Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon 6/22/11
Larry Coon the noted author of the CBAFAQ, will answer your Salary Cap and Collective Bargaining Agreement questions. Larry will answers your questions about the Salary Cap, NBA trades and the upcoming CBA talks. Larry gets started at at 3pm EST
i think cavs should go williams at #1 i think he can fill that lebron roll he has size and power and shooting i think Kyrie Irving will be next Chris Duhon once was great PG now garbage and at #4 go knight or walker or get a SG or C
Larry Coon:
Welcome to the chat, everyone! The draft is tomorrow (and all the trade rumblings that go with it), plus the league & players are kicking the negotiatons into high gear. Lots to talk about…
John, I hear they explored the idea of taking Williams #1 and then the BPA at #4, but as of this week have decided against that idea and are pretty much locked-in with Irving as the first pick. But they say they won’t make their final decision until tomorrow, in consultation with Dan Gilbert. Who knows…you may still get your wish.
spurs is like that team no one care about or hear about they are worst than a ghost becuz people talks about ghost n no1 talk about spurs
Larry Coon:
And that’s exactly how Spurs’ GM R.C. Buford likes it.
If you were the GM of the Pacers and were offered the #2 pick for Roy Hibbert and #15 pick. Do you accept the trade? Why or why not?
Larry Coon:
They see Hibbert as one of their core guys, and shot down this idea. Personally, I think it’s worth considering, depending on whom they project to be available at 15.
If you were the GM of the Clippers, do you trade Kaman before resigning Jordan. I realize Iguodala is a great SF to compliment Gordon and Griffin, BUT we have no idea what the new cba is gonna look like. Gamble or wait.
Larry Coon:
With the current rules DeAndre is a restricted free agent. So two things could go wrong: 1) Restricted free agency can go away; or 2) We could get a hard cap, and they won’t be able to afford to re-sign him.
I haven’t seen any indication that restricted free agency is in danger (the players obviously don’t like anything that restricts their ability to move, but they’ve got bigger fish to fry right now), and the Clippers have one of the lower payrolls in the league right now (and still would even after a Kaman-Iggy swap). Plus the league is already backing-off the idea of a hard cap (it’s now a softer, "flex cap").
So yeah, if I’m Olshey, I take the risk.
If you were starting a team from scratch, which point guard from this list do you choose and why? Jose Calderon, Devin Harris or Kyle Lowry
Larry Coon:
Proably Harris, but I guess it also depends on what teammates I surround him with.
The new hard cap proposal is $62. If that stands as it is how will this affect the mavericks ability to sign all their free agents this summer?
Larry Coon:
I’m still trying to get details on the owners’ proposal, but it sounds like it’s different from what you describe. They’re shooting for a soft cap…er…"flex" cap at a median salary of about $66M, and there will still be exceptions — Stern/Silver named Bird and the Mid-Level specifically. There would also be a hard cap somewhere above that, but they didn’t specify how much higher it’d be.
So — and this is just the owners’ latest proposal, which isn’t necessarily how it’ll end up — it looks like there will continue to be some ability for teams to retain their own free agents. How much ability that would be is still unknown.
Can restricted/unrestricted FAs be added in multi player trades if they agree to a S&T?
Larry Coon:
Yes.
(Shortest answer of the day.)
I dont like al jefferson, I would like to see a trade for iggy. Any chance the jazz make a move like that? They need defense and it would give a chance for favors to play more minutes. who should the jazz pick?
Larry Coon:
An Al Jefferson for Andre Iguodala trade would be something the Sixers would at least have to consider. The problem is that Jefferson doesn’t represent much salary savings, especially when compared to Kaman. The Sixers are contemplating a move at least in part for financialr reasons.
good day larry! so is david kahn a genius now? he brought rubio in minny and has many assets team wants.. seems like his moves are effective at all.. thanks!
Larry Coon:
I think he’s a better GM than a lot of people give him credit for. That said, Rubio has yet to play a game in the NBA, and people penciling him in with the likes of Deron Williams, Derek Rose & Chris Paul are jumping the gun. I expect the team to improve this year, but it’ll take a couple more years before we can really judge how effective Kahn has been.
texas has 3 teams why dont nba move rockets out bring rockets to canada since stern is all about is money he would make alot
Larry Coon:
I’ll refer you to Eric Pincus’ chat, where you asked & got an answer to the same question.
Does the celtics have enough to sign two FA? Can you see Yao coming to boston?
Larry Coon:
Right now the Celtics are committed to nearly $65 million in 2011-12 — and that’s wthout Jeff Green.
I don’t think they’re going to be major players in the free agent market, beyond mid-level signings (assuming we still have a mid-level). Does Yao sign for the mid level?
The Celtics have one more year left on KG’s and Allen’s contracts. They’ll look to retool in another year.
Larry, with the pending CBA situation. A chat based on salary cap is pretty much smoke and mirrors? NO ONE KNOWS. PURELY speculation? I know some find it intriguing? I don’t. Let’s talk about something tangible?
Larry Coon:
It depends on the question. If the question is "Will my team be able to sign X?" or "Will this trade work," then you’re right — it’s speculation. We can make INFORMED speculation based on what we know about the sides’ positions and how the negotiatins are going, but it’s still essentially speculative.
I try to make that point clear when answering these types of questions. That said, there’s plenty else to talk about that doesn’t rely on speculation, and I try to focus on those questions as well.
Stern doesn’t seem 2 interested in gettin a deal done! Considering his age and the amount of money he has made should owners be weary of his desires? Maybe step up and get a deal done sans STERN?
Larry Coon:
I don’t think that his age has anything to do with it. I’ll also point out that he always signs one-year contracts, and can be out of a job at any time with a no-confidence vote.
And Stern isn’t even the chief negotiatior here — Adam Silver is. Each side (this goes for the players as well) are working to get the best deal possible for their constituents. Either side is willing to go past July 1 if they can get a better deal out of it. It’s only when it goes so far that it impacts the upcoming season that things get dicey — and it becomes a trade-off between the gains via further negotiation vs. the bad effects of a continued work stoppage.
So all things considered, I don’t think your premise is based in reality.
Good Day Larry, So long as the players are guaranteed a % of revenue they can accept, why does it matter whether there is a "flex cap" or hard cap or whatever?
Larry Coon:
Ultimately it really does come down to that. The revenue guarantee is the primary controlling factor over how much money the players get.
The players have been adamantly against a hard cap even in principle — which I think is counterproductive. OF COURSE they’d take a hard cap if it was, say, $100 million per team, and goes up by $10 million each year (just to use an extreme example).
So it’s not the concept of a hard cap itself that they should be worrying about. It’s agreeing to one with parameters they can accept, where the revenue guarantee ensures they get the appropriate share of revenues.
Great analysis. Are you optimistic the CBA will include an amnesty program for teams to buy out bad contracts (Andris Biedrins, Golden State)? Wouldn’t a hard cap make GMs be more skilled and strategic, which would be better for the league?
Larry Coon:
Teams plan their rosters many years in advance, based on the rules that are in place at the time. When the league changes the rules, they usually do something to accommodate those teams, because their previous decisions are impacted by those rule changes. For instance, in 2005 they changed the way the luxury tax system works, so they added an amnesty provision to allow teams to make adjustments.
This time they’re talking about changing the way the salary cap itself works, so it’s reasonable to assume they’ll make provisions for teams to adjust their rosters to accommodate those changes. If it’s another amnesty provision (and it’s reasonable to assume it will be), then it will allow teams to waive a player and not have him count against the cap (not just the luxury tax like in 2005).
A hard cap will level the playing field more, so you’re right — teams will have to rely more on skill and strategy.
If you were the GM of the Nuggets, and were offered the #7 pick for Raymond Felton. Do you accept the deal? Why or why not.
Larry Coon:
I think they go with Lawson, so that makes Felton somewhat expendible. There are a nuimber of teams that can use him, so I’d call around and see how much I can get for him.
Is there a way Melo and Stat take a pay cut during a duration of their contract if it helps bring another studd, because as constructed they wont be able to bring much!
Larry Coon:
Not by the current rules. It’s one of the things NY (and Miami for the same reason) had to consider when bringing those two together. It’s hard to fill out the rest of the roster. And if they tighten up the cap and/or exceptions in the next CBA, it’ll be even harder.
Hi larry, The Pincus story, "Inching Toward Resolution", suggests to me the owners’ various demands were just artificial ground where they can give while the real issue is the % revenue split. True?
Larry Coon:
The real issue really is the revenue split. The owners’ strategy was to cut the total money going to the players — enough to put the league as a whole in the black — then use revenue sharing from there to bring up the poorer teams and level out the playing field. At that point, rule changes — hard cap, etc. — would help with competitive balance and to keep the entire system in stasis.
The owners’ first proposal — deducting $900 million in expenses, then spliting profits 50/50 — asked for more than they needed to accomplish the above. But this is a negotiation, and that’s what you do — ask for more, then negotiate down from there.
If you were to start from scratch and would choose between Kidd or Nash, Kobe or Wade, LeBron or Durant, Duncan or Garnett and Shaq or Dwight. for arguments sake let’s say they’re all in their primes at the same time.
Larry Coon:
Nash, Kobe, ‘Bron, Duncan & Shaq.
Hey Larry, No stache ????what up ? No cap, hard cap, flex cap…. what’s the prevailing feeling ? With the upcoming draft, and all the rumors that follow, is it wise to wheel & deal without a new CBA??
Larry Coon:
The ‘stache has been gone for a while, but the occasional older picture continues to persist.
I never thought we’d end up with a true hard cap. I always said it’d be a "harder" cap, with fewer & weaker exceptions. it looks like they’re slowly converging on that idea.
I don’t think there will be a lot of dealing, becaue many teams will want to wait & see how the new CBA turns out. For example, if a team makes a big financial dump and later gets an amnesty clause, then maybe they wouldn’t have made that financial dump in the first place. Any deals you see are going to be the kinds of deals teams would want to make anyway, no matter how the new CBA turns out.
AS of right now current CBA how much financial flexibility does the BULLS have in terms of signing free agents?
Larry Coon:
Well, none. They can’t sign anybody through June 30, and on July 1 (or whenver they have an agreement) we’ll have a new CBA. So any free agent signings will be under the terms of the next CBA, not this one.
Why cant teams trade future draft picks? I know there is a rule in place but what is the point of it? How does it help anything other than restrict trades?
Larry Coon:
They CAN trade future draft picks. They just can’t make a trade that leaves them without a future pick in two consecutive years. For example, if a team doesn’t have its 2013 pick, then it can’t trade either its 2012 or 2014 pick, but it can trade it’s 2015 pick.
The rule is in place because a previous owner of the Cavs, Ted Stepien, mortgaged his team’s future by trading away all its future picks in bad trades. This rule keeps this sort of situation from happening again.
Hey Larry, I have a question only you can answer. J-Rich’s contract expires this summer, but can he still be traded on draft night? I thought contracts expire July 1st. Thanks Larry
Preciate it. Larry Coon:
No. Any player who’s about to be a free agent (or even MIGHT be a free agent because of an option) can’t be traded.
Is it possible to trade a pick that has an option to get swapped put on it? Example 2016 NY 1st rd pick. Can they trade that?
Larry Coon:
They can trade it if it’s worded to say that they’re trading whichever of those picks they actually end up with.
When are teams required to pay the luxury tax and/or final salary checks to players? Reason I ask is: is there an advantage for teams to unload contracts prior to the expiration of the CBA?
Larry Coon:
The luxury tax is based on the rosters as of the team’s final regular season game. So any roster changes at this point won’t affect the tax.
If you make a trade during the draft do they go by the 2010-11 salaries or 2011-12?
Larry Coon:
2010-11. Salaries switch over on July 1.
Do you think Iverson still has a chance to help any NBA team?
Larry Coon:
Not in any meaningful way.
What are the significant differences between a flex cap, and a soft cap?
Larry Coon:
I’m still trying to pin down the details. From what I gather, a flex cap is a lower soft cap and a higher hard cap. But I also heard mention of flexible spending, where extra money spent one year needs to be made up in later years.
Why do the Suns want to keep Nash and not trade hime to a contender. What’s their deal?
Larry Coon:
He’s the face of their franchise, and so far Nash hasn’t asked to be traded.
Has there been any discussion of salary rollbacks in new CBA? I would imagine players would opt for hard cap long before they’d ok a salary rollback.
Larry Coon:
Yes, one of the owners’ recent proposals called for rollbacks of 15-25 percent.
I should note that the players already accepted a form of salary rollback when they agreed to the escrow system.
Am I crazy to think there won’t be a lockout based on the movement we saw Tuesday? With the owners essentially offering a 50/50 split and holding most all of the cards in the long run, do expect the players to cave without losing any games?
Larry Coon:
I think the owners moved a lot farther than I expected them two. But the two sides are still saying they’re miles apart. It doesn’t look like a deal will get done prior to July 1, barring an unexpected breakthrough.
But this also happened in 2005, and they settled their disagreement before it impacted the season. It could happen again this time. July 1, therefore, is somewhat of an artificial deadline. Yes, there will be a lockout, but it won’t really impact much.
If there is no season next year, what happens to the 2012 draft?
Larry Coon:
They’ll have to do some sort of one-time thing, like a weighted lottery that includes all 30 teams.
Larry, Can the Clippers trade the Minny pick they have for next right now or do they have to wait until after the draft this year to move it? If they trade it now, they could be w/out a first-rounder this year and next, correct?
Larry Coon:
Correct. They’d have to agree to a trade which is consummated after this year’s draft.
Any idea what the proposed "flex cap" ceiling was from the owners?
Larry Coon:
They didn’t say.
Serious question here: in the end, do you anticipate Stern unveiling a new lockout-beard?
Larry Coon:
And then joining ZZ Top.
Just so you know the first question of the day has been asked in every chat for the last 3 days
Larry Coon:
Thanks. We’re getting slammed a lot with people who do that. We’re trying to keep an eye on it, but it’s hard to keep track of every question asked in every chat.
Larry, but non-guaranteed contracts can be traded, right? What is the difference between team-option and the non-guaranteed contract?
Larry Coon:
Correct. In that regard, a non-guarnteed deal is better than an ending deal. The player IS signed for the following year, but the team also has the option to waive the player afterward.
Its hard not to love JJ Barea. He dominated in the finals at times as a small man amongst trees. BUT did you notice how often he imbellished contact to get calls. I realize everyone did it, but seemed like him more than most. Agree or Disgaree?
Larry Coon:
Part of it comes from the simple laws of physics. He weighs less, so when he takes the same contact as a bigger player, it’s going to affect him more. It’s the same principle that worked against Shaq.
Jeff Van Gundy volunteered to watch game tape all year and fine anyone caught blatantly flopping. If you were a NBA Team owner, how would you vote on this proposal and why?
Larry Coon:
Like it or not, it’s a part of the game right now.
I don’t like that particular solution, since it just changes the problem from one person’s subjective judgement (the ref’s) to another’s (Van Gundy’s). I’d rather see a rule change. I don’t like the idea that defense is played by beating a guy to a spot by a milisecond. I’d rather see the rule be that on drives, the guy with the ball has to be able to take one dribble AFTER you get to the spot for it to be a charge.
if you had to do you top 10 of 2000 draft lets see your pick
Larry Coon:
Top-10 players from that draft, or re-draft based on team needs? I’ll go with the former — taking into account team needs from 11 years ago is too much to ask from a one-hour chat.
The 200 draft is unusual in that you can make a solid case that the guy who should have been picked first overall was acutally picked in the second round — Michael Redd.
I’ll go Redd with the first pick and K-Mart with the second. After that you’re looking at a group that includes Stro Swift, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Hedo Turkoglu, Q-Rich, Jamaal Magliore, Marko Jaric, and let’s say Jake Tsakalidis.
I’d put them in order, but if I did that I’d have to spend too much time thinking about this draft class, and I’d just get depressed. If I had a lottery pick in this draft, I would have done everything in my power to trade it for a pick in the 2003 draft.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20.
That’s it for today — I went a little long because I had so many questions. Apologies to those I missed.
Larry Coon the noted author of the CBAFAQ, will answer your Salary Cap and Collective Bargaining Agreement questions. Larry will answers your questions about the Salary Cap, NBA trades and the upcoming CBA talks. Larry gets started at at 3pm EST
Hiho, So how much trade activity shd we expect between 6/14-7/1? Will the lockout or the unknown CBA be the bigger influence? Thanks.
Larry Coon:
Hi everyone. The season is drawing to a close, as the NBA Finals got underway last night. Sadly, I’m not there, but I -am- here to chat hoops (and hoops business) with you.
There are competing influences. On one hand, some teams might want to rush to make deals prior to June 30. With an uncertain future given the looming lockout, these teams might want to get their houses in order before taking a forced long vacation, deal with potentially expiring players now, or spend trade exceptions that are due to expire during the summer.
On the other hand, there are going to be big economic changes and a whole new set of rules, so other teams might want to hold off to see what changes the new CBA brings before formulating a plan.
In the end, I think we’re going to see both — some deals that come as a result of the impending lockout, and some teams standing pat, waiting to see what happens.
Give me your honest prediction of the lockout. How long will it last and WHAT will the new rules BE, in your opinion.
Larry Coon:
These things always seem to last until the very last minute. Especially this year, since the two sides are so far apart.
The owners want to make huge, sweeping changes to the eccnomy of the league. They need the union in order to achieve this — they can’t do it unilaterally, because that’d be an antitrust violation. But the union is not going to agree to such huge concessions. The owners’ only real option is to break the union. This isn’t something that’s going to be settled short-term. They’re in it for the long haul. And it’s going to get messy — the players have already filed a complaint with the NLRB, and are keeping the option of decertification available.
In the end, I think we’ll see soemthjng somewhere between the two sides’ current positions, but closer to what the owners are seeking than what the players are seeking.
If Detroit were to trade away its #8 pick, when can it trade away its 2012 first? After the selection is made on draft night, or does it need to wait until next season?
Larry Coon:
The Ted Stepien rule says teams can’t trade draft picks that leave them without a future pick in consecutive years. As soon as the 2011 draft is over, their 2011 pick is no longer a future pick, and the 2012 pick can be traded.
Am I coming back?
Larry Coon:
For those who haven’t heard, Shaquille O’Neal just announced his retirement. Adios, big fella.
What would it take for both sides to reach an agreement for the lockout? What are the main issues?
Larry Coon:
The biggest, overriding issue is the amount of money that goes to the players. The players are currently guaranteed 57% of gross revenues. It’s an economic system that the league views as broken, and they want to fundamentally alter the way the pie is split. Everything else is really just a means to that end.
For the labor agreement, is there a chance for anything like a 40 Mil hard cap for 12 players and 1 player outside the cap? That way each team can get a star and owners can keep costs under control?
Larry Coon:
Right now the owners are asking for a $45 million hard cap, but of course in any negotiation both sides start out asking for the moon and the stars, and slowly work their way somewhere in the middle. In the end, I think we’ll end up with a cap that’s "harder," but not a true hard cap (i.e., a cap with zero exceptions).
The league also appears to recognize that the superstar players deserve to make the lion’s share of the money, and appear to be trying to shape some of the rules (such as their version of a franchise tag) to ensure that these players are taken care of.
Larry, What about a trade rumor of GS Monta Ellis for #2 this year (essentially I imagine Derrick Williams)? This would benefit both teams, wouldn’t it?
Larry Coon:
It’d help the Warriors financially, to be sure. Might have some merit.
Stern said retaining an entire season is going to be difficult now. Still think they won’t start playing again until the day before deadline that would cancel the season?How much of the problem is owners vs players as opposed to owners vs owners?
Larry Coon:
As the lockout progresses they’re going to have to start shaving games off the season. When they’ve lost enough games, they’re going to reach a point where they can no longer legitimately call it a season, and they’ll decide to cancel it entirely. Last time this happened (1998-99) they reached that point in mid January, and of course, they came to an agreement at the last moment. I’m guessing this year it’ll be pretty much the same.
There is dissention between owners (primarily it’s big market vs. small market), but they’re working together to agree to implement things like increased revenue sharing, and Stern presents the owners positions as one cohesive whole. The owners are a lot closer together than the owners & players. In the words of Stern, "there’s a gulf, not a gap."
55 million cap, win win for everybody?
Larry Coon:
You mean hard cap? Because it’s not much more than that now, and the league sees the system as broken. A hard cap around that amount would go a long way (assuming salaries are rolled back commensurately), and likely would be something the owners would agree to. But the players would probably go kicking & screaming.
Assuming MLE exists in the next CBA and works the same way. If a team is below the salary cap by less than the MLE can they still use the MLE instead of their cap space?
Larry Coon:
If it’s there and it works the same way, then yes.
Tell me, am I crazy for thinking this could happen? Gil opts out next year. Gets $40 mil owed over more years ala R-Jeff. Hedo gets cut via amnesty. ORL right back in the thick of FA in 2012. Thoughts?
Larry Coon:
I read as far as "Gil opts out next year" before concluding that yes, you are indeed crazy.
if there is a hard cap of 45-50 million next year, even with an amnesty clause wouldn’t just about everybody in the league have cap issues? How are teams going to solve this without that clause and a overall reduction in current salaries?
Larry Coon:
That’s just it — they want to roll back current contracts. Their latest proposal calls for reductions of 15 percent to 25 percent, depending on salary level.
Hey Larry, What can the suns do with Vinsanity 18.3 (4 mil guaranteed) contract before June 30th? Will any team want to jump the gun and try and get the cap savings before the new CBA is worked out?
Larry Coon:
I know there are some guarantee issues with that $18.3 million, so he might have extra value this year as an ending contract. But with big CBA changes likely to occur, I think teams are more likely to wait and see what happens with the new agreement than make a move that makes sense under the current agreement, but might not make sense under the new one.
Is there anyway the clippers can make a trade to get a SF. And can my Knicks get a center or sg this offseason
Larry Coon:
Yes, I think a SF is on the top of their shopping list, and they have the assets (Kaman and Minny’s #1 pick next season) to acquire one. At the top of their list are guys like Danny Granger and Andrre Iguodala.
The Knicks traded away a lot of serviceable guys to land Melo, and this is part of the price they paid, they now have multiple holes, and not much ability to plug them. They’re going to need help from the new CBA.
Could you please explain the ted stepien rule and it’s implications on trading future first round picks.
Larry Coon:
I did something pretty thorough a couple weeks ago, looking at why the Clippers weren’t able to protect the #1 pick they sent to Cleveland in the Baron Davis trade:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=6564663
If Dwight Howard declines the two-year extension, which he’s expected to do, will he necessarily be leaving money on the table? Couldn’t he make more money signing a long-term, max deal (even with the Magic) as an unrestricted FA next summer?
Larry Coon:
He won’t necessarily be leaving money on the table, because the new CBA could affect current contracts and extensions as well. At this point, comparing a new contract signed under the next CBA to an extension that takes effect under the next CBA is pretty meaningless. There’s just no way to compare them with the information we have.
I think players who opted out last summer and signed a new contract (like Dirk) are more lilely to be better off than guys whose contracts or extensions take effect under the next agreement (like Kobe & Dwight), but really — nobody’s safe.
Could Gilbert Arenas opt of his contract and get the $40 mil owed over more years like Richard Jefferson did with the Spurs? His relationship would Otis would lead you to believe he could.
Larry Coon:
The problem — well, A problem — is that Gilbert’s already signed to 2014. It’s questionable whether they’d even be able to add more years. And if it looks like Orlando is trying to do it strictly for the purpose of cap manuevering, the league could nix it under its general prohibition on circumvention.
What do you think the difference of D on Dirk between the Heats and Thunders? I think the Thunders also doubled him alot, but why the Heats’ scheme works well? Please answer.
Larry Coon:
Miami’s just been playing unreal defense lately. Dirk simply didn’t see this against the Thunder, and certainly not against the Lakers.
Will J. Noah’s new contract make him tough to trade? Will he be a base year compensation player or does this change with the new CBA?
Larry Coon:
He is subject to base year compensation next year, if the rules remain the same (and he’s a poison pill player right now). That makes him tougher to trade, but I think that’s fine with the Bulls, who don’t intend to trade him anyway.
Thoughts on Shaq’s retirement???
Larry Coon:
I think it’s time. You knew that injuries were going to catch up with him eventually, and frankly I’m surprised he was able to last as long as he was.
One of the all-time greats, and he will be missed.
Please tell me what it would take to get nene to the Knicks
Larry Coon:
He’s opting out from $11.6 million dollars, and he’s going to want to be paid. The Knicks won’t have the ability to sign him directly, and there’s probably not going to be a sign-and-trade that makes sense. (No, giving Melo back isn’t an option.)
In the event of a lockout, will players be able to play overseas? Also, there hasn’t been much talk of contraction recently, is it still a possibility? If so, which franchises would be in the most danger?
Larry Coon:
Players would need a Letter of Clearnace to play in any FIBA league. Players who are under contract won’t be able to get one.
I think contraction was mainly an item for the negotiation, but the more I look at the league’s finances, the more I think it might be a viable option. Some franchises are just not going to make a profit, which is going to cost the rest of the league dearly. At some point it makes sense to fold a team rather than to continue to prop it up, despite the enormous PR hit contraction would entail.
what happens if the union decertifies? does that mean that every player becomes a free agent with no restrictions whatsoever?
Larry Coon:
Existing contracts will still exist. In fact, without a union, the owners may no longer be able to withhold salary, meaning the players could sue to be paid. But there would be no protections at all — no salary cap, no minimum salaries, no maximum salaries — in fact, no draft rights either. Kyrie Irving could simply go to the highest bidder. This is one reason the league imposes a lockout — it ceases business until they get a new set of rules.
if a hard cap forces teams to unload salary, would it force the heat to waive my contract through amnesty?
Larry Coon:
I don’t think they’ll ever put teams in a situation where they’ll be forced to waive some of their most productive players.
Are the Lakers going to retire my Jersey?
Larry Coon:
Yes. But after Kobe’s is retired.
Lockout for sure? And how will it affect Heat big 3?
Larry Coon:
It’s always possible that the two sides will come to an agreement. Roger Mason, one of the union vice presidents, tweeted today that he’s heading into a meeting between the players and the league this afternoon. The real question is, how likely is it that the league and players sort out all their differences before June 30?
I think it’s not very likely. The two sides have dug their heels in with their respective — and opposite — positions, and so far haven’t even agreed on the fundamental state of the league. I think a deal will only come when the pressure is really on — when they are faced with a looming choice between getting a deal done immediately, or canceling the season entirely.
Can orlando move their trade exceptions in the draft to move up, and does the lockout begin before or after the draft?
Larry Coon:
First thing’s first — teams don’t move trade exeptions. A trade exception is just a slot, into which teams can absorb players without sending out commensurate salary in return. But it does mean just that — Orlando has an opportunity to acquire players in lopsided (financially) trades.
The lockout is imposed after the draft. The current season (and CBA) runs through June 30. On July 1, the lockout starts.
What would it take to get Ellis to Chicago? Could we get him without giving up Noah? Doesn’t seem likely. Who can Chicago realistically get at the two that’s an upgrade?
Larry Coon:
I’m not sure Ellis is the best fit for Chicago. I think they need someone who doesn’t need the ball as much as Monta.
I also think Chicago wants to keep their core group of players together. I think it’s very unlikely they move Noah.
One of the big topics of the new CBA is the MLE going away. Why make it go away when you could just make it non-guaranteed like other contracts?
Larry Coon:
You can lump the changes the owners are looking for into two categories — those that effect the economy of the league, and those that help level the playing field.
For the league economy, the only thing that really matters is the 57% guarantee, and the formula they use to calculate it (i.e., 57% of what). Even if all contracts were non-guaranteed and teams started waiving players left & right, the players as a whole are guaranteed that same 57%, so the league’s economics remain the same.
Other economic changes are really just a means to that end. The presence or absence of exceptions, and the guarantees, really have more to do with keeping things balanced within the pool of money the league guarantees the players. The league wants a more rigorous system, because when you allow exceptions, you essentially force teams to overspend — because the teams need to use the rules to their geatest advantage in order to stay competitive. So the leage wants to get rid of exceptions (including the MLE) as well as reduce guarantees.
Salut Larry, Monta Ellis for Andre Iguodala? Monta would remind Philly’s fans a famous "20 points-undersised" shooting guard and Iguodala brings defense, size and athleticism in Oakland
Larry Coon:
Golden State needs some size, and needs to do something about their backcourt, which is (as with the team itself) undersized and weak defensively. Iguodala would be an interesting fit, and would probably complement Steph Curry better than Ellis does.
If I’m Philly I like Ellis’ ability to be the #1 option on offens. Still, I’m not moving AI because I want to — I’m moving him primarily because I need to from a financial standpoint. The two players are signed for the same number of years, and Ellis doesn’t make that much less than Iguodala. I’m not sure it provides as much payroll relief as they’d want.
nxt season which team has d most cap space?r d hornets one of them?thanks
Larry Coon:
We can’t project anything about cap space until we know how the CBA is going to look. We can make assumptions — for example, if we assume a $45 million hard cap, a rollback of all existing contracts of 15 to 25 percent, and an amnesty clause, then we can project what kind of cap room teams may have.
But those are all hypothetical, and next to useless. At this point, the best we can really do is look at the commitments teams have right now, and see which teams have the least committed. These figures are rough — they don’t include things like cap holds for unsigned draft picks, trade exceptions, etc.
That said, Sacramento is in the "lead" with only about $29 million committed. Next comes Indiana with about $36 million. Other teams with low commitments for 2011-12 include Denver, the LA Clippers, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington.
do u believe in d recent statement of DH12 dat he wil not leave orlando?
Larry Coon:
Here’s the thing: Players who have no intention of leaving often make statements like that. And players who have every intention of leaving also make statements like that (at least publicly, while privately demand that the team trade him). This is even more true lately, since the league has been fining players who make their trade wishes public (see Rudy Fernandez).
So you can’t conclude anything from public statements like that. To me, the most telling sign is that an extension wasn’t signed a long time ago (he’s been eligible for about a year). There’s rumors that a two-year extension is being negotiated — we’ll see. It’ makes a certain amount of sense to get it done before the current CBA expires.
Okay everyone, time’s up. Thanks for your questions. The chat was swamped today, and there were a few dozen questions I couldn’t get to. Apologies to those I missed.
Look for more from Larry Coon on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/LarryCoon, become a fan of the Salary Cap FAQ on Facebook, and find the FAQ itself at http://www.cbafaq.com.
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