second-year forward Sam Young’s job defensively pretty simple. His biggest concern will be Jefferson catching fire from distance, but overall he’s nowhere near as tough of a cover as he was prior to landing with the Spurs.

Young’s production as a starter has nearly doubled from what it was as a reserve. He’s scoring nine points on 48% shooting from the field and 40% from deep while also pulling down three rebounds a night.

Jefferson won’t have to worry about him exploding for a big outing as long as he gives him the proper amount of attention. If this matchup was occurring three years ago Coach Hollins would have a lot to worry about, but Young won’t be completely outclassed as long as Jefferson plays like he has been lately.

Advantage: Spurs

Power Forward: Tim Duncan vs. Zach Randolph
This will be the matchup to watch in the series as Tim Duncan, the all-time greatest power forward to ever play, goes up against one of the real forces at the position in Zach Randolph. While Duncan’s résumé cannot be touched by Randolph, the Michigan State product has surpassed Duncan in today’s day and age.

Randolph has been good for 20 points and 12 rebounds a night this season and is liable to breakout for even more on any given night in this series. It’s been quite a long time since he’s been in the playoffs. Pair that up with the motivation he has from wanting a new contract and you have someone who will be a real handful for the Spurs.

Duncan is capable of breaking out for a big performance as well, but it’s hard to imagine him being able to match what Randolph produces consistently. In fact, Popovich will probably look to Antonio McDyess to guard Randolph for much of the series in order to keep Duncan out of foul trouble.

Advantage: Grizzlies

Center: Marc Gasol vs. Antonio McDyess
As mentioned above, we will likely see a lot more of Marc Gasol going up against Duncan than Antonio McDyess. Popovich tends to give McDyess assignments like that. He’s got the experience and ability to at least make Randolph work for what he gets because in reality there is just no stopping a player as good as him.

Gasol is a fine player in his own right, as well. Regardless of who is defending him he needs to be aggressive and look to be a bigger force on the boards than he was in the regular season.

Although this is Gasol’s first time participating in the NBA Playoffs, he’s not new to playing in critical games on big stages. He’s played at the highest level internationally and won’t be overwhelmed by the moment.

Advantage: Grizzlies

Bench: George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Steve Novak, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and James Anderson vs. Shane Battier, O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur, Greivis Vasquez, Hamed Haddadi and Ishmael Smith.
The entire Spurs organization is envious over the Grizzlies having Shane Battier coming off of their bench. He’s someone they’ve admired for years and would love to have on their team. If he was a member of the Spurs he’d not only start, but he’d greatly improve their chances of winning another NBA championship.

O.J. Mayo is another guy who will make the Spurs cringe every time they see him come off the bench. Popovich has always had high praise for him; preventing him from getting hot will be a major priority for San Antonio.

The same will be the case for the Grizzlies and George Hill, a childhood friend of Mayo’s. Hill has become a vital part of the Spurs and will be expected to have his best showing ever in the playoffs. He was taken to school a bit last year in the second round as the Spurs got swept at the hands of the Phoenix Suns.

DeJuan Blair will be equally important as he’ll spend a lot of time defending both Gasol and Randolph. He’ll have to be ready to provide an instant impact off of the bench, as will Gary Neal. Neal can really fill it up offensively; the Grizzlies have to be aware of where he’s at every moment he’s on the floor.

As talented as the Grizzlies’ top two reserves are, the Spurs’ bench is deeper with a bigger scoring punch.

Advantage: Spurs

Coaching: Gregg Popovich vs. Lionel Hollins
Like many great coaches before him, Gregg Popovich has hit the point in this career where nothing less than perfection is acceptable. He gets criticized for decisions on holding/not holding his stars out, the plays he runs and the rotations he uses. Yet, there is only one coach in the league, Phil Jackson of the Los Angeles Lakers, who can hold a candle to what he’s accomplished in his career. The fact of the matter is that Pop knows what he’s doing; he’s one of the best ever. Going up against a playoff newbie in Lionel Hollins there really is no argument as to who the coaching advantage lies with.

Advantage: Spurs

Final Prediction: Spurs in 5
The Grizzlies’ future looks promising but this is the present and the Spurs’ time has not come to an end just yet. This season is too important to San Antonio, they’ll make the relatively easy work of the Grizzlies and move on to face either the Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets.

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