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Playoff Preview: Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Posted By Susan Bible On April 30, 2011 @ 6:25 pm In All,NBA | No Comments
The Memphis Grizzlies made history when they eliminated the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. And we’re talking significant contributions in the record books: 1) for the first time in franchise history, Memphis won a playoff series (finally breaking that 0-12 postseason record) and, 2) for just the fourth time in NBA history, a No. 8 seed beat a No. 1 seed in a playoff series (second time since the best-of-seven format was adopted).
The Oklahoma City Thunder franchise also made history with their first trip to the semifinals.
Both squads are young (no starter is over the age 30 on either team), quick and playing confidently; the Western Conference has new blood challenging the mainstays.
The Grizzlies were 3-1 against the Thunder during the regular season. Two of those wins were on Memphis’ home floor. The Thunder won one at home, and the other was a thrilling overtime battle with Memphis prevailing in Oklahoma City.
The Grizzlies could have panicked when star Rudy Gay was ruled out for the season following an injury in February – after all, he posted 19.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.7 spg and 1.1 bpg in 39.9 minutes during 54 games – but that wasn’t the case. Tony Allen took his place, and the whole team rose to the occasion.
The Thunder’s mid-season trade has breathed new life into the team as they finally have interior depth. The players who benefited the most were Serge Ibaka (seemingly improving by the second) and James Harden with Kendrick Perkins now guarding the paint.
So let’s take a look at the applicable matchups to determine who may have the upper hand in this series.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Mike Conley
Statistically speaking, there’s no contest. Westbrook averaged 21.9 ppg/8.2 apg/4.6 rpg/1.9 spg in the regular season vs. Conley’s 13.7 ppg/6.5 apg/3.0 rpg/1.8 spg.
During the Spurs series, Conley improved to 14.3 ppg, 6.2 apg and 4.5 rpg. Westbrook’s line in the Nuggets series was 23.8 ppg, 6.2 apg, 6.0 rpg.
Athletically speaking, again no contest. All-Star Westbrook is too quick, too fearless, too everything, for Conley to contain. Conley is solid and very good in the pick-and-roll, but he’s not at Westbrook’s level.
Westbrook’s confidence may have been shaken with the backlash hurled his way for his Game 4 performance (12-of-30 shooting and failed attempts to win the game by hoisting late erratic threes), but he remembered Durant was playing in Game 5.
Advantage: Thunder
Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Tony Allen
As Thunder fans know Allen turns it up a notch, a huge notch, when he plays this team. In the four regular season games against the Thunder, Allen posted a season-high average of 18.8 ppg, along with ten total steals. However, he also posted 17 fouls, the most against any team.
Sefolosha, like Allen, is lockdown perimeter specialist. As good as Sefolosha is (not offensively though), Allen’s intensity and leadership, both strong factors in the Grizzlies’ success, are clear advantages. Watch for Allen to share in duties to guard Westbrook if Conley struggles.
Advantage: Grizzlies
Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Sam Young
You can bet the Grizzlies are working on their game plan now trying to answer the magic question: How can Durant be limited?
Young will start in the position; a combination of Shane Battier, Allen and Young will do their level best to guard the wily forward, who happens to be the league’s back-to-back scoring champion and two-time All-Star.
Durant averaged 32.4 points in the Denver series (with 3.2 three-pointers per game) despite hands in his face and double-teaming efforts. His length and agility allows him to get a shot off from almost anywhere. Plus, he’s added "clutch" to his resume. Battier has the highest probability of playing the most minutes guarding Durant without fouling; his ability to alter shots cannot be overlooked.
Advantage: Thunder
Power Forward: Serge Ibaka vs. Zach Randolph -
The battle of the bigs is key to this game (we’re including Kendrick Perkins and Marc Gasol here, too). The Gasol/Randolph tandem was too much for the Spurs. Facing this type of size in the playoffs is precisely why Thunder general manager Sam Presti acquired Perkins and veteran Nazr Mohammed.
It’s imperative to note that the 3-1 Memphis vs. Thunder record in the regular season was without Perkins. Again, the bigs matchup is what to watch.
Randolph had an outstanding regular season and looks to repeat in the postseason. He averaged 20.1 ppg/12.2 rpg during the season and 21.5 ppg/9.2 rpg in the Spurs series. In Game 6, he scored 31 points (17 came in the fourth quarter) and grabbed 11 rebounds.
Ibaka, at only 21 years of age, is turning into a defensive beast and offensive threat. In the five playoffs game vs. Denver, he posted 10.2 ppg, 11.2 rebounds and 4.8 bpg (nine blocks in Game 5). In fact, he logged his best scoring and rebound record during the two road games in Denver.
In those four regular-season games, Randolph was guarded by ex-Thunder Jeff Green. It’s a different picture now with Ibaka in place.
Advantage: Even
Center: Kendrick Perkins vs. Marc Gasol
{AUTHOR_BOX}The difference here is that Gasol (14.2 ppg/12.3 rpg in Round 1) can play more effectively on both ends of the court, while Perkins (5.4 ppg/6.6 in Round 1) makes his money protecting the rim.
There’s a lot of unknown here since the two haven’t had the pleasure of meeting this year. Gasol is riding high on confidence and has answered the call to step up in the postseason. Tough-minded Perkins has played just 21 games in total with his new team. Is handling the 7’1" Gasol too much to expect? How will Gasol respond to Perkins’ considerably physical-style of play?
Advantage: Even
Bench: James Harden / Eric Maynor / Daequan Cook / Nick Collison / Nazr Mohammed vs. Darrell Arthur / O.J. Mayo / Shane Battier / Greivis Vasquez -
Harden is the man off the bench for OKC. With an increased role post-trade his confidence soared, but it hasn’t translated to an impressive level thus far in the postseason. He’s been solid, but tends to struggle away from his home court.
Westbrook’s backup, Maynor, has turned heads with his calm and cool ways, effectively directing the second unit. Many credit him for critical sparks in Game 1. Cook has been a disappointment so far in the playoffs, averaging less than one made three-pointer a game.
Collison remains the gritty defender who can lift this team and score (.611 fg% in the first round). Mohammed isn’t seeing a lot of playing time; he can aid with players in foul trouble.
It’s still odd to see O.J. Mayo, the third pick in the 2008 draft, drop from averaging 38.0 minutes per game his first two years in the league to 26.3 mpg this season. And in the first round, his playing time decreased even more to 22.3 mpg. He logged 9.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg and 1.7 apg vs. the Spurs.
Battier’s defense and veteran leadership should be instrumental in this matchup.
Arthur has been fairly solid. Conley’s backup, Vasquez, hasn’t had a lot of playing time, but he came up pretty big with Conley in foul trouble in Game 6 with 11 points at 4-of-8 field goal shooting.
Advantage: Even
Coaching: Scott Brooks vs. Lionel Hollins
Both coaches are relative newbies at this level of competition. They both have defensive-minded teams full of talented players; both have momentum entering the contest.
Hollins is to be commended for working through a ton of obstacles this season, most notably the loss of Gay.
Brooks, the 2009-10 Coach of the Year, has now led his team to back-to-back playoff appearances. The Los Angeles Lakers ended their dream in last year’s first round, but now they find themselves in the semifinals versus a team with many similarities.
It probably falls to Hollins to make more in-game rotation adjustments.
Advantage: Thunder
Prediction: Thunder in 7
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