Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 2/1/12

1. Brett

   Hey Larry, wouldn’t you agree that if Dwight Howard will only give assurances to NJ about re-signing then LA would never trade both Pau and Bynum to Orlando? I see the Nets as a heavy favorite here putting the pieces of this puzzle together.

   • Larry Coon

     I don’t know which teams he’s given assurances to. All I know is that his people told the Lakers he’d test the free agent waters. Perhaps he told this to every team. If so, then it’s a matter of who’s willing to take the risk.

     But I don’t think the Lakers were ever considering sending both Pau & Drew to Orlando, even if they got assurances from Dwight that he’d stay.

2. Craig

   If Dwight does make it to free agency and winds up with the Nets, how do you see them filling out their roster with their remaining cap room? Do you see them resigning Lopez or trying to spread the money around for a deeper, more well-rounded roster?

   • Larry Coon

     I’d have to take a careful look to see if the Nets would be able to retrain Lopez if they sign Dwight (presumably for $19 million). Just adding it up in my head, it looks like they’d be at around $53.3 million with Dwight, Deron, Farmar and Shawne Williams (the latter two have player options), plus they’d have cap holds for their own and possibly Houston’s first round picks, and a few other cap holds as well. There may not be room.

     But if you have the opportunity to land a player like Dwight, you jump on it, and fill in the rest of the roster on the go.

3. Keith

   Hollinger proposes this trade for Dwight:

   “Because of Kris Humphries’ involvement it couldn’t be consummated until March 1 and can’t be done on the Trade Machine, but the deal is Howard, Chris Duhon and Hedo Turkoglu to New Jersey for Brooks, Humphries, Brook Lopez and Mehmet Okur. The Nets could actually get a $3.1 million trade exception for Lopez as well, while the Magic would get one worth $3.2 million for Duhon.”

   Basically it makes Orlando players in the free agent market this summer, right? Sounds like the best deal really as we get draft picks and major cap relief save Davis and Richardson’s deals.

   • Larry Coon

     I’ve always felt that New Jersey had the best shot at Dwight in a midseason trade. I haven’t checked the math (I’m sure John did before he wrote it up), but a deal like that would get Orlando some young assets, lots of cap relief, and I assume multiple draft picks. Orlando will need a total reset if/when they move Dwight, and this could be the quickest path to getting there.

     By the way, Humphries would have to consent to the trade, and when traded, would drop down to the one-year level of Bird rights.

4. David

   How is the restricted free agency of Aaron Brooks and Wilson Chandler going to be handled? Can those guys just accept a prorated portion of Phoenix’s and Denver’s (respectively) Qualifying Offers, play for them for a month, then hit UNRESTRICTED free agency this summer?

   • Larry Coon

     We’re past the deadline for accepting qualifying offers. Brooks and Chandler can negotiate regular contracts with Phoenix and Denver, respectively (once their Chinese obligations are complete and they have obtained Letters of Clearance). If those contracts are for the rest of the season, they will be unrestricted free agents this summer.

5. John B

   Does having a bunch of low cost contracts and salary cap space make doing trades more difficult under the new CBA? I’ve been using the ESPN trade machine, and I have to trade virtually half Kings contracts to get any quality non-rookie contract player.

   • Larry Coon

     Nope. Just like in the old CBA, teams can trade for as much salary as they’d like, as long as they end up under the cap. If a team has cap space, they can acquire guys making the amount of their cap room or less. The Kings are about $9.4 million under the cap right now — they can get anyone making that amount or less. If they moved someone like Salmons ($8.5 million) then they could trade fro someone making about $18 million. The tricky thing for the Kings would be to find a trade that makes sense from a basketball perspective, that doesn’t disrupt their core (now that they’ve confirmed that DeMarcus Cousins won’t be moved).

     Teams under the tax level actually have more flexibility for making trades now. They’ve relaxed the trade limits to the lesser of the outgoing salaries plus $5 million, or 150% (plus $100,000) of the salaries they are trading away (up from 125% plus $100,000 in the previous agreement).

6. James

   Does Beasley to the Lakers for the TPE and Caracter help both teams?

   • Larry Coon

     The Lakers need to make some pretty big changes, and I’m not sure Beasley really addresses any of them. It looks like their attention is focused on finding a point guard — as it should be.

7. Scott

   Why isn’t Mo Williams happy? He can opt out after this season and the 6th man role seems perfect for him. Do you see the Clips trading him and who could he return in a deal?

   • Larry Coon

     The Clippers have a lot of point guards, and Mo is playing behind CP3 & Billups. Any unhappiness would be over wanting a bigger role on the team.

     I think the Clippers like their backcourt situation, and like having Mo come off the bench — plus it takes pressure off Eric Bledsoe while he recovers. I don’t see them looking to trade Mo unless he asks to be moved. If they do, then they’ll look for more scoring punch from the 2nd unit.

8. paul in chicago

   7 game series Chicago and Miami, both at full strength, Chicago has home court advantage. In you opinion who wins?

   • Larry Coon

     I went public before the season picking Chicago to win it all this year. I haven’t seen any evidence to persuade me to change that selection. I also think the Bulls have a better opportunity to improve themselves by the trade deadline.

9. Dan

   Larry, Even if the Lakers were willing to give up Pau and Bynum for D12, is that a good deal for Orlando? Pau makes a TON of money, and Bynum is nearing FA soon.

   • Larry Coon

     Right — Bynum has a team option for 2012-13, but after that he’s a free agent. But that’s no different than Howard himself, who will become a free agent no later than next summer (and most likely, THIS summer). Combined the two make about $34 million, but Howard & Hedo (assuming they include Hedo in any package for Dwight) tip the scales at $29 million themselves.

     From a pure basketball standpoint, you can argue that a Lakers combo (if it were offered) of Bynum & Pau is the best they can get for Dwight. But given other considerations — cost, and length of contracts, you can see why they might favor a deal from Jersey.

10. Jose

    Is there any chance the Magic don’t trade Howard now?

    • Larry Coon

      Of course there’s a chance, but I think it’ll happen.

      It’s pretty clear that Dwight’s days in Orlando are numbered. If Otis Smith doesn’t complete a trade by the March 15 deadline, then Howard will exercise the ETO in his contract and become an unrestricted free agent. At that point, one of three things can happen:

      1) He can re-sign with the Magic (unlikely, even though the Magic can give him the most money).

      2) He can leave as a free agent, signing with a team that has enough cap room.

      3) He and the Magic can work out a sign-and-trade.

      A sign-and-trade used to be able to give the player more years & money than he could get by changing teams on his own, but no more. There is now no reason for the player to participate in a sign-and-trade, unless he’s a) doing his prior team a favor; or b) going to a team that doesn’t have the cap room to sign him directly.

      So let’s look at the teams on Dwight’s supposed A-List: New Jersey, Dallas and the LA Lakers (with perhaps Chicago and the LA Clippers on his B-List). New Jersey and Dallas will have the cap room to sign him directly, so he won’t need to go through the Magic to get there. In fact, he’s better off if he doesn’t, because he’ll have more assets around him once he gets there. The Lakers (and Clippers & Bulls) are capped out, so they’d need a sign-and-trade if he was going to go to one of those teams.

      If the ONLY teams on Dwight’s wish list were capped-out, then the Magic might want to rely on the fact that he can’t get to where he wants to go without a sign-and-trade. But two of the three teams on his wish list will have cap room. It’d be foolish to assume a sign-and-trade will be available. You’d have to consider my third scenario above to be unlikely.

      So by letting Dwight become a free agent, you’re weighing what you can get for him now in trade, versus the flexibility you’d have with an empty roster if he leaves:

      – If he leaves, they’ll still have Hedo, Richardson, Davis, Duhon and Nelson eating up cap room. There will be little if any cap space this summer.

      – If they trade him (say to New Jersey for ending contracts, Lopez, Brooks and picks) they’d be unloading some of their additional salaries, get a couple young players, and some extra draft picks.

      Seems like a no-brainer to me.

11. Arthur

    Larry,
    Do you believe Howard will be a net after the trade deadline?

    • Larry Coon

      I believe Howard will be traded, and I believe the Nets are the most likely destination.

12. Cody

    How does the Rose rule effect the Westbrook contract extension? Do the Thunder have any flexibility going forward to resign both Harden and Ibaka?

    • Larry Coon

      Westbrook is the Thunder’s designated player, so neither Ibaka nor Harden can get five year extensions. They can give the max to both (if they can afford it), but only for four years.

13. qaadir williams

    so what do you think of the clippers coming out of the west?

    • Larry Coon

      They’re still flawed, but so is every other team in the West. Right now I wouldn’t put them ahead of OKC (despite their big win over them the other day), and there are other teams out there that are certainly dangerous. They also lack being battle tested, a few players like Chauncey notwithstanding. I think they’d be exceeding expectations if they come out of the West this season.

14. Steve

    Larry, are the Lakers willing to part with both their first round picks, or do they plan to keep them and build for the future? Toronto has a Spanish PG that could fit that system well, but I’m sure Toronto would want at least one of those picks for him.

    • Larry Coon

      I think the picks are something the Lakers would be willing to throw into a deal. They’ve only got a couple years left with Kobe playing at a high level, and want to make the most of it.

15. Abdullah Aloglu - Turkey

    How much salary cap will Celtics have next year? Is it really enough to sign 2 max contracts? If so, do you think they can be contender again next year? (whether DH12 choose Boston or not)

    • Larry Coon

      Right now they have Pierce at $16.8 million, Rondo at $11 million, Johnson at $1.1 million, Bradley at $1.6 million, Moore NG’d at the minimum, and Bass has a player option at $4.25 million. They’ll have their own first round pick, and might have the Clips’ or Minnesota’s. So they’ll have somewhere in the neighborhood of enough money to sign one max player, not two. If they got Dwight I wouldn’t rule them out. Anyone else who might be available? I’d have to look at what they have when they’re done.

16. mike

    When the question about W.Chandler being signed by the Raps came up in the EPincus chat, he indicated that its not possible for Toronto to sign him this year as you may have more details as to why. Could you clarify why/or why not the Raps will be able to make an offer to W.Chandler… Thanks

    • Larry Coon

      Players can’t sign offer sheets after March 1. Will Chandler be free and have a Letter of Clearance by then?

17. chris

    Is there a way Chicago could get Wilson chandler in a s&t from Denver when he’s done in china?

    • Larry Coon

      No. Sign-and-trade deals are no longer allowed once the season starts.

18. Jim

    Hollinger suggested a trade between Atlanta and the Lakers. LA gives up Pau in exchange for Teague and Josh Smith. Who says no first?

    • Larry Coon

      I think this is the kind of trade LA should be looking for. Pau is getting older, and still hasn’t found his place in Mike Brown’s offense. You can blame this on Brown (and I do), but it is what it is. I think someone like Smith might be a better fit, and would give them a much better PG to run the offense. If I’m the Lakers, I give this serious consideration. But if I’m Atlanta, do I do this deal? If I’m them I probably try to move the older, more expensive, and coming-off-injury Kirk Hinrich instead of Teague.