HOOPSWORLD’s Senior NBA Analyst Tommy Beer takes you through his weekly musings on the National Basketball Association in his latest installment of The NBA Six Pack…
 
1. Referee Roulette
As exciting and entertaining as this weekend’s games were for NBA fans across the country, unfortunately, one of the main talking points on Monday was the officiating down the stretch of close contests.  Whenever anyone is talking about the referees, it is typically never a good thing.  And this was no exception.  In the first two games of the postseason on Saturday afternoon, the free-throw discrepancy was alarming.  The home teams (Miami and Chicago) combined to attempt 71 free-throws, while the road teams (Indiana and Philadelphia) went to the charity stripe just 32 times.  Then, in the Saturday nightcap, Portland coach Nate McMillan lashed out at the refs in his postgame press conference and was subsequently fined $35,000 by the NBA league office. 
 
Regrettably, Sunday produced its fair share of drama as well.  The New York Knicks felt they got the short end of the stick on a couple of late calls in Boston. Later on, the non-call on Kendrick Perkins’ offensive basket interference late in the fourth quarter of OKC’s victory over the Nuggets was such an obvious oversight, the league issued a statement confirming what we all knew – the refs had blown the call.
 
However, I am not going to use this space to bash NBA officiating.  The fact of the matter is, these guys are human.  Inevitably, they will make mistakes.  Often, those mistakes (the result of literally split-second decisions) favor the home team, which has 20,000 fans screaming in support of them.  Recent studies published in multiple news outlets have indicated that research shows refs (in all sports, all over the world), when they do make a bad call, often error on the side of home team.  Apparently an element of peer pressure is at play, even if it is at a subconscious level. 
 
Moreover, regardless of studies and such, we all know that refs will make mistakes.  Or at least, we should know.  Consider this: The league’s best players, even those with the highest FG%, miss about 40%-50% of their shots on any given night, right?  Even the most sure-handed point guards usually turn the ball over a few times each game, correct?  My point being that even the most talented athletes in the world, individuals that have nearly mastered their craft, often "mess up." 

Thus, should we expect anything less from referees?  Are they going to make flawless decisions every tine they step on the floor?  Should we really be shocked or outraged when perfection isn’t delivered? 
 
Does this mean that Nate McMillan or fans in Denver don’t have the right to be upset?  Of course they do.  Busting your gut for 47 minutes, only to have the outcome decided by a bad whistle is insanely frustrating.  No one would deny that.  However, elite teams, championship teams, win in spite of blown calls.  If I’m a coach taking my team into a place like Boston or Oklahoma City, I tell my guys that we have to build a four or six-point cushion heading into the final few possessions of the game.  I let my team know that we have to anticipate a couple of calls going against us down the stretch; that if we have built up a strong enough lead, we’ll be able to withstand even the worst of calls in crunch time. 

Moreover, even after Carmelo Anthony was called for a bogus offensive foul with 20 seconds left in the Knicks/Celtics game, New York still had the lead.  Had they stopped the C’s on the other end of the floor, or converted on their final possession, the Knicks still could have won.

I’m not looking to make excessive excuses for the refs.  I agree it’s a shame when fans and media are forced to focus on anything other tan the players on the floor.  However, refs have always made mistakes, and it won’t stop anytime soon.  It is up to the best players and best teams to overcome "unfair" adversity.  
 
2. Cinderella(s) Have Arrived
In a previous edition of the Six Pack last month, I discussed the unlikelihood of NBA teams replicating the success of mid-majors and lower seeds knocking off the top dogs during NCAA’s March Madness.  As was detailed, one of the reasons the NCAA tourney is so unique and exciting is because of its one-and-done format.  As opposed to the NBA, where the better team usually advances in a best-of-7 series, college upsets are obviously far more frequent because David has to win just one game in order to eliminate Goliath. 
 
We saw this play out in full effect over just a few hours on Sunday, when the undermanned Hornets knocked off the mighty Lakers in their Game 1 showdown, shortly after the eighth-seeded Grizzlies shocked the Spurs in San Antonio.  It was the first time in NBA history (since they switched to the 16-seed format) that both the #1 and #2 seeds both lost Game 1 of the first round series.  In addition, every road team held a lead at one point in each of the first round contests this weekend.  In fact, most had a very good opportunity to win. 
 
However, as we know, the underdogs still have an enormous mountain to climb.  Instead of beating a powerhouse just once, the small fries have to emerge victorious three more times.  We shall see if these Memphis or New Orleans squads have what it takes to complete the monumental upset.  

 
3. Defense Wins Championships. (No, really, it’s true…)
It’s a cliché as old as the game itself.  "Offense wins regular season games, but defense wins championships."  Well, after studying some stats, it turns out that it may be more than just a trite expression… 

There are always plenty of unpredictable aspects of the NBA playoffs.  However, recent history teaches us that at least one factor has remained constant: Only teams that defend well advance to deep into the postseason.  Over the last four NBA seasons, dating back to 2007, no team that finished outside of the top six in Defensive Efficiency Rating has advanced to the NBA Finals.  Not once.  Yes, all eight teams (8 out of 8) that made the Finals over the last four seasons ranked 6th best or higher in DefEff during the regular season.

Looking at the number this season, this principle is further enforced.  12 teams allowed over 101 points per game during the 2010-2011 regular season, and just two made the playoffs (Knicks and Nuggets).  Seven teams had an opponent’s eFG% above 51%; all seven failed to qualify for the postseason.      

On the other hand, 14 teams allowed less than 98 ppg during the regular season: 12 of those 14 teams qualified for the playoffs.  If you prefer to use Effective FG% as a determining metric – Of the 12 teams ranked highest in eFG% against, 11 made the postseason tournament (Milwaukee was the only team which didn’t).

The numbers paint a pretty clear picture.  The teams that defend have been the only teams playing for a ‘chip in June.

For those interested, the teams that finished in the Top 6 in Defensive Efficiency this regular season were (in order) the Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, Miami HEAT, and Dallas Mavericks.   

4. Dunks of the Week:
* Nene had a handful of delicious dunks in Game vs. OKC, but we’ll highlight this poster on Nick Collision 
 
* Amar’e is a MONSTER
 
* From the end of the regular season, Tyreke Evans put his name in the conversation for Dunk of the Year: 
 
* Not a YouTube clip, but this is a great picture: http://twitpic.com/4mgukm   
 
 
5. Tweets of the Week:
@AndrewMBogut: MMMMMMULLET http://twitpic.com/4mmn1f
 
@alanhahn: Melo could have dribbled into Lawrence Frank when he was on the court, like Jason Kidd did to Mike Woodson last year. Then it’s a tech.
 
@thenyknicks: Case of the Mondays? Listen & glisten as you click away on the Clyde soundboard: http://ow.ly/4CWhH

@TommyBeer: Some "respected" journalists think G Hill and Bogans are better defenders than Howard, and Cuban has beef with bloggers?!?! haha

@KnicksFanBlog: My guess for who Morey will hire to replace Adelman? An iPad 2.

@teamziller: RT @ChrisMottram: Von Wafer with the best premature mean-mugging of all-time: http://sbn.to/eYTPnm
 

6. Elias Sports Bureau Stats of the Week
* Chris Paul put on a show on Sunday afternoon as his Hornets beat the Lakers, 109-100, in the opening game of their playoff series. Paul attained levels of points (33), assists (14) and rebounds (seven) that had been reached only four times in 3,272 previous NBA playoff games – and then only by NBA royalty (Oscar Robertson twice, Walt Frazier and Magic Johnson). And Paul was the first player ever to reach those levels in a game played on the enemy’s court.
 
{AUTHOR_BOX}And if you believe in past history, you can argue that never has winning Game One of a series loomed more important. For one thing, Phil Jackson, as a head coach, has never lost an NBA playoff series, of any length, in which his team won the first game; his teams are 48-0 in a series after winning Game One. And as if that wasn’t enough to put New Orleans on notice, the Hornets have lost all seven best-of-seven series in which they lost the first game.
 
* As brilliant as Paul was, the Hornets may not have won Game One without the off-the-bench contributions of Aaron Gray (5-for-5) and Jarrett Jack (5-for-6). In all, the Hornets substitutes made 16 of 22 field-goal attempts, a rate of 72.7 percent. In the last 20 years of NBA playoffs, there have been only two other games in which a team’s substitutes shot for such a high percentage while making at least 15 field goals. The Bucks got a 75-percent shooting performance by their subs in a win over Detroit on April 29, 2006, and the Suns’ subs hit 74 percent in a win over the Lakers seven days later.
 
* Kevin Durant scored 41 points and Russell Westbrook added 31 in the Thunder’s four-point win over the Nuggets. Oklahoma City became the third team in NBA history to have one player score more than 40 points and another player chip in more than 30 in its playoff opener. The others teams to begin the playoffs in that fashion were the Philadelphia Warriors in 1962 (43 points for Paul Arizin and 32 for Wilt Chamberlain vs. Syracuse) and the Celtics in 1973 (54 points for John Havlicek and 34 for Jo Jo White vs. Atlanta).
 
* Ray Allen’s three-point field goal with 11.6 seconds remaining provided the final points in the Celtics’ 87-85 win over the Knicks. Allen is renowned as one of the greatest shooters in NBA history – both for accuracy and clutch ability – but Sunday’s shot marked only the second time in his pro career that he has made a field goal to put his team ahead in the last 24 seconds of a playoff game. The other occasion came two years ago, when his three-pointer with two seconds remaining lifted the Celtics to a 118-115 win over the Bulls in Game Two of a first-round series.
 
* Zach Randolph scored 25 points and Marc Gasol added 24 to lead the Grizzlies to a win in their series opener at San Antonio, the first playoff win in franchise history. The Grizzlies had lost their 12 previous playoff games, the longest losing streak in the history of the NBA playoffs. Randolph and Gasol each scored 20 or more points in the same game only once during the past regular season; that was in a 120-92 romp over the Kings on February 26, the second-largest margin of victory for Memphis all season.
 
* The Grizzlies made 55.2 percent of their field-goal attempts in winning Game One in San Antonio. This was the 90th home playoff game for the Spurs since 1998 (the Gregg Popovich/Tim Duncan era) and only the second of those games in which the Spurs permitted a team to shoot 55 percent or higher from the floor. On May 30, 2005, the Suns made 57.1 percent of their field-goal attempts in taking a 111-106 decision at San Antonio in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals, but the Spurs wrapped up the series in the next game and went on to defeat the Pistons for the NBA title.

 
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