- HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors - http://www.hoopsworld.com -

Playoff Preview: Thunder vs. Nuggets

Posted By Susan Bible On April 14, 2011 @ 4:30 pm In All,NBA | No Comments

How convenient that last week the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets gave us a big taste of what to expect in the first round of the 2010-11 NBA playoffs.  Twice even.  And both times, the Thunder came away the victor, 101-94 and 104-89.

Despite both squads losing their final game, they ended the regular season with nice momentum.  Thunder (55-27) lost only four of their past 20 games while Denver (50-32) had just six losses in their past 20.  For the season, OKC won the series over Denver (3-1).  The Thunder won the Northwest Division title, grabbing the fourth seeding with Denver ending up with fifth.

This marks the eighth consecutive playoff appearance for the Nuggets; of the past seven, six resulted in first-round defeats, and one resulted in a Western Conference finals loss to the Los Angeles Lakers (2009).

As for the Thunder, this is the second playoff berth in just three years since the franchise relocated to Oklahoma City.  It may be a different story this postseason with the team locking up home court advantage in the first round.  Those devoted OKC fans still present a college-type atmosphere which, in turn, feeds the young players.

Both teams have experienced a sort of mid-season re-birth with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups leaving Denver (in a nine-player deal) and Kendrick Perkins joining Oklahoma City at the expense of Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic (OKC’s deal affected seven players in total).  The Nuggets are 18-7 since the trade, and OKC is 19-7 since then.  Of course, Perkins was sidelined for some time with injury, but the trade has allowed Serge Ibaka to thrive in his natural position of power forward.

Denver, without a bonafide superstar, has found success in balance, i.e. eight players have averaged double-digit scoring since the All-Star break.  Heck, nine Nuggets scored in double digits a few days ago vs. the Golden State Warriors.

It appears a true division rivalry has developed between these two athletic teams that will likely extend for seasons to come.  The series promises intense excitement and a whole lot of up-and-down action on the court.

At first glance, the most obvious advantage for the Thunder is the good health of their players as opposed to the many injured Nuggets.

Point Guard:  Russell Westbrook vs. Ty Lawson

Newly-crowned All-Star Westbrook had nothing short of a breakout year now in his third season averaging 21.9 ppg/8.2 apg.  And last postseason, it was Westbrook, above all others, who stepped up his game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers.

Lawson, a full-time starter since Feb. 22, left Wednesday’s game with a sprained ankle, but coach George Karl reports he’ll be good to go for the first game on Sunday.  Lawson wasn’t quite as optimistic after the game.  Karl noted Lawson (11.7 ppg/4.7 apg) and Raymond Felton (11.5 ppg/6.5 apg) may open the series together in the backcourt.

Westbrook will probably continue to see his long shot tamed (he made zero three-pointers in the four season series games), but neither point guard is capable of stopping the bigger, fearless, determined Westbrook, who averaged 20.5 ppg/7.0 apg in those four season match-ups.

Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard:  Thabo Sefolosha vs. Arron Afflalo

Sefolosha is widely considered a premier lockdown perimeter defender and rightly so.  He’s not so much of a shooting threat, but he guards the best players in the league, and does it exceptionally well.

Afflalo returned earlier this week following a hamstring injury, but it tightened up, and he left the game.  He assures no playoff games will be missed, but this is a key situation to monitor as he is just not yet 100% healthy.

Advantage: Thunder

Small Forward:  Kevin Durant vs. Danilo Gallinari

Durant just clinched a repeat scoring title (27.7 ppg) and remains OKC’s greatest asset.  Expect Karl to roll out a number of players to try to limit his considerable offensive weaponry: from Gallinari to Kenyon Martin to Wilson Chandler (an underrated defender who has shown effectiveness against Durant) to Afflalo.  Note: Durant averaged 31.5 points with .488 field-goal shooting in the season series vs. Denver.  He will find his shots.

Gallinari should be fine following the right ankle sprain. The 6’10" athletic forward, brimming with confidence (watch for tempers to flare between Durant and Gallo) presents a unique match-up challenge.  He averaged 14.7 ppg/5.4 rpg in 14 games in Denver.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward:  Serge Ibaka vs. Kenyon Martin

The Nuggets captain may have a field day with the less experienced Ibaka.  Anxious to replace the memories of playing through injury last postseason, Martin is peaking right now.  Perhaps playing the lowest average minutes of his career this season (25.7) has well-prepared him for the playoffs.  In the seven games during April, he’s averaged 14.9 ppg and 7.6 rpg (compare that to his season average of 8.6 ppg/6.2 rpg).

{AUTHOR_BOX}Ibaka has revealed a deadly mid-range jumper to go along with his instinctive shot-blocking skills and sound defense.  The addition of Perkins enables Ibaka to roam free doing what he does, but he’s in danger of succumbing to Martin’s mental tactics.

Advantage: Nuggets

Center:  Kendrick Perkins vs. Nene

This is the match-up people are anxious to see.  In both Thunder/Nuggets games last week, the two big men nearly came to blows under the rim.  Just as Ibaka is susceptible to letting Martin get in his head, the same is true for Nene with regard to Perkins.

Nene is dealing with a strained left groin – even leaving Monday’s game because of it – but even at less than 100%, we suspect wild horses wouldn’t keep him from this showdown.   His free-throw shooting woes (.450 in April) – in fact, Denver’s team free-throw shooting (.765 vs. league-first Thunder at .823) in general – may be a huge factor.

In just 17 games (7.3 ppg/11.3 rpg), Perkins has successfully assumed a role the Thunder so desperately needed: an intimidating force under the rim.  Leave the scoring to all the capable players on his team; leave the paint to him.

Advantage: Thunder

Bench:  James Harden / Eric Maynor / Daequan Cook / Nate Robinson / Royal Ivey / Nick Collison / Nazr Mohammed / Byron Mullens / Cole Aldrich vs.  Raymond Felton / J.R. Smith /  Gary Forbes / Wilson Chandler / Al Harrington / Chris Andersen / Timofey Mozgov / Melvin Ely / Kosta Koufos

That balance we mentioned above extends to the Nuggets’ bench as virtually anyone can step up at any given time.  Their bench is impressively deep.  Felton is a starting-quality guard and Smith has the capability of getting real hot real quick (but Karl will have him on a short leash unless he demonstrates sound decision-making).

Andersen is 100% healthy and ready to do some damage.   Mozgov, still nursing his ankle and knee injuries, should return at some point in the series.  Chandler isn’t quite 100%, but plays through it anyway.  With Birdman back, the Nuggets will put aside plans to insert Harrington as the second unit center (it didn’t work against OKC), but he’ll get minutes.  Until Mozgov returns, perhaps even Koufos will see a little action.

The Thunder has a sixth-man-in-the-making with Harden.  After a relatively quiet first half of the season, Harden stepped into a much bigger role with the departure of Green.  With new-found confidence, Harden is a factor on both ends of the court.  Maynor, quite the opposite type of point guard from Westbrook, plays methodical ball and has proven he can lead the team well.

A nice bonus has been the recent three-point shooting threat Cook brings to OKC.  Collison continues to serve as a smart, gritty banger and veteran Mohammed adds depth, showing he can hold down the middle in spurts.  Mullens and Aldrich, the not-quite-ready-for-primetime-players, shouldn’t see much playing action.

Advantage: Nuggets

Coaching:  Scott Brooks vs. George Karl

Sure, Brooks is the reigning NBA Coach of the Year, but this is George Karl we’re talking about.  Can the student outplay the teacher?  Recall Brooks served as Karl’s assistant coach from 2003-06.

The issues Karl has faced of late (fighting through and beating cancer, keeping heads straight throughout the seemingly unending Melo-drama, melding all the new players into the existing roster, steering the post-trade group quickly into unexpected wins) has made him an even stronger coach, one who has learned the effectiveness of quiet leadership and mental toughness.  He missed the 2010 playoffs because of his illness; this time he’s ready to push his team as far as possible.

Advantage: Nuggets

Prediction:  Thunder in 6


Article printed from HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors: http://www.hoopsworld.com

URL to article: http://www.hoopsworld.com/playoff-preview-thunder-vs-nuggets

Copyright © 2012 HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors
Part of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group.