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Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 5/20/11
Posted By Larry Coon On May 20, 2011 @ 8:44 am In All,NBA | No Comments
Larry Coon the noted author of the CBAFAQ, will answer your Salary Cap and Collective Bargaining Agreement questions. Larry will answers your questions about the Salary Cap, NBA trades and the upcoming CBA talks. Larry gets started at at 3pm EST
Larry Coon:
Welcome to the chat, everyone! The draft is tomorrow (and all the trade rumblings that go with it), plus the league & players are kicking the negotiatons into high gear. Lots to talk about…
John, I hear they explored the idea of taking Williams #1 and then the BPA at #4, but as of this week have decided against that idea and are pretty much locked-in with Irving as the first pick. But they say they won’t make their final decision until tomorrow, in consultation with Dan Gilbert. Who knows…you may still get your wish.
Larry Coon:
And that’s exactly how Spurs’ GM R.C. Buford likes it.
Larry Coon:
They see Hibbert as one of their core guys, and shot down this idea. Personally, I think it’s worth considering, depending on whom they project to be available at 15.
Larry Coon:
With the current rules DeAndre is a restricted free agent. So two things could go wrong: 1) Restricted free agency can go away; or 2) We could get a hard cap, and they won’t be able to afford to re-sign him.
I haven’t seen any indication that restricted free agency is in danger (the players obviously don’t like anything that restricts their ability to move, but they’ve got bigger fish to fry right now), and the Clippers have one of the lower payrolls in the league right now (and still would even after a Kaman-Iggy swap). Plus the league is already backing-off the idea of a hard cap (it’s now a softer, "flex cap").
So yeah, if I’m Olshey, I take the risk.
Larry Coon:
Proably Harris, but I guess it also depends on what teammates I surround him with.
Larry Coon:
I’m still trying to get details on the owners’ proposal, but it sounds like it’s different from what you describe. They’re shooting for a soft cap…er…"flex" cap at a median salary of about $66M, and there will still be exceptions — Stern/Silver named Bird and the Mid-Level specifically. There would also be a hard cap somewhere above that, but they didn’t specify how much higher it’d be.
So — and this is just the owners’ latest proposal, which isn’t necessarily how it’ll end up — it looks like there will continue to be some ability for teams to retain their own free agents. How much ability that would be is still unknown.
Larry Coon:
Yes.
(Shortest answer of the day.)
Larry Coon:
An Al Jefferson for Andre Iguodala trade would be something the Sixers would at least have to consider. The problem is that Jefferson doesn’t represent much salary savings, especially when compared to Kaman. The Sixers are contemplating a move at least in part for financialr reasons.
Larry Coon:
I think he’s a better GM than a lot of people give him credit for. That said, Rubio has yet to play a game in the NBA, and people penciling him in with the likes of Deron Williams, Derek Rose & Chris Paul are jumping the gun. I expect the team to improve this year, but it’ll take a couple more years before we can really judge how effective Kahn has been.
Larry Coon:
I’ll refer you to Eric Pincus’ chat, where you asked & got an answer to the same question.
Larry Coon:
Right now the Celtics are committed to nearly $65 million in 2011-12 — and that’s wthout Jeff Green.
I don’t think they’re going to be major players in the free agent market, beyond mid-level signings (assuming we still have a mid-level). Does Yao sign for the mid level?
The Celtics have one more year left on KG’s and Allen’s contracts. They’ll look to retool in another year.
Larry Coon:
It depends on the question. If the question is "Will my team be able to sign X?" or "Will this trade work," then you’re right — it’s speculation. We can make INFORMED speculation based on what we know about the sides’ positions and how the negotiatins are going, but it’s still essentially speculative.
I try to make that point clear when answering these types of questions. That said, there’s plenty else to talk about that doesn’t rely on speculation, and I try to focus on those questions as well.
Larry Coon:
I don’t think that his age has anything to do with it. I’ll also point out that he always signs one-year contracts, and can be out of a job at any time with a no-confidence vote.
And Stern isn’t even the chief negotiatior here — Adam Silver is. Each side (this goes for the players as well) are working to get the best deal possible for their constituents. Either side is willing to go past July 1 if they can get a better deal out of it. It’s only when it goes so far that it impacts the upcoming season that things get dicey — and it becomes a trade-off between the gains via further negotiation vs. the bad effects of a continued work stoppage.
So all things considered, I don’t think your premise is based in reality.
Larry Coon:
Ultimately it really does come down to that. The revenue guarantee is the primary controlling factor over how much money the players get.
The players have been adamantly against a hard cap even in principle — which I think is counterproductive. OF COURSE they’d take a hard cap if it was, say, $100 million per team, and goes up by $10 million each year (just to use an extreme example).
So it’s not the concept of a hard cap itself that they should be worrying about. It’s agreeing to one with parameters they can accept, where the revenue guarantee ensures they get the appropriate share of revenues.
Larry Coon:
Teams plan their rosters many years in advance, based on the rules that are in place at the time. When the league changes the rules, they usually do something to accommodate those teams, because their previous decisions are impacted by those rule changes. For instance, in 2005 they changed the way the luxury tax system works, so they added an amnesty provision to allow teams to make adjustments.
This time they’re talking about changing the way the salary cap itself works, so it’s reasonable to assume they’ll make provisions for teams to adjust their rosters to accommodate those changes. If it’s another amnesty provision (and it’s reasonable to assume it will be), then it will allow teams to waive a player and not have him count against the cap (not just the luxury tax like in 2005).
A hard cap will level the playing field more, so you’re right — teams will have to rely more on skill and strategy.
Larry Coon:
I think they go with Lawson, so that makes Felton somewhat expendible. There are a nuimber of teams that can use him, so I’d call around and see how much I can get for him.
Larry Coon:
Not by the current rules. It’s one of the things NY (and Miami for the same reason) had to consider when bringing those two together. It’s hard to fill out the rest of the roster. And if they tighten up the cap and/or exceptions in the next CBA, it’ll be even harder.
Larry Coon:
The real issue really is the revenue split. The owners’ strategy was to cut the total money going to the players — enough to put the league as a whole in the black — then use revenue sharing from there to bring up the poorer teams and level out the playing field. At that point, rule changes — hard cap, etc. — would help with competitive balance and to keep the entire system in stasis.
The owners’ first proposal — deducting $900 million in expenses, then spliting profits 50/50 — asked for more than they needed to accomplish the above. But this is a negotiation, and that’s what you do — ask for more, then negotiate down from there.
Larry Coon:
Nash, Kobe, ‘Bron, Duncan & Shaq.
Larry Coon:
The ‘stache has been gone for a while, but the occasional older picture continues to persist.
I never thought we’d end up with a true hard cap. I always said it’d be a "harder" cap, with fewer & weaker exceptions. it looks like they’re slowly converging on that idea.
I don’t think there will be a lot of dealing, becaue many teams will want to wait & see how the new CBA turns out. For example, if a team makes a big financial dump and later gets an amnesty clause, then maybe they wouldn’t have made that financial dump in the first place. Any deals you see are going to be the kinds of deals teams would want to make anyway, no matter how the new CBA turns out.
Larry Coon:
Well, none. They can’t sign anybody through June 30, and on July 1 (or whenver they have an agreement) we’ll have a new CBA. So any free agent signings will be under the terms of the next CBA, not this one.
Larry Coon:
They CAN trade future draft picks. They just can’t make a trade that leaves them without a future pick in two consecutive years. For example, if a team doesn’t have its 2013 pick, then it can’t trade either its 2012 or 2014 pick, but it can trade it’s 2015 pick.
The rule is in place because a previous owner of the Cavs, Ted Stepien, mortgaged his team’s future by trading away all its future picks in bad trades. This rule keeps this sort of situation from happening again.
Larry Coon:
No. Any player who’s about to be a free agent (or even MIGHT be a free agent because of an option) can’t be traded.
Larry Coon:
They can trade it if it’s worded to say that they’re trading whichever of those picks they actually end up with.
Larry Coon:
The luxury tax is based on the rosters as of the team’s final regular season game. So any roster changes at this point won’t affect the tax.
Larry Coon:
2010-11. Salaries switch over on July 1.
Larry Coon:
Not in any meaningful way.
Larry Coon:
I’m still trying to pin down the details. From what I gather, a flex cap is a lower soft cap and a higher hard cap. But I also heard mention of flexible spending, where extra money spent one year needs to be made up in later years.
Larry Coon:
He’s the face of their franchise, and so far Nash hasn’t asked to be traded.
Larry Coon:
Yes, one of the owners’ recent proposals called for rollbacks of 15-25 percent.
I should note that the players already accepted a form of salary rollback when they agreed to the escrow system.
Larry Coon:
I think the owners moved a lot farther than I expected them two. But the two sides are still saying they’re miles apart. It doesn’t look like a deal will get done prior to July 1, barring an unexpected breakthrough.
But this also happened in 2005, and they settled their disagreement before it impacted the season. It could happen again this time. July 1, therefore, is somewhat of an artificial deadline. Yes, there will be a lockout, but it won’t really impact much.
Larry Coon:
They’ll have to do some sort of one-time thing, like a weighted lottery that includes all 30 teams.
Larry Coon:
Correct. They’d have to agree to a trade which is consummated after this year’s draft.
Larry Coon:
They didn’t say.
Larry Coon:
And then joining ZZ Top.
Larry Coon:
Thanks. We’re getting slammed a lot with people who do that. We’re trying to keep an eye on it, but it’s hard to keep track of every question asked in every chat.
Larry Coon:
Correct. In that regard, a non-guarnteed deal is better than an ending deal. The player IS signed for the following year, but the team also has the option to waive the player afterward.
Larry Coon:
Part of it comes from the simple laws of physics. He weighs less, so when he takes the same contact as a bigger player, it’s going to affect him more. It’s the same principle that worked against Shaq.
Larry Coon:
Like it or not, it’s a part of the game right now.
I don’t like that particular solution, since it just changes the problem from one person’s subjective judgement (the ref’s) to another’s (Van Gundy’s). I’d rather see a rule change. I don’t like the idea that defense is played by beating a guy to a spot by a milisecond. I’d rather see the rule be that on drives, the guy with the ball has to be able to take one dribble AFTER you get to the spot for it to be a charge.
Larry Coon:
Top-10 players from that draft, or re-draft based on team needs? I’ll go with the former — taking into account team needs from 11 years ago is too much to ask from a one-hour chat.
The 200 draft is unusual in that you can make a solid case that the guy who should have been picked first overall was acutally picked in the second round — Michael Redd.
I’ll go Redd with the first pick and K-Mart with the second. After that you’re looking at a group that includes Stro Swift, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Hedo Turkoglu, Q-Rich, Jamaal Magliore, Marko Jaric, and let’s say Jake Tsakalidis.
I’d put them in order, but if I did that I’d have to spend too much time thinking about this draft class, and I’d just get depressed. If I had a lottery pick in this draft, I would have done everything in my power to trade it for a pick in the 2003 draft.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20.
That’s it for today — I went a little long because I had so many questions. Apologies to those I missed.
Look for more from Larry Coon on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/LarryCoon, become a fan of the Salary Cap FAQ on Facebook, and find the FAQ itself at http://www.cbafaq.com.
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