Where Do The Thunder Go From Here?
The moment the final buzzer sounded at the end of Game Five of the Western Conference Finals, Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder dropped to his knees and covered his mouth in disbelief. In a scene eerily similar to Game Four, the Dallas Mavericks again came from behind in the fourth quarter to claim victory. There would be no more chances for the Thunder; this time, the series was over with Dallas clinching the conference title (4-1).
With the Mavericks advancing to the NBA Championship Finals, the Thunder was left pondering how they let the two final games in the series slip through their fingers. Both games were lost down the stretch: in Game Four with 5:06 left, Dallas orchestrated a 27-6 run (including an overtime period), and in Game Five with 5:49 left, Dallas went on a 17-6 run.
In effect, the Thunder scored 12 points in nearly 16 minutes of play in two of the most important games of their young franchise history.
Conventional thinking suggests these back-to-back breakdowns signal deep trouble on both ends of the court. Some teams would resolve to undertake a roster shake-up. Others may consider firing the coach or the general manager.
In the Thunder’s case, the conference final events are critical parts which make up the process of learning how to play championship basketball.
Granted, the Thunder has seemingly accelerated through the normal course of the growing process. The fact the team went from a 23-59 record in 2008-09 to 50-32 in 2009-10 (including a first-round playoff appearance) was a real testament to the many tools already coming together for OKC.
As a result, expectations were sky high this season for the team to make even more noise. They did not disappoint.
A 55-27 record this season gave the Thunder home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, followed by home-court again in the second round. OKC triumphed over a revamped Denver Nuggets (4-1), as well as a near-equally young Memphis Grizzlies (4-3), but the more experienced Mavericks stopped them dead in their tracks in the conference finals.
Experience did indeed prove to be the key factor. Youth has its advantages in many instances, but not against a veteran Mavericks team.
The sheer amount of career playoff appearances by Dallas’ top players – Dirk Nowitzki (120), Jason Terry (79), Shawn Marion (88) – towers over the experience of the top Thunder players – Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden (23). However, the playoff experience of Oklahoma City’s newest member, Kendrick Perkins, does rival the Mavs (85), which was a significant reason the Thunder found him so attractive.
In the conference finals, the average age of the Mavs’ starting lineup was 32.4 vs. the Thunder’s average of 23.4. Further, the Mavs’ second unit averaged 31.25 years of age vs. the Thunder’s 24.75 (Nazr Mohammed was not considered as he played just a total of 6:26 minutes over the whole five-game series).
So the question begs….where do the Thunder go from here?
The easy answer is to learn how to close out playoff games. The Thunder was 8-2 in regular season overtime games and 14-7 in games decided by three points or less. They can finish off games; now it needs to translate in the postseason.
As a team, the strengths are easily identified:
• Free-throw shooting. The Thunder was ranked first in the league in the number of free throws made…by over 300 shots. They were also first in free throw percentage.
• Steals. They were ranked sixth in the league.
• Rebounds. The Thunder was ranked eighth in the league. Team rebounding is one of their calling cards.
• Blocks. The Thunder was ranked second in blocks. They don’t call Ibaka “Iblocka” for nothing.
• Scoring. They were fifth in average points per game (104.8); this was quite an increase from the 14th ranking last season.
• OKC’s top two players (Durant and Westbrook) placed in the top ten Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and top ten in Usage percentage.
These clear weaknesses must be addressed in the offseason:
• Fouls. The Thunder was third in personal fouls.
• Long-distance shots. Three-point shooting ranked 18th in league.
• Defense. Last season, OKC was 11th in opponents’ points per game (98.0); this season, they dropped to 18th (101.0). The team’s Defensive Rating plummeted to 15th this year from last season’s ninth ranking – the loss of assistant coach Ron Adams was difficult to overcome in the early-going.
• Decision-making. This simply comes from experience. Don’t ever relax, even when it looks like the game is going to be won.
Maybe a better question is “where do each of the Thunder players go from here?” To that end, we’ll break it down, beginning with the starters:
Kevin Durant:
2010-11 season: Durant started the year with a gold medal in tow and MVP title from his outstanding work in the FIBA Worlds Tournament. During the season, he was voted in as an All-Star starter, as well as being named to the All-NBA First Team. He averaged the highest points per game (27.7 ppg) and highest total points (2,161) for the second year in a row. Compare regular season box scores between 2009-10 and 2010-11, and you may be surprised to learn Durant’s numbers fell across the board.
Status: In July, 2010, Durant signed a five-year contract extension worth around $86M, which puts him in OKC through the 2015-16 season.
Where does Durant go from here? Durant has to learn to execute down the stretch. He needs to learn how to create his own shot. Be assertive. Shortcomings tend to be exposed in the postseason; a glaring one was his inability to post up stronger, even shorter, defenders. After the season ended, 215-lb Durant recognized he must get stronger.
Russell Westbrook:
2010-11 season: His game grew by leaps and bounds amid out-of-control national scrutiny. His numbers improved in nearly every category. Westbrook, the Thunder’s second-leading scorer, was named an All-Star Reserve and to the All-NBA Second Team. He became the fifth player in NBA history to record 4,000 points, 1,500 assists and 1,000 rebounds in just three NBA seasons (after Chris Paul, LeBron James, Anfernee Hardaway and Oscar Roberston). He was fourth in total assists and third in total steals league-wide. He registered three triple-doubles (tied for second) and 31 double-doubles.
Status: In the event a new collective bargaining agreement is in place by the deadline, Westbrook will be eligible for a contract extension as of July 1, 2011. He wants a future in OKC, and the feeling is mutual.
Where does Westbrook go from here? He was first in total turnovers in the league; that’s got to change. Shooting percentages must improve. As he digs deeper into figuring out the most difficult position in basketball, his decision-making should get better.
Kendrick Perkins:
2010-11 season: The level of praise heaped up on the Thunder for the mid-season acquisition of post defender Perkins was seemingly equaled by the disappointment thrust his way by the season’s end. And that’s a shame. The affect Perkins had on the team since his arrival can be measured: 1) OKC’s defense improved by nearly four points per game when he joined his new team on court, 2) The roles of James Harden and Serge Ibaka were allowed to expand, to great success, 3) Nene’s field-goal shooting percentage dropped from .615 in the regular season (league leader) to .478 with Perkins assigned to him in the first round. Marc Gasol’s dropped from .527 to .490 in the seven-games series of the second round, and 4) Positive influence over the young Thunder players. Durant indicates “when Perk talks, we listen”. The Dallas match-up was not a favorable one for Perkins; wait until he’s 100% and benefits from training camp with his teammates. In just 17 regular-season games, Perkins averaged 7.9 rebounds. His career high? 8.1 rpg.
Status: The Thunder signed Perkins to a four-year contract extension worth around $36M before he stepped foot on the floor.
Where does Perkins go from here? Perkins was operating at approximately 65% health, so obviously he needs to totally rehabilitate over the summer. He aims to lose twenty pounds by the start of next season. Presti vows to get him back to his old playing self, even better; he’s only 26 years old, so that’s not an unrealistic goal. Perkins’ value is not in his scoring; however, the Thunder wouldn’t mind a return to the 10.1 ppg recorded in 2009-10.
Serge Ibaka:
2010-11 season: Ibaka was virtually unknown last season; that was not case this year. To start with, Ibaka was ranked first in the league in total blocks. He was eighth in field-goal percentage. Plus he appeared in the Dunk Contest at the All-Star games. Ibaka was able to play his more natural position of power forward following the Perkins trade, thereby allowing him to athletically roam free to block and grab balls and display a nice mid-range jumper.
{AUTHOR_BOX}Status: Ibaka’s contract is good through next season (at an astounding $1.2M), then a team option is in effect.
Where does Ibaka go from here? Ibaka did not necessarily shine in the playoffs; it goes to show that the 21-year-old still has much to learn. He was ranked fifth in personal fouls which must improve.
Thabo Sefolosha:
2010-11 season: Sefolosha is an outstanding defender, but many of his numbers fell this season; however his Defensive Rating slightly improved. The things he does on the floor don’t always show up on stat sheets.
Status: Sefolosha is under contract until 2013-14.
Where does Sefolosha go from here? Develop a reliable offensive game to go along with the amazing defense.
Now, let’s look at the Thunder bench:
James Harden: A recipient of additional playing time when Jeff Green, et al. departed, Harden answered the call. In games where he checks the nerves at the door, he shows exactly why Presti chose him #3 in the 2009 draft. The 21-year-old is the very definition of the word “versatile”. His playmaking skills were in superb form in the final game vs. the Mavs; in fact, he logged better scoring, rebounds, assists and FG% in the playoffs over the regular season. This is huge, considering his disappointing postseason play last year. Perhaps the biggest question of all facing the Thunder concerns Harden: Is it time to insert him in the starting lineup over Sefolosha? Or does Harden best serve the team in the sixth man role? Harden’s contract is set for 2011-12, and a team option follows.
Nick Collison: If Collison failed to prove his worth thus far, he certainly did in the playoffs. Even Rick Carlisle, head coach of the Mavericks, said Collison demonstrated why he’s one of the best post defenders in the league during the Thunder’s three playoff series. He’s just got what it takes: timing, basketball IQ, hustle and tremendous work ethic. Collison is locked in until the 2014-15 season.
Eric Maynor: Maynor is one fine backup point guard to Westbrook. He has the ability to come in and calm things down while almost always making the right decision. His contract extends through next season, then a team option kicks in.
Daequan Cook: OKC has a couple options with Cook due to his qualifying offer for next season; either way, we suspect he stays. He’s shown good long-distance shooting, and provides valuable spacing. Consistency is desperately needed though.
Nazr Mohammed: Nazr brings a much-needed veteran voice and presence to this team. He is an unrestricted free agent, and while Presti declines to comment on his future with the organization, Nazr recently tweeted his desire to return to the Thunder. He needs to stay.
As for the rest of the roster players – Nate Robinson, Royal Ivey, Byron Mullens, Cole Aldrich – it’s all speculation, but Robinson is probably gone. Ivey doesn’t get to play much, but he’s a good third point option and just an all-around great locker room guy. Aldrich appears to have a better upside than Mullins; perhaps Mullens is sent to Europe while they slowly try to work Aldrich in the system.
And, finally, the lesser-known others: Robert Vaden was called down from the NBA Development League late in the season, but saw no playing time. Tibor Pleiss spent the season in Europe, and Latavious Williams logged time in the D-League. Time will tell.
Scott Brooks: There was no shortage of criticism of Brooks’ decision-making toward the end of the season and later, into the playoffs. Of course, Westbrook was the recipient of the harshest censure, but Brooks came in a solid second. He did finally show a willingness to change up rotations. It’s doubtful anyone will forget the decision to bench Westbrook in favor of Maynor the entire fourth quarter in Game 2 vs. Dallas. Further, that game was their only victory in the series. Brooks is undergoing a learning process, too.
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As for offseason events, we expect the Thunder will make no significant free agent signings in order to preserve funds for re-signing players.
They have the 24th pick in the 2011 draft; names such as Kyle Singler and Tyler Honeycutt have been floating around. They would be wise to find a potential back-up to Durant.
In the end, building a championship NBA team takes time and perseverance with talented players and dedication by all to getting better every year. Put a checkmark by each of those.
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